SirBillybob

It’s a nod to Metallica’s 1st album and stencilled in the same style, as poetic to some as Tennyson. Not sure, though, it would go ever well meeting your parents, or would impress as a wedding date unless he was your +1 at their Montreal stadium concert last week (as ad suggests you could take him anywhere). A tattoo of “metal up your ass”, the originally conceived and dialled back album title, might have been too on the nose. Overall, best to stick to the T-shirts. There were mobs of them cramming the subway home, apparently many soccer Moms & Dads seeking nostalgia, sprinkled with adult young’uns, funny how heavy metal still takes.

A regular filed away a comment I made in passing that I liked to read books on shortlists in candidacy for various major annual fiction prizes. He researched and gifted me 5 such novels one Christmas, along with the receipt, in the event I had read any and wished to exchange. He outdid my own creativity in spite of my being obsessed with him at the time.

Hah … outrageous. Yeah, best not to look and risk tripping onto a Brandunning‘s dogmatique posts, unless you seek a particular side dish of grey matter with the chap you choose for sex. Seeing the content can be a mistake if a satisfactory erotic experience could have otherwise neutrally transpired. Often the crew guy entourage hold similar views. Many of them should stick to physique posing. Doesn’t necessarily mean not decent fellows worth spending certain types of time with, unless you pick up meta elements of contempt (wink nudge), eg viz orientation. Remember that the education major is moving weight around and valuable insertion in some areas from those viewed as sheeple is restricted. I had a longterm regular years ago that refused to consider the salutary benefits of influenza vaccination. Didn’t make or break the enjoyment, but the basis was natural vs artificial immunity, nothing conspiratorial. We also had arguments surrounding anecdotal reports of supplement benefits typically without gold standard RCT underpinnings. He actually, however, exerted a big influence facilitating my physical condition and health.

Well, Doxy PEP certainly holds promise but bacterial STI drug resistance is a genuine concern that requires further investigation and has put most of the clinical world outside San Fran Health on greater pause. In fact, the known higher level of already existing gonorrhea tetracycline class resistance in France compared to USA is put forward as a possible explanation for the difference in some of the research findings regarding Doxy PEP impact between the two settings. Another important factor is the overall high gonorrhea incidence in trials for both treatment and control arms, compared to syphilis and chlamydia. One might be impressed by risk reduction figures but not be comfortable with the actual incidence rate of gonorrhea that nevertheless occurs on PEP, in spite of a small average handful of different partners. There may be some good news regarding the potential for gonorrhea infection risk reduction conferred by Meningococcal B vaccine, as it has shown significant effects on its own in research tacking it on to Doxy PEP study, I believe not yet assessed in combination. Unfortunately, just one small trial recruiting in USA at this time: in Chapel Hill, but with a urethral gonorrhea exposure challenge (!; I doubt a fun one, and the cohort upper age limit is decades below our median) Therefore, global efforts may eventually involve a multi-pronged approach. That said, one major way to reduce incidence and prevalence remains via regular surveillance and diagnosis-centred treatment prn. If this were to be done assiduously the effects would be enormous.

Odds are ratios. Just ask your bookie or the bored mechanical rabbit at the dog track. Probability can be computed as an odds ratio and vice versa. 1.4% probability is odds p/(1-p): .014/.986, commonly depicted as .014:.986, but because odds are best depicted as x:1, more steps are required to find the multiplier, 71.43 in this case, to convert the ratio to 1:70.4 … It’s just faster to divide 100 by 1.4 to yield the chance 1/71.4 In some cases chance is a better descriptor than probability. As @Unicorn correctly states, PrEP infection probability is reduced to .014%, but that may be less relatable compared to 1.4%. Therefore 1/7,144 chance of infection may be employed. At that high a figure an odds of 7,143:1 of NOT infection does not add much info. [I had mistyped 1/9,091 as opposed to 1/7,144 in an earlier post, edit window having expired] Of course, chance is just an informal synonym for probability but I prefer not to use them interchangeably because probability has a defined range 0-100% or 0.0-1.0

Well, no. It is true that the single event probability is static and that probability is not influenced by successive exclusion, as in, say, lotteries where each ball number can only be drawn once. A clinician would certainly not present the ‘reset’ idea to a HIV serodiscordant couple. The probability does carry over in this context. 1% the first time, 1.99% combining 2 times, 2.97% combining 3 times, and as I wrote, 63.4% by the 100th time. Well, not literally 63.4% THE 100th time, but the aggregate of 100 events produces a risk of at least 63.4% overall. Additionally, the higher the number of risk events the greater the chance of an unspecified number of additional infection events occurring, beyond 1, although only one infection event is basically relevant for probability purposes. Clinical factors related to multiple transmissions may pose additional implications. One can reverse engineer the formula to calculate the number of risk events that produces an arbitrary probability, say 10%. The formula contains an exponential component, so 20 times in total does not exactly double the risk of 10 times in total, and so on. In research we call this a nonlinear function. One must account for successively avoiding the 1% single event undesired outcome. (Well, not successive in succession because the infection may occur prior to one of the events in the aggregate that did not transmit infection) That is why during COVID peaks where infection transmissibility status was unknown the recommendation given for, say, 6 as opposed to 10 guests at a holiday dinner, or 6 as opposed to 10 1:1 lunches to carry less overall risk.

“But but but, your honour, I was only passively involved!”

Or your criminal behaviour is spread out and saturates your zone less.

Hahahah. Heartbreak, ecstasy, or schadenfreude. MVP runner-up Stockholm penalty syndrome, given 2016 Olympic quarterfinals.

In The Village I often just give in and hand over cash to those that seek it, usually in 4-minute iterations as if Groundhog Day were going out of style. In doing so, I break the law, outside of purchasing Perrier and pizza. In fact, I commit far more criminal offences compared to anybody in The Village seeking cash implicitly or explicitly. I don’t really notice the panhandling apocalypse others describe. I would just consider it the price of admission to being illicit in the area where we mutually congregate. 😏

Spoiler Alert, if you play the clip (8 seconds), though I removed uniform colour. —- Oh my, heartbreak by millimetres. FullSizeRender.MOV

Software easy to grasp and install for a certain operational use or task.

These estimates can be calculated using the “probability of at least one” algorithm. For 1/100 chance per event, 100 events produces a 63.4% likelihood of minimally one occurrence. For the actual HIV risk estimate of 1/72 per event, 72 events produces a 63.8% likelihood of minimally one infection transmission; 100 events produces a 75.6% likelihood of infection transmission. Again, these figures relate to unprotected receptive anal intercourse with one or more ‘topping’ poz partners with detectable viral load. In Canada about one-quarter of people living with HIV have detectable viral load.

A few questions. I thought that if you subscribed to Mr Number the app would log phone numbers that come in and you can only select a number from that menu and report it with or without narrative commentary. For example, the app was mainly designed for spam / robocall, etc annoyances. As such, you may need to keep a separate list of your own because you may get so many different callers you need a way to stratify problematic callers by number so as to avoid error. Can you delete from the logged list so as to avoid an accumulation of numbers not relevant for your purposes? I thought that a contributor in this thread claimed that any known phone number could be reported by the reporter possessing the app simply by entering the number manually. I did not think that was possible because I assume you must click and drag/insert within the app. Otherwise, misanthropic pranks abound. Similarly, if a problematic client only communicates through, say, Rentmen text messaging, or email for that matter, you would have no way of reporting on Mr Number. Right? You may never have access to the phone number or, again, in such a way that would need to be entered yourself manually (assumed impossible). I assume SMS text lands a number into the Mr Number app list? Yes? Few people make conventional phone calls, in contrast to robocall patterns, etc. What about WhatsApp (or Line) web-based calls, texts, voice messages? You only get an unidentified alert to check WhatsApp. (I don’t recall if the ID pops up if it is a WhatsApp phone call.) Would any of these modes show up in your Mr Number log so as to permit the option of a report?

Endowed size outliers are more likely to attract willing bottoms outside of transactional contexts, that or their Grindr is probably dysfunctional. So probably no significant CSW ad-vantage. Clients tend not to coordinate tag-teaming, so again no real ad-vantage. I wouldn’t worry about the apparent disconnect between orientation label and behaviour. As many men that have sex with both men women yet don’t identify as gay actually identify as heterosexual as bisexual. You might prefer clients that endorse this fluidity anyway. What strikes me as most interesting is your implied success at attracting non-paying male tops. What characteristics and skills do you possess that might be employable in recruiting clients, particularly those that are willing to pay in order to avoid the hassles of non-transactional hook-ups? Unless, of course, your ass is routinely presented for example in a bathhouse cabin; that would not easily cross-over into the ad-based CSW role.

Extremely low, 1/9,091 on PrEP and 1/35,714 based on condom use added to PrEP if condom effectiveness is 80%. Your estimate is based on inadvertent infection with one episode of unprotected sex. It is 1/72 probability for receptive and much lower for insertive. In contrast, vaccine efficacy for example is depicted based on the difference between inadvertent infection with and without protection. Or rather, efficacy or relative risk calculations are done using the same formula, but knowledge of HIV transmission probability adds estimates to the number of events that theoretically produces inevitable infection. Here is a more detailed breakdown based on relevant variables: About the Data | HIV Risk Reduction Tool | CDC HIVRISK.CDC.GOV

I PVR these on Canada’s TSN channel because I am still sleeping, and view in the morning. Both of today’s final group stage games were cut off at the end due to overage. Then it occurred to me to just PVR the following program as well because it is set up for game debriefing and is naturally just encroached upon. Well, duh. As for 🇨🇦 showing … Welp. FIFA soccer, FINA Aquatics, Athletics Diamond League, World Athletics, and World Gymnastics (early Fall) nice partial fill ins for this year’s atypical skipping of a summer trip to Europe.

Model from Brazil, based mostly in China since 2016, this year predominantly Xiamen. Movement over the years seems limited to Europe, Thailand, Dubai, or return to Brazil. No evidence on social media of ever having entered USA in spite of apparently possessing an Italian passport. He is, as another poster suggested, celso93 on Onlyfans. The RM photos are real, not stolen, but as others opined he may be mainly seeking advantageous contacts. He could, perhaps, prevail upon plausible deniability if confronted by associates, and claim his RM photos are misappropriated; that would explain the caginess, and he may be only comfortable with associates knowing his OF affiliation, which he follows on IG. I don’t know much about modelling but his many clothing outfits are not brand-tagged on social media so I question if he actually makes a living as a fashion model.

IF I have this right: The CDC references 99% efficacy when HIV PrEP taken optimally or consistently, based on controlled trials data; and explicitly states LESS effectiveness if taken inconsistently, based on both the very small number of breakthrough infections in controlled trials that are in fact deemed attributable to breaches in consistent uptake, and “real-world” research (eg, case-control) in which inconsistent uptake is expected. Therefore, nobody in the thread arbitrarily cherry-picked the 99% metric without underscoring the necessity of optimal or consistent adherence, or assuming such consistency would occur in your case. As such, neither the CDC nor any contributor here quoting 99% is pandering to the pharmaceutical industry. Other jurisdictions might say ‘up to 90% efficacy’ without distinguishing between the two research contexts. To my way of thinking that does not suggest greater conflict of interest distancing from industry stakeholders or improved scientific objectivity with respect to recommendations. Packaging optimal PrEP consumption as nearly failsafe does not subvert the messaging related to the liability of inconsistent use. The CDC also references breakthrough infections reported in clinical practice outside of trials and in spite of consistent uptake by the individual, the number too small to reduce the 99% assumption. Various national jurisdictions outside of USA may articulate guidance differently from the CDC in terms of how to express the distinctions between optimal and generally inconsistent uptake; optimal (daily) and consistent (ie, 4 doses per week) uptake where generally inconsistent uptake is defined as less than 4 (so 4 meets the optimal/ or consistent standard); and the merits or approval of the 2-1-1 on-demand event-driven regimen, not to be conflated with the 4 per week CDC consistency-defining standard that is distinct from the dispensing of AVERAGE 4 tabs (say, up to 52 doses quarterly supply with doses taken as needed based on demand) within on-demand research. What is new and surprising to me today is the assertion of 99% efficacy for what CDC labels as consistent (not optimal) uptake, 4 doses weekly, but the data seem to support it. That the CDC would reference less than daily uptake as extremely effective further supports the idea of distancing from pharmaceutical industry profit agendas. I think I have it down well enough that my own playbook is sound. Strictly on-demand but typically when travelling and anticipating activity, but substituting 7-1-1-…N… for 2-1-1 where N is the number of ongoing daily doses determined by the likely small or non-existent span between any one 2-1-1 and it’s subsequent series, and 7 is a daily dose leading up to first event. Extremely occasionally 2-1-1 where daily dosing a week prior to activity had been impossible, but the applicability of 4 daily prior doses is useful to know as it coheres with the CDC consistency if not optimal standard. That said, if I were to commence 7-day uptake within the 7-1-1-…N… plan, but activity available on earlier impromptu basis, I would likely still take the 2 doses if possible at that juncture. It seems unclear whether the 4 per week effectiveness hinges on having commenced with 7 days of dosing at the outset to reach sufficient plasma levels. All activity in conjunction with condom use. Sorry, Doxy thread …

Season 2 on Netflix mid upcoming week. Rave reviews by RottenTomatoes critics.

Petrillo also on the final competition day moved up to take the 200m bronze after finishing 4th (ie, last in the moderate blind; there are 3 categories: lowest level blind, moderate level blind with tethered running guide optional; and highest level blind all running guide tethered) because the 2nd place German and her guide inadvertently untethered just prior to the finish line and were disqualified. The latter two categories have 4 finalists to make room for running guided, whereas the lower level vision impaired have 8. Petrillo runs solo in the moderate category = max 5% vision. Interestingly, the women’s running guides are typically male as they need to match the blistering speed of female competitive para athletes running only a few seconds over non-para female athletes, so Petrillo as a trans female is running alongside males and females. FullSizeRender.MOV IMG_5558.MOV

He is in Midnight Family, Season 1 series anyway, yet to be released, based on Apple doc film of same name 2019.

My favourite flag is the last one in the examples. International Maritime Signal Flags That Would Be Helpful During Sex WWW.MCSWEENEYS.NET My vessel is healthy. - - I require a pilot. - - - All persons should report on board as the vessel is about to proceed to sea. - -...