More interesting data regarding Covid

[+ bigjoey]

You are describing something the way a relatively newcomer would see a nursing home or assisted living facility.

 

How about after living there a few years, and dealing with added health problems, or beloved children trying to visit often but alas dealing with rebellious tennagers and long hours at work.

 

One needs to visit these wonderful places frequently and sometimes at unexpected hours - not just at lunch or dinner or breakfast. Is there enough heat on cold mornings in the Winter? Get to know the staff and the supervisors. Know the relatives of the other people who live there: check in occasionally at the local senior center. Visit frequently at hospitals when seniors are there. Be concerned about feeding tubes and ventilators.

The place I described where I was a volunteer was home to my parents for six years. I was there all the time at all hours. I have had other friends and family there as well over the years including a relative there this moment telling me about the lockdown from the inside. Hardly a newcomer to the field of senior care; I know so much because I was involved with the design of the current facility.

 

As for a person searching for a new home, yes, a thorough search is best but often time is limited and a place needs to be found in a few days.

[+ WilliamM]

The place I described where I was a volunteer was home to my parents for six years. I was there all the time at all hours. I have had other friends and family there as well over the years including a relative there this moment telling me about the lockdown from the inside. Hardly a newcomer to the field of senior care; I know so much because I was involved with the design of the current facility.

 

As for a person searching for a new home, yes, a thorough search is best but often time is limited and a place needs to be found in a few days.

 

Yes, my mother was placed in a nursing home in Massachusetts by the local hospital. I waited a few days before calling her. Sorry to hear she was placed in a room with two patients with Alzheimer's.

 

Without my knowledge my aunt and first cousin visited that day. My cousin called to tell me the place was totally inadequate. I flew to Boston a few days later (New Year's Eve) and took her out the next morning. Surprised a little she sort of expected me but not so early in the morning.

[Guest]

Latest graphs, once again, show that none of the states re-opening have "spiked." Some up a bit, some down a bit.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/states-reopen-map-coronavirus.html

[xyz48B]

Read an article this morning about research that said humidity has a measurable effect on virus transmissibility. The research could have bearing on preparing for cooler drier air in the winter. The indoor heated, recycled dry air in our homes and other places in the winter is a perfect environment apparently for the virus. Humidity (don’t ask me the science) apparently doesn’t agree with the virus.

 

Where can I sign up to be aquatic?!?

[RealAvalon]

I think we should have a treasure hunt here in the Forum and I’ll provide a prize to the winner. The Forum member who can locate the shortest posting by Steven Kessler will receive a gourmet dinner herein Dallas. Transportation not included.

COVID - currently on vacation in dallas

[mike carey]

COVID - currently on vacation in dallas

Can do if @Benjamin_Nicholas is there! Leaving aside the fact that I can't leave the country.

[RealAvalon]

Can do if @Benjamin_Nicholas is there! Leaving aside the fact that I can't leave the country.

@Benjamin_Nicholas may have you doing some Sweatin to the Oldies first, so be prepared with very colourful head and wrist bands.

[mike carey]

@Benjamin_Nicholas may have you doing some Sweatin to the Oldies first, so be prepared with very colourful head and wrist bands.

Well, I am an oldie!

[BgMstr4u]

So....

Back to numbers. What is it about Belgium? So much time has passed and Belgium is still at the top of the deaths/1 million population index, by a huge amount: at this point (1:05 pm PDT on 3 June 2020) 833.6/mllion, with the UK, Spain and Italy in descending order clumped in the 500s.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/coronavirus/

Belgium has been at the top for so long, and by so much,

Anyone have thoughts as to why?

[RealAvalon]

So....

Back to numbers. What is it about Belgium? So much time has passed and Belgium is still at the top of the deaths/1 million population index, by a huge amount: at this point (1:05 pm PDT on 3 June 2020) 833.6/mllion, with the UK, Spain and Italy in descending order clumped in the 500s.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/coronavirus/

Belgium has been at the top for so long, and by so much,

Anyone have thoughts as to why?

I wonder if its the federalist nature of their government, and perhaps a more difficult time coordinating things nationally. I say that because Canada's numbers have been suffering because of that. 90+% of Canadian cases are in Quebec, Ontario and Alberta. And those are the provinces which the federal government has the most difficulties with.

[SirBillybob]

So....

Back to numbers. What is it about Belgium? So much time has passed and Belgium is still at the top of the deaths/1 million population index, by a huge amount: at this point (1:05 pm PDT on 3 June 2020) 833.6/mllion, with the UK, Spain and Italy in descending order clumped in the 500s.

——

 

San Marino far exceeds Belgium in per capita cases and deaths to date. (Sorry, I must have clicked quote and reply in the wrong order.)

[SirBillybob]

What is striking is the disparity among countries in the ratio of ‘recovered’:’mortality’ outcomes. Belgium reports one death for every two recoveries. Health officials there, when criticized for scaring future tourists away, etc, counter that they are being radically transparent and are including “presumptives” ... that underreporting is widespread elsewhere.

 

Again, perhaps a lack of standardization in tallying leads to the apparent contradiction of San Marino reporting a much lower death rate by infection but much higher death rate by population compared to Belgium.

 

But here is where the numbers get really tricky: in spite of Belgium reporting 37% of outcomes to date as death, only 1% of the current thousands of cases are deemed to be serious or critical.

 

Population is the greatest constant; followed by mortality (however skewed by erroneous estimates, upwards by presumptives and downwards by undiagnosed/home-based); and lastly case count, skewed by reported versus actual, also determined in part by cross/sectional general asymptomatic-inclusive test sampling (limited by short antigen detection duration) and by the more accurate antibody testing for truer epidemiological rates. Of course, other variables such as age and long-term care outbreaks impact on how to interpret the figures as far as general population risk. Broad-based antibody testing, including post-mortem where necessary is the only way to reconcile case count and mortality. Otherwise, I respect the disease but suspect the tallies.

Edited June 3, 2020 by SirBIllybob

[Guest]

 

Belgium has been at the top for so long, and by so much,

Anyone have thoughts as to why?

One can only theorize at this point, of course. Belgium is a rather cool and rainy place. Rains 300 days a year. Little UV to be had. Cool and dreary Ireland and UK also have relatively high cases per population. It's interesting to see how many countries have many more deaths from influenza than from Covid. I guess people in those countries either don't like or have the availability of immunizations.

[RealAvalon]

What is striking is the disparity among countries in the ratio of ‘recovered’:’mortality’ outcomes. Belgium reports one death for every two recoveries. Health officials there, when criticized for scaring future tourists away, etc, counter that they are being radically transparent and are including “presumptives” ... that underreporting is widespread elsewhere.

 

Again, perhaps a lack of standardization in tallying leads to the apparent contradiction of San Marino reporting a much lower death rate by infection but much higher death rate by population compared to Belgium.

 

But here is where the numbers get really tricky: in spite of Belgium reporting 37% of outcomes to date as death, only 1% of the current thousands of cases are deemed to be serious or critical.

 

Population is the greatest constant; followed by mortality (however skewed by erroneous estimates, upwards by presumptives and downwards by undiagnosed/home-based); and lastly case count, skewed by reported versus actual, also determined in part by cross/sectional general asymptomatic-inclusive test sampling (limited by short antigen detection duration) and by the more accurate antibody testing for truer epidemiological rates. Of course, other variables such as age and long-term care outbreaks impact on how to interpret the figures as far as general population risk. Broad-based antibody testing, including post-mortem where necessary is the only way to reconcile case count and mortality. Otherwise, I respect the disease but suspect the tallies.

In British Columbia, population 5.1 million, the mortality rate for COVID in ICU has been 15%. Which is the same rate for anyone with anything going into ICU in British Columbia.

[BgMstr4u]

Sharp eyes, @SirBIllybob. It is true. No denying it. San Marino has, according to the list, 1,243.2/million. The Channel Islands have a whopping 12,422.4. Diamond Princess has 3,679.6.

 

Of course, San Marino has a population of approximately 33,925 people. The Channel Islands, 173,863. Diamond Princess? Hard to find it among political jurisdictions, even the smallest. According to its own figures, it can hold 3,770 passengers and crew. It had just 13 Covid-19 deaths. Of course, there are hardly a million people on the DP, or in the three other lilliputian jurisdictions. Statistics are interesting things when they move out of the realm of the larger sums. They would seem to give way to the vagaries of small events in small groups of people.

https://www.princess.com/ships-and-experience/ships/di-diamond-princess/

 

A couple of mainland shopping trips and a raucus pub night or two in Jersey. A wayward tourist van or two stopping for stamps to collect or perhaps duty free goods in San Marino. I see Andorra (77,256) isn't listed. All that liquor, all those tax-free tires. A couple of good spewing coughs and you're off to the races. Perhaps something happens to ratios when their numerical elements dwindle down toward the negligible end of things.

 

But Belgium is a small but still substantial country. Language wars forever. Rainy climate for sure. Maybe all those faceless international EU bureaucrats scurrying to and fro? Who knows how many trips are made hither and yon, measuring every conceivable thing to be standardized and regulated. God knows how many viral particles are picked up measuring fishing lines or milk bottles or aspirin pills in every little corner of every formerly sovereign country within their extensive purview.

Edited June 3, 2020 by BgMstr4u

[SirBillybob]

Actually, a denominator of 850 cases in Andorra and 675 cases in San Marino is not a terrible basis for outcome and population calculations in those small landlocked nations. They would offer poorer cross-national comparisons in chi-squared analyses but for the relatively high mortality rate of Covid-19. Granted, each is embedded or in close proximity to a hot zone. I wonder, too, if a smaller (developed) nation is advantaged by more accurate organizational capacity in compiling data. I believe, however, that Iceland is the winner among all nations on that count.

 

Seeing as cruise ships, etc, are up for grabs, I’ll be a princess and toss in my city of a few million, Montreal ... if it were an independent small yet densely populated nation, places third behind San Marino and Belgium in per capita pandemic mortality. The weather has been great; I have not used my umbrella in almost 3 months.

Edited June 3, 2020 by SirBIllybob

[BgMstr4u]

I don't dispute it, just point out that they are very small samples.

[SirBillybob]

Ah, lol, I was going to say the Belgium inquiry was about mortality rates, but that was your inquiry. I think it got a little off track and ‘sprouted’ suppositions about transmission rates and associated factors. I find it harder to flex muscles about Brussels or elsewhere the broader the terms/variables.

[+ BenjaminNicholas]

@Benjamin_Nicholas may have you doing some Sweatin to the Oldies first, so be prepared with very colourful head and wrist bands.

 

Not only do I have the short '80s OP shorts, ringer socks and reebok sneakers ready, I might even have a neon sweatband around here somewhere.

 

[MEDIA=giphy]C89HzzZPj88aA[/MEDIA]

[+ BenjaminNicholas]

Can do if @Benjamin_Nicholas is there! Leaving aside the fact that I can't leave the country.

 

 

You have problems... I have solutions.

 

[big-n-tall]

Not only do I have the short '80s OP shorts, ringer socks and reebok sneakers ready, I might even have a neon sweatband around here somewhere.

 

[MEDIA=giphy]C89HzzZPj88aA[/MEDIA]

 

...pictures or it didn't happen.

[+ BenjaminNicholas]

...pictures or it didn't happen.

 

 

I think I can help you out with that...

 

image hosting

[big-n-tall]

I think I can help you out with that...

 

image hosting

 

Very nice. If you walked into my room dressed like that, I’d probably tackle you the ground and ravage you.

[RealAvalon]

I think I can help you out with that...

 

image hosting

"drop trou" has taken on a whole new significance

 

And sorry, totally off topic. It's the pandemic speaking.

Edited June 4, 2020 by RealAvalon

[+ bigjoey]

For those trying to figure out the Covid19 death rate, the newest from the CDC with a LOWER figure range and number:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/06/05/fact-check-cdc-estimates-covid-19-death-rate-0-26/5269331002/