SARS scare anyone yet?

[+ glutes]

After the American Airlines plane that was grounded yesterday in San Jose for a possible SARS quarantine, where is this going folks? I'm more concerned about this a than any terrorist. We could easily see quarantine camps set-up here in the States similar to Honk Kong in the not too distant future...

[+ Lucky]

The elderly, infirm, and the sick could all get wiped out by this gift from China. People with HIV are sitting ducks. What year was that flu that killed 20 million people? 1918? Can it happen again?

[Traveller]

>After the American Airlines plane that was grounded yesterday

>in San Jose for a possible SARS quarantine, where is this

>going folks?

 

We've had enough happen on the East Coast. As long as it mainly strikes and kills in California, it won't be so bad; although there are a boat load of latino escorts out there, hmmmmmmmmmmm..............

 

Later.

[Guest Tampa Yankee]

>The elderly, infirm, and the sick could all get wiped out by

>this gift from China.

 

Not sure about that. Heard one report that it seemed to hit the strong healthy adults not the old and the young. If true, this is not dissimilar to the Spanish Flu Pandemic of the winter of 1918-19. Those 20 to 40 were the hardest hit.

 

 

What

>year was that flu that killed 20 million people? 1918? Can it

>happen again?

 

You bet it can. That possibility has been the real concern of infectious disease specialists for a very long time -- not AIDS, not Ebola, or other horrendous diseases. When the ease and rapidity of the spread of influenza is combined with an extremely virulent strain, you have the recipe for a health disaster. Hopefully this is not it.

[Matt_Vancouver]

Traveller: ) Always putting things back into perspective: )

Matt(concealing weapons of ASS DESTRUCTION)

[alanalt]

Okay, lets get some perspective here. The influenza epidemic of 1917-21 had about a 20-30% fatality rate, SARS has about 4-5%. There was no World Health Organization to monitor and collect data and work with the afflicted areas. We haven't just emerged from a global conflict that strained the world's medical system to the limit and imposed widespread food-rationing and nutritional deficits on several continents. Not to mention the enormous advances in medicine since then...

 

With an estimated 10 day incubation period, we'll soon know whether the quarantine measures being taken are effective. In fact, we probably would have caught this thing a lot faster if China hadn't witheld a lot of data from the WHO until very recently

 

I agree that there's a lot of potentially nasty stuff out there, but I very much doubt that SARS is going to be the new 'influenza epidemic'...

[tedbear]

> What year was that flu that killed 20 million people? 1918? Can it

>happen again?

 

My father was a newborn in 1918 when all of his brothers and some of his sisters were killed by the flu. (there were still 13 of them left, some step-siblings, some half-siblings, but it was a house FULL of kids!) We're not really sure how many died, but it was probably around 5. My father had the flu and didn't walk or talk until after he turned 3.

[Guest JT]

Think SARS is bad enough, sit tight, wait and see the next flu pandemic.

 

The Spanish flu (1918-1919) epidemic wiped out an estimated 20 - 40 million people from the surface of the earth. In North America alone, there were about 750,000 deaths. Unlike other flu strains, the H1NSW killed many young adults, and not only the elderly and the very young.

 

What progress has been made about flu prevention and treatment in the last 90+ years? An international surveillance system (WHO) that would only be successfuk if participating countries actually report their cases/outbreaks in an accurate and timely fashion. Vaccination that would only work if the vaccines match well with the circulating strains. Some antivirals (such as Amantadine) that only seem to work when given prior to infection or at early stage of the infection. Yes, we may have more hospitals, public health intelligence and infrastructure in place now but the ease of air travel and increased urbanization (overcrowding) can no doubt speed up the spread of a new emerging flu strain. Many of us in the medical community believe it is almost time that such a strain will emerge soon and another pandemic unfolds right in front of our eyes.

 

Based on the currently available data, SARS (with a global case fatality rate of less than 5 %) is not as deadly as many other infectious agents, despite its apparent rapid spread. However, there are two interesting development about this outbreak. In Canada, the six people who died were found to be either elderly or people already with a serious underlying medical illness that has compromized their immune system. Infected younger adults who are immunocompetent seem to only experience relatively mild/moderate symptoms and recover without complications. Similar observation has been made in Hong Kong where more cases have been reported. That said, there is now some speculation, based on incomplete epidemiological data, that SARS could be spread by fomites (objects such as door knobs contaminated by the infectious droplets), vehicles (food and water) and/or airborne. If the latter were to be true, then we could expect to see more new cases emerging in the next while, especially in light of some new evidence suggesting that the incubation period can be as long as 14 days (rather than the 7 days we initially estimated).

 

So are you guys gonna stop hiring or seeing clients?

 

JT

[Luv2play]

No, but this is going to kill Asian tourism and even, I dare say, tourism in the Toronto area. Already, a gathering of 12,000 cancer researchers has cancelled a convention to Toronto for next week. In my own little way, I deferred a trip there this week to wait and see how things shake out. The number of Toronto cases (129) and deaths (7) continue to rise almost daily. No cases in Montreal or the whole province of Quebec yet so we're keeping our fingers crossed. But then , we don't have the Chinese population that emigrated from Hong Kong 10 years ago to Toronto and Vancouver. Because of the French language requirements, they all went elsewhere. So we don't have the same patterns of travel. Of course, this is what makes the SARS situation so unpredictable in this age of jet travel, where people move around so quickly. Not like 1918/19 when the Spanish flu killed millions but then, that was a more virulent form of flu, it would appear.:-(

[trilingual]

It kind of scares me, because I managed to get pneumonia three or four times before being informed there was a vaccine for it! (And even after being vaccinated, I caught it once more -- the vaccine only protects against the most common bacterial pneumonias, not ones caused by viruses or mycoplasmas.) My lungs seem to be my Achilles' heel (I also have asthma) and almost all of the times I've caught flu or pneumonia have been immediately after a long flight. So I figure if anyone's going to catch this, it's probably gonna be me!!! And there's already a suspected case in Brazil: a British journalist who flew into SP from Malaysia to cover a Formula 1 race.

 

Interestingly, I think that after all the years of flu and colds, and vaccinations, I've developed some natural immunity to flu. (Now that I'm nearly 57, I've probably had just about every variant around!) Because of another health issue, ever since 1990 I've been advised NOT to get the flu shot, but I haven't had the flu since then, even being unvaccinated! So what are the odds of that, given my past history, unless some immunity has developed? Of course, I realize the flu virus mutates like crazy, so eventually I'll catch it again, but so far, so good. . .