SirBillybob

In the live feed was it possible to discern mask-wearing trends among customers? I’ll possibly drop in Tuesday (eve of a holiday here), or next weekend after a week has passed for establishments to have settled in to their adjusted protocol.

All things being equal in terms of community infection prevalence, the masseur bears the far greater risk. You have to interact with 25 masseurs to match the risk the masseur incurs massaging 25 clients. Risk figures for masseurs (and cascading to clients) vary considerably geographically and according to assumptions about the estimated ratio of true : official prevalence. Let’s say actual prevalence is 10X reported tallies; assume a window of 15 days contagion among recent pop-adjusted rolling new case averages, the bulk asymptomatic/pre-symptomatic; and compare the higher incidence rate Arizona with lower rate Vermont. Probability of at least one SARS-CoV-2 positive client in a grouping of 25 within a massage practice in Arizona is 13.6% for reported cases and 77.8% for assumed ‘under the radar’. In Vermont, those calculations are, respectively, 0.5% and 4.9%.

Quebec just reversed plan to dial back daily reporting to weekly.

The gay bathhouses are opening this weekend, presumably no restriction on cabin use.

Today’s probability of at least one potentially contagious person in a gathering of 50 is .8%; gathering of 100 is 1.7%, based on absolute reported rolling average province case tally. Based on estimated true community infection prevalence (arbitrary multiple 10-fold), is 8.2% among 50 people and 15.6% among 100 people.

Since respirological aerosols represent the greatest transmission vector, one’s face at crotch level, with verbal interaction minimal to none, seems to be theoretically no greater risk than social chatting in a bar’s common area. People traffic movement yields greater exposure than isolated one-to-one.

The province’s public health spokesperson actually indicated “strip clubs too” according to the Montreal Gazette. Understandably, lap dances were not specifically mentioned ... that would contradict the intent of protective measures. The guidelines appear to be: no dance-floor dancing; stick to seating with minimal milling/circulating; seating together in a group is restricted to members of the same household (ie, family members or other co-occupants of the same home); otherwise, 2-metre physical distancing but wearing a mask if that cannot be accommodated; ample hand sanitation, etc. The above simply represents pointers I have lifted from my reading. I could not find an official document on measures. Obviously, there will be some ambiguity. Waiting to eliminate grey areas would have taken forever. Quebec has also elected to report pandemic figures every Thursday as opposed to daily. Composite federal tallies will therefore be more accurate each Thursday/Friday. I went to one of the major grocery chain stores downtown Montreal. Very few people wore a mask compared to earlier in the pandemic, the control of customer density seemed to be relaxed, and many ‘pinch points’ in the aisles made distancing impossible.

Must be why urophilia is ‘sipstinkling’.

I think I am a poor trial candidate because my current “behave as usual” set point is extremely low risk of exposure. I realize that does not disqualify me because a gradient of exposure risk among subjects is acceptable, but I am willing to trade off a lot of non-normalcy duration for the possibility of increased qualitative aspects of vaccination that may occur over time. The study in Canada is a China-Canada collaboration, Canada lagging behind in the Phase progression and, I add hopefully, isolated from the politics of a current reciprocal detention standoff. Preliminary results of human application in China suggest side effects (beyond site infection) that will indirectly unblind many subjects‘ awareness of group allocation.

Gotcha. [survival immunity plus minimum direct vaccine-conferred herd volume immunity] plus non/fail-vaxx’d indirect protection via reduced transmission vector all potentially lowers or eradicates infection.

With less than one percent in Canada’s most affected province to date, I expect artificial immunity is the likelier scenario. Natural immunity would take about 100 reiterations similar to initial wave magnitude. The temporal order is: artificial, I croak unrelated, herd immunity.

So I fact-checked and, indeed, the source on age exclusion (a bioethicist) was incorrect, likely misinterpreting news that older folks (particularly well beyond 65) are formally excluded from some trials underway. Fortunately the clinical watchdogs are strongly advocating for broad age representation. In fact, Phase 2 of Canada’s one approved trial will include up to age 85.

I just read that older people will not be included in human vaccine trials but the age threshold is not clear. A viable vaccine is possibly less effective for the elderly and one priority will remain vaccinating formal caregivers, younger family members, etc. This seems to pose the conundrum that the effectiveness for seniors will be judged in real time based on peer contagion rather than in prospective research. Sheesh. It all suggests the aged in alternate level of care will need isolation, as a matter of policy, from their fellow inmates to enhance survival.

UPDATE: Thermas opened just 2 days past my recent post.

Yeah, I just coincidentally saw on the Pases Instagram feed Thermas is open. Even when travel clearance to Spain, though, will not likely fly there, or Zürich, due to contagion risk and trip medical insurance disqualification. Thousands of unspent dollars to be rolled over into my fattening travel purse.

In Canada, 37,000 currently available blood donation samples as well as samples from 10,000 home-administered kits randomly distributed to Canadians registered in a large polling database will be analyzed for antibodies this summer, all part of a 2-year one million person target. As this should control for the risk-prompted or symptom-based elective testing to date, I am glad that we should be getting some better true incidence numbers sooner than I thought. With an established confidence range the true prevalence, reproduction, and fatality proportion can then be much more accurately estimated whatever the new case trend going forward. It will be interesting to see how upcoming ramping up of antibody testing will be incorporated into nation-comparative epidemiological graphs. Obviously not all 200ish will be on the same playing field for funding or timeline. Much of the global data on incidence and outcomes will become meaningless. Canadians’ individual positive results will not be revealed to them.

Would you sign up for a vaccine efficacy study? Let’s assume it was approved based on an acceptable risk of adverse events found in earlier phasing ... that is a given anyway. Let’s also assume it met the necessary ‘warp speed’ required to get to the population-testing stage of development, thereby with reduced knowledge about temporal durability of protection. Finally, let’s assume it is 2:1 ratio in randomized double-blind format, two-thirds recipients vaccine and one-third placebo.

Perhaps you pop popcorn in a pot prior to porn, papi?

The current global ratio of death to recovery, based on closed cases (lately about half all cases), is unchanged from the average of 5-month duration of tracking so far. Granted, it has dropped steadily from April 9th but an earlier equal shift also occurred over a much shorter duration of 2 weeks for an obviously much smaller cumulative tally within a comparatively narrow geographical field. The interacting variables implicated in those two iterations of steadily declining fatality surely differ or differ in relative influence where they have relevance in common. That the current trend resembles an earlier trend has me a little less likely to scratch my head. The timeline ratio curve looks a lot less dramatic than the trending histogram graph disconnect of daily case and daily death tracking. This global recovery/death graph is naturally smoothed relative to many individual nations that have regular unexplained anomalies in the progression of closed-case outcome. Additionally, many of the nations driving the increasing new case tally may be more likely to under-report related mortality in conjunction with a steady incline in infection rates (as I think others mentioned).

This is how I understand Vitamin D in general and in Covid-2 context, as it pertains to my own supplementation at my age and considering I take no medications imposing interaction that may influence bioavailability. Take standard supplementation to mitigate hypovitaminosis yet avoid hypervitaminosis and over-tolerance. The instant I think I might be getting sick, add a megadose that is considered safe over a short term. The rapid increased saturation might offset things such as the ‘cytokine storm’ we hear about. Adjust according to upcoming findings.

The D supp research results expected first should be quite soon, likely July, in France where the study commenced in mid-April when daily new case rates were still high and facilitated recruitment.

It appears that Germany’s 5-day trend shows it has lost gains accruing up to 4 weeks ago, with a current reproduction rate of 2.88 that portends a case rate exceeding that which occurred at the introduction of relaxed restrictions in early May based on a protracted period of case reduction. Portugal has been steadily increasing to twice its new case rate of a month ago.

One could cherry-pick weather and validate weather as a factor in the Americas outside of other contextual variables. Take Ontario/Quebec versus Chile, contenders for the two most seasonally polarized and temporally opposite by season. I isolate the 2 provinces as they hold the majority of Canadian cases, the pop-adjusted totals approach Chile’s the most, and the larger the pop proportion infected the more meaningful substantial changes in new case trend. The population differential is merely about 10% and north-south latitude differentials are not terrible discrepant. Pandemic commenced at respective Equinox for each. Canada curve starts to drop following peak about May 6th (Equinox-Solstice midpoint) and Chile curve precipitously rises at that point. Ont\Qc doing its best ever at Solstice and Chile skyrocketing at theirs, even controlling for their large retroactive data-dump mid-June. That spike anomaly simply reinforces the notion that Chile and the 2 Canadian provinces were more neck-and-neck than otherwise appears over the dates prior to greater weather polarization (not to be confused with Geo-polar). BUT HERE IS THE KICKER: If it relates to weather, Canada could surge at the midpoint next to August, in other words early November. If mirror-imaged against Chile’s trend, by our holiday season this translates to 8 times Ontario’s peak seen in May and 4 times Quebec’s at that time. All I want for Christmas is a hazmat suit. ——- Does Argentina corroborate the pattern? Yes, to a degree. Was low for a long time but steadily though less steeply increasing since the early May seasonal mid-point, and now criss-crossed above overall Canada new case rates.

Interestingly, 3 of the top 8 states surging out of all states&territories are in the top 4 for dry weather by full year. The flu (the SARS-CoV-2 comparator being most used) may like low humidity at any temperature and relatively but moderate higher temperature irrespective of humidity, all confounded by whether the weather regionally has a true polarized seasonality. (But I think it is a coincidence for this pandemic and population compliance with science is the overriding factor.) http://sitn.hms.harvard.edu/flash/2014/the-reason-for-the-season-why-flu-strikes-in-winter/

Arizona is startling in its recent new case trend normalized by population. It is two to three times greater than states placed 2nd to 9th. At one point, my province Quebec, similar population, was trending at levels now evident in the 8 states placing behind it, but Arizona now has 30 times the Quebec rate and is matching Louisiana’s skyrocketing in the early days. If Arizona were a nation it would currently be 2nd only to Chile.