What about the 14% who require hospitalization but for whom no hospital beds can possibly be found? I assume their mortality rate is very high. One way to energize the population in Germany or the US would be to build/convert temporary hospitals now.
Also, it's significant that there are virtually no community cases in Africa outside Egypt, Russia, Ukraine, South America, etc. In all of Mexico with 135 million people there are exactly 3 active cases. In 2009 Mexico was hit hard by the Swine Flu. Tourism and business relations may matter but warm weather may also with Coronavirus.