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Of the 34 shows opening this year on Broadway, only 11 were musicals. 5 revivals and 6 originals. And while the show pickings are slim, the performances are not. 
The producers of Rocky Horror put Andrew Durant up for Leading Actor, which allowed the eligibility in the category to be large enough (9) for five nominees. And I heard that the producers of Ragtime were thinking of putting Brandon Uranowitz in the Supporting Category so he wouldn't have to compete with Joshua Henry in the Lead Actor race, but that didn't happen..

Josh and Brandon are both locks for nods, as are Sam Tutty for Two Strangers, and Nicholas Christopher in Chess. The fifth slot will probably go to either Luke Evans for Rocky Horror or LJ Benet for Lost Boys. I'd pick Luke but I bet LJ gets the spot.
Alex Brightman doesn't really sing, and although the lead, seems secondary to the other gents in the story, Aaron Tveit sings beautifully, but doesn't soar as Freddy, and I don't think Andrew D's Brad has enough "oomph" to carry him into the list.

The actress category is a tougher call. There are 10 eligible performers and I think only three of them are sure-things. Lea Michele, Caissie Levy, and Marla Mindelle.  
There are several who I don't think are real contenders, Christine Sherill (Mamma Mia), Stephanie Hsu (Rocky Horror), and Kelli Barrett (Beaches)

Which leaves Christiani Pitts (Two Strangers), Jessica Vosk (Beaches) Kristen Chenoweth (Queen of Versailles) and Sara Chase (Schmigadoon) up for the last two slots. Chenoweth is a Broadway darling, but the show was not good and came and went quickly. But if they want her to be at the awards, they're going to have to nominate her. Christiani Pitts is great in Two Strangers, but her character is so underdeveloped that it's tough to like her. I love Jessica Vosk, who makes Beaches worth going to...maybe the token nod for this show. And Sara Chase is great in Schmigadoon, but is overshadowed by the terrific Featured performers. Me? I'd pick Vosk and Chenoweth. but I suspect it will be Pitts and Chase. LOL 

Posted (edited)
On 5/3/2026 at 11:53 AM, skynyc said:

Josh and Brandon are both locks for nods, as are Sam Tutty for Two Strangers, and Nicholas Christopher in Chess. The fifth slot will probably go to either Luke Evans for Rocky Horror or LJ Benet for Lost Boys. I'd pick Luke but I bet LJ gets the spot.

You nailed this list by picking Luke!

The women are quite the mixed bag.  I read several forecasts for this category over the weekend and no one picked these five as the nominees.  I heard Christine Pedi on Sirius XM this afternoon say this is the deepest category this year as each of these performances is different from the other four.

Edited by sam.fitzpatrick
Posted
On 5/3/2026 at 11:53 AM, skynyc said:

Of the 34 shows opening this year on Broadway, only 11 were musicals. 5 revivals and 6 originals. And while the show pickings are slim, the performances are not. 
The producers of Rocky Horror put Andrew Durant up for Leading Actor, which allowed the eligibility in the category to be large enough (9) for five nominees. And I heard that the producers of Ragtime were thinking of putting Brandon Uranowitz in the Supporting Category so he wouldn't have to compete with Joshua Henry in the Lead Actor race, but that didn't happen..

Josh and Brandon are both locks for nods, as are Sam Tutty for Two Strangers, and Nicholas Christopher in Chess. The fifth slot will probably go to either Luke Evans for Rocky Horror or LJ Benet for Lost Boys. I'd pick Luke but I bet LJ gets the spot.
Alex Brightman doesn't really sing, and although the lead, seems secondary to the other gents in the story, Aaron Tveit sings beautifully, but doesn't soar as Freddy, and I don't think Andrew D's Brad has enough "oomph" to carry him into the list.

The actress category is a tougher call. There are 10 eligible performers and I think only three of them are sure-things. Lea Michele, Caissie Levy, and Marla Mindelle.  
There are several who I don't think are real contenders, Christine Sherill (Mamma Mia), Stephanie Hsu (Rocky Horror), and Kelli Barrett (Beaches)

Which leaves Christiani Pitts (Two Strangers), Jessica Vosk (Beaches) Kristen Chenoweth (Queen of Versailles) and Sara Chase (Schmigadoon) up for the last two slots. Chenoweth is a Broadway darling, but the show was not good and came and went quickly. But if they want her to be at the awards, they're going to have to nominate her. Christiani Pitts is great in Two Strangers, but her character is so underdeveloped that it's tough to like her. I love Jessica Vosk, who makes Beaches worth going to...maybe the token nod for this show. And Sara Chase is great in Schmigadoon, but is overshadowed by the terrific Featured performers. Me? I'd pick Vosk and Chenoweth. but I suspect it will be Pitts and Chase. LOL 

What did you make of the nominations that just came out?

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