More interesting data regarding Covid

[Guest]

How does this chart fit your criteria for "hard data"? It's worldwide, and doesn't say which countries (and which approaches) correlate to lower vs. higher death rates. More important, the chart is labelled as being "challenged" by the inability to assign causes of death -- that's a fairly big hole in the data.

Obviously, the number of "confirmed" cases is going to be lower than the total number, for both death and asymptomatic diagnoses. In most developed countries, such as the US, confirmed cases should be close to the actual total. If you look carefully at the page, there is the option to click in any country you'd like, such as the US. The purpose of the chart is not to suggest any approach. It does strongly suggest, however, a change in the virulence of the virus. Here's the US's data, for example

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-deaths-and-cases-covid-19?country=~USA

[former lurker]

Sweden didn't do "nothing". That's the propaganda lockdown alarmists in the "news" media want people to believe. They want people to think that everyone is dying over there, that old & sick people are being dragged out of their homes & into the streets to get infected.

 

The reality is Sweden took a reasonable/responsible approach to deal with SARS-CoV-2 that worked well enough for them, better than our fear-based approach worked here, that's for sure!

 

Alarmists were initially predicting Sweden to suffer 75K-100K deaths without embracing draconian lockdown measures... I just checked, & their Covid death number is 5,053 or 0.05% of their population. The U.S. Covid death rate is already up to 0.037%, & that's WITH creepy authoritarian lockdown orders that resulted in millions of people becoming unemployed + a crippled economy rivaling the Great Depression. Sweden's economy actually grew slightly in the first 2020 Q, their people weren't forced to lose their jobs, their kids didn't have to miss school, + none of their citizen rights/freedoms were violated by their government, like we had ours violated here.

 

Where Sweden failed was in not doing enough to protect old people in nursing homes, about half their Covid deaths came from those places. That's something the U.S. & other countries around the world also failed to do tho.

 

Perhaps you don't read the other posts. See any number of them outlining all of the pertinent differences between Sweden and the U.S. that explain why the approach in Sweden does not compare to what would have happened in the U.S. had we followed their approach. For one, few if any Swedes would espouse the view that lockdowns, if ordered, were "draconian". They followed the guidance voluntarily. They don't harbor the same paranoid view of their government that you do.

[Guest]

Sweden didn't do "nothing"....

Where Sweden failed was in not doing enough to protect old people in nursing homes, about half their Covid deaths came from those places. That's something the U.S. & other countries around the world also failed to do tho.

Pretty close to nothing. My understanding is that all they did was ban indoor events with over 50 people. Correct me if I'm wrong. Sweden gambled the lives of their elderly, given the dearth of knowledge we had on Covid-19 transmission at that time (mid-March). As it turned out, they appear to have had a relatively mild strain of the virus, and their death rate, while much higher than their neighbors', was not catastrophic. Had the seniors been more adequately protected, the rates would almost certainly have been substantially lower. Yet even in Sweden, as I understand it, their healthcare system wasn't overwhelmed. Despite the laissez-faire approach, their death rate was lower than Italy's, Spain's, or Belgium's. This seems to point to the importance of particular virus strains/virulence in determining outcomes.

I will say that Trump's upcoming indoor rally seems to be a recipe for a potential disaster.

Edited June 20, 2020 by Unicorn

[Guest]

... They followed the guidance voluntarily...

While I don't condone Sweden's approach, your statement is factually incorrect (unless what you meant by guidance was to go to school, bars, etc.). Primary schools, hair salons, restaurants, etc. remained opened.

"Primary schools are open, as are bars and restaurants, with images showing people enjoying drinks and crowding streets."

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200501/sweden-sticks-with-controversial-covid19-approach

You may want to get your facts straight before blurting out responses. It might make you look less foolish/ignorant. Have you noticed that you don't seem to like to provide sources for your statements? Even when challenged?

Edited June 20, 2020 by Unicorn

[+ WilliamM]

Sweden didn't do "nothing". That's the propaganda lockdown alarmists in the "news" media want people to believe. They want people to think that everyone is dying over there, that old & sick people are being dragged out of their homes & into the streets to get infected.

 

The reality is Sweden took a reasonable/responsible approach to deal with SARS-CoV-2 that worked well enough for them, better than our fear-based approach worked here, that's for sure!

 

Alarmists were initially predicting Sweden to suffer 75K-100K deaths without embracing draconian lockdown measures... I just checked, & their Covid death number is 5,053 or 0.05% of their population. The U.S. Covid death rate is already up to 0.037%, & that's WITH creepy authoritarian lockdown orders that resulted in millions of people becoming unemployed + a crippled economy rivaling the Great Depression. Sweden's economy actually grew slightly in the first 2020 Q, their people weren't forced to lose their jobs, their kids didn't have to miss school, + none of their citizen rights/freedoms were violated by their government, like we had ours violated here.

 

Where Sweden failed was in not doing enough to protect old people in nursing homes, about half their Covid deaths came from those places. That's something the U.S. & other countries around the world also failed to do tho.

 

I know Stockholm fairly well from visits around 2010s.. Back then most residents were Scandinavian, so a bit difficult from the the mix of residents of the United States.

 

And I recall a bit more satisfied with the government, if not the Nobel Prize award by Oslo.

[former lurker]

Pretty close to nothing. My understanding is that all they did was ban indoor events with over 500 people. Correct me if I'm wrong. Sweden gambled the lives of their elderly, given the dearth of knowledge we had on Covid-19 transmission at that time (mid-March). As it turned out, they appear to have had a relatively mild strain of the virus, and their death rate, while much higher than their neighbors', was not catastrophic. Had the seniors been more adequately protected, the rates would almost certainly have been substantially lower. Yet even in Sweden, as I understand it, their healthcare system wasn't overwhelmed. Despite the laissez-faire approach, their death rate was lower than Italy's, Spain's, or Belgium's. This seems to point to the importance of particular virus strains/virulence in determining outcomes.

I will say that Trump's upcoming indoor rally seems to be a recipe for a potential disaster.

 

Sweden used it's universal health care system, made testing available wide scale, issued guidance on the use of masks and social distancing (which you're dismissing because they weren't ordered, but they were observed). Sweden also banned gatherings of more than 50 people, advised seniors to stay home, and recommended that Swedes avoid all non-essential travel. In late March, after the virus had begun to appear in nursing homes, Sweden banned visitors to nursing homes, but the virus still spread in those facilities. The person who designed the response now believes Sweden did too little to combat Covid and contain it. While he thinks the scale of lockdowns we've experienced are too far reaching for Sweden, he now favors an approach between their lassez-faire approach and ours.

 

We also need to consider the fabric of health care in Sweden as compared to the U.S.

 

Finally, the centerpiece of the Swedish strategy was to promote "herd immunity". That appears not to have borne out.

[RealAvalon]

Sweden didn't do "nothing". That's the propaganda lockdown alarmists in the "news" media want people to believe. They want people to think that everyone is dying over there, that old & sick people are being dragged out of their homes & into the streets to get infected.

 

The reality is Sweden took a reasonable/responsible approach to deal with SARS-CoV-2 that worked well enough for them, better than our fear-based approach worked here, that's for sure!

 

Alarmists were initially predicting Sweden to suffer 75K-100K deaths without embracing draconian lockdown measures... I just checked, & their Covid death number is 5,053 or 0.05% of their population. The U.S. Covid death rate is already up to 0.037%, & that's WITH creepy authoritarian lockdown orders that resulted in millions of people becoming unemployed + a crippled economy rivaling the Great Depression. Sweden's economy actually grew slightly in the first 2020 Q, their people weren't forced to lose their jobs, their kids didn't have to miss school, + none of their citizen rights/freedoms were violated by their government, like we had ours violated here.

 

Where Sweden failed was in not doing enough to protect old people in nursing homes, about half their Covid deaths came from those places. That's something the U.S. & other countries around the world also failed to do tho.

The "Swedish Model" is universal free quality healthcare available through publicly run health insurance. That's the "Swedish Model."

 

If all you are interested in talking about is "herd immunity" talk about Brazil.

[former lurker]

While I don't condone Sweden's approach, your statement is factually incorrect (unless what you meant by guidance was to go to school, bars, etc.). Primary schools, hair salons, restaurants, etc. remained opened.

"Primary schools are open, as are bars and restaurants, with images showing people enjoying drinks and crowding streets."

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200501/sweden-sticks-with-controversial-covid19-approach

You may want to get your facts straight before blurting out responses. It might make you look less foolish/ignorant. Have you noticed that you don't seem to like to provide sources for your statements? Even when challenged?

 

You're not considering the other guidance -- using masks, not gathering in places with 50+, avoiding non-essential travel, seniors staying home, etc. No, Sweden didn't close bars, restaurants, etc. Do you have data that shows how populated those establishments were without the shutdowns by government?

 

Here's the article I was quoting from/paraphrasing in my last post. You would have seen it by googling "Sweden Covid". I guess we are guilty of the opposite sins -- you post a chart that shows nothing of consequence and make broad claims about what it reflects. I provide facts and detail, but fail to post the source. I'll remedy my failing: https://www.livescience.com/results-of-sweden-covid19-response.html. Will you remedy yours? Or will you continue to offer up pretty graphs that are the equivalent of muzak.

[RealAvalon]

Pretty close to nothing. My understanding is that all they did was ban indoor events with over 500 people. Correct me if I'm wrong. Sweden gambled the lives of their elderly, given the dearth of knowledge we had on Covid-19 transmission at that time (mid-March). As it turned out, they appear to have had a relatively mild strain of the virus, and their death rate, while much higher than their neighbors', was not catastrophic. Had the seniors been more adequately protected, the rates would almost certainly have been substantially lower. Yet even in Sweden, as I understand it, their healthcare system wasn't overwhelmed. Despite the laissez-faire approach, their death rate was lower than Italy's, Spain's, or Belgium's. This seems to point to the importance of particular virus strains/virulence in determining outcomes.

I will say that Trump's upcoming indoor rally seems to be a recipe for a potential disaster.

That's basically a complete misunderstanding of what happened in Sweden. You've put the cart before the horse, in describing what Sweden chose to do. And I'll reiterate that point, chose to do. They thought about it at a national level, considered all of the resources they had, and made a number of choices about how to use those resources. They didn't start with "herd immunity." That was an after thought. First they decided to focus their national resources on the most vulnerable population, seniors ... which blew up in their faces later when the 'herd' started to show up at the hospitals and overwhelmed them. .

 

"Herd immunity" was a symptom of that focus of resources. This is all we have left, so we'll have to rely on voluntary compliance by the population at large. As much as anything the choice of "herd immunity" in Sweden was a vote of confidence by health officials and politicians in the general Swedish population's ability to think beyond individuality, and accept responsibility for other peoples' health and the public good.

Edited June 21, 2020 by RealAvalon

[former lurker]

That's basically a complete misunderstanding of what happened in Sweden. You've put the cart before the horse, in describing what Sweden chose to do. And I'll reiterate that point, chose to do. They thought about it at a national level, considered all of the resources they had, and made a number of choices about how to use those resources. They didn't start with "herd immunity." That was an after thought. First they decided to focus their national resources on the most vulnerable population, seniors.

 

"Herd immunity" was a symptom of that focus of resources. This is all we have left, so we'll have to rely on voluntary compliance by the population at large. As much as anything the choice of "herd immunity" in Sweden was a vote of confidence by health officials and politicians in the general Swedish population ability to think beyond individuality and take responsibility for other peoples' health and the public good.

 

And it appears, based on their limited testing, that the "herd immunity" did not develop. Yet it's being assumed by people pointing to Sweden as an exemplar, and then used as a basis to argue other countries (the U.S. in particular) should have allowed mass indoor gatherings to promote herd immunity. Oops.

[RealAvalon]

And it appears, based on their limited testing, that the "herd immunity" did not develop. Yet it's being assumed by people pointing to Sweden as an exemplar, and then used as a basis to argue other countries (the U.S. in particular) should have allowed mass indoor gatherings to promote herd immunity. Oops.

Why does "context" seem to be such a profoundly difficult thing to understand?

[Guest]

You're not considering the other guidance -- using masks, not gathering in places with 50+, avoiding non-essential travel, seniors staying home, etc. No, Sweden didn't close bars, restaurants, etc....

Well, the Swedes have not been using masks that much, if the photos I've seen on the news have been accurate. It sounds like you're admitting you were wrong, and that you now think it's OK to keep bars and restaurants open, etc., as long as one avoids gathering in places with over 50 people, avoiding non-essential travel, and seniors staying at home. Because a while ago, you were pointing to Arizona, Florida, and Texas, and screaming that the sky is falling.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1273211/sweden-coronavirus-covid-19-infection-rate-self-isolation-social-distancing

[former lurker]

Well, the Swedes have not been using masks that much, if the photos I've seen on the news have been accurate. It sounds like you're admitting you were wrong, and that you now think it's OK to keep bars and restaurants open, etc., as long as one avoids gathering in places with over 50 people, avoiding non-essential travel, and seniors staying at home. Because a while ago, you were pointing to Arizona, Florida, and Texas, and screaming that the sky is falling.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1273211/sweden-coronavirus-covid-19-infection-rate-self-isolation-social-distancing

 

Your reading comp skills are lacking. I'm not admitting to being wrong. I'm pointing out that your broad-brush invocation of the Swedish model is unavailing as a critique of the U.S.'s approach. I like how you reach back into April to compare Britain and Sweden. Of course, Britain is a major stop over for international flights and had a much bigger influx of carriers from outside the UK, then passed it along to other countries including the U.S. Apples and oranges.

 

I suppose you consider a picture or two to constitute "hard data" as you've said you're not persuaded by anecdotal accounts. How does the picture you posted differ from an anecdote? I guess if it's a picture or a graph it carries more weight in your eyes. Or are you still cherry picking facts to fit your assertion that the lockdowns in the US have been counterproductive. (And weren't you arguing that Sweden proved the efficacy of herd immunity? It seems the Swedish experts disagree based on their testing data -- that's in the article I posted earlier.)

[RealAvalon]

Well, the Swedes have not been using masks that much, if the photos I've seen on the news have been accurate. It sounds like you're admitting you were wrong, and that you now think it's OK to keep bars and restaurants open, etc., as long as one avoids gathering in places with over 50 people, avoiding non-essential travel, and seniors staying at home. Because a while ago, you were pointing to Arizona, Florida, and Texas, and screaming that the sky is falling.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1273211/sweden-coronavirus-covid-19-infection-rate-self-isolation-social-distancing

Give it up. You are coming across as the lawyer that has lost the merits of the case and is now reduced to technicalities.

[+ PapaTony]

[MEDIA=twitter]1274527120207814658[/MEDIA]

[+ bigjoey]

It is now becoming clear what happened in Sweden and it is not good. For the expected crush in the hospitals, they issued protocols that limited access for the elderly. In a form of triage to ration care, for the elderly, senior homes were told not to send seniors to hospitals; seniors were given palliative care but not oxygen or intravenous therapy of fluids and nutrition.

 

The government is being accused of the unnecessary deaths of thousands of seniors who were too quickly placed on just palliative care and given morphine and sedatives rather than being sent to a hospital.

 

Anders Tegnell still stands by his original strategy except for “elderly care.” It is becoming clear that if Sweden had different set of elderly protocols, the national death rate would have been much lower.

 

Bottom line: just like the NY government created a disaster with their mandate that put infected people into nursing homes, the Swedish government created a disaster by keeping infected seniors away from acute care that could have saved lives.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52704836

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-is-taking-a-high-toll-on-swedens-elderly-families-blame-the-government-11592479430

 

[Populist Fury]

They followed the guidance voluntarily. They don't harbor the same paranoid view of their government that you do.

 

 

It's called distrust, well-earned distrust based on past actions... actions that I won't list here in order to keep the thread from getting sent to politics.

 

Paranoid view of their government (as you call it) is people believing without proof that our democratically-elected president is being controlled by a foreign government ?

[SirBillybob]

Arizona is startling in its recent new case trend normalized by population. It is two to three times greater than states placed 2nd to 9th. At one point, my province Quebec, similar population, was trending at levels now evident in the 8 states placing behind it, but Arizona now has 30 times the Quebec rate and is matching Louisiana’s skyrocketing in the early days. If Arizona were a nation it would currently be 2nd only to Chile.

Edited June 22, 2020 by SirBIllybob

[RealAvalon]

Reducing the infection and replication rate of the virus is possible. And essential. A government either wants to reduce the death rate, or they either don't care or are incompetent. The virus is, what the virus is. It was the same yesterday, today and tomorrow. The virus is not changing. It will continue to seek out weaknesses to multiple and expand.

 

In the USA the "leadership" exhibited by Trump has been an incoherent failure, with the added uselessness of trying to blame any and everyone else.

Admin Note: Warning: No politics in the Lounge.

 

 

https://www.msnbc.com/all-in/watch/europe-suppressed-the-coronavirus-the-u-s-has-not-85485125688

Edited June 22, 2020 by Cooper

[+ Charlie]

Grigor Dimitrov, one of the tennis stars who played last weekend in the Adria Tournament in Belgrade that I commented on in post #257, has tested positive for CoVid-19. The tournament, which continued this weekend in Zadar, Croatia, was cancelled when the announcement was made by Dimitrov today before the final match. I remember watching Dimitrov and his opponents embracing at the net last weekend. It will be interesting to see if they or any others on the court test positive.

Edited June 22, 2020 by Charlie

[former lurker]

Arizona is startling in its recent new case trend normalized by population. It is two to three times greater than states placed 2nd to 9th. At one point, my province Quebec, similar population, was trending at levels now evident in the 8 states placing behind it, but Arizona now has 30 times the Quebec rate and is matching Louisiana’s skyrocketing in the early days. If Arizona were a nation it would currently be 2nd only to Chile.

 

This is alarming. And instructive. It sort of puts to rest the idea that warm weather will kill of the virus.

[former lurker]

Grigor Dimintrov, one of the tennis stars who played last weekend in the Adria Tournament in Belgrade that I I commented on in post #257, has tested positive for CoVid-19. The tournament, which continued this weekend in Zadar, Croatia, was cancelled when the announcement was made by Dimitrov today before the final match. I remember watching Dimitrov and his opponents embracing at the net last weekend. It will be interesting to see if they or any others on the court test positive.

 

The news is scant and preliminary, but MLB is now having some form of spring training, and at least 11 players in Florida and Arizona have tested positive.

[RealAvalon]

This is alarming. And instructive. It sort of puts to rest the idea that warm weather will kill of the virus.

Warm weather will kill the virus? More magical GOP thinking.

 

Alabama: 31,624 cases

British Columbia: 2,835 cases

 

Same population.

Edited June 24, 2020 by RealAvalon

[former lurker]

Warm weather will kill the virus?

 

Alabama: 30,021 cases

British Columbia: 2,790 cases

 

Same population.

 

I never bought that claim, either. It was a Trump assertion that summer weather would cause the virus to "go away".

[RealAvalon]

I never bought that claim, either. It was a Trump assertion that summer weather would cause the virus to "go away".

Damn. If only the GOP Magical Thinking would work. I'd win the lottery. And you'd be on the Supreme Court.