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US Open (tennis)


BSR
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If you're hoping to discuss golf's US Open, gotta start your own thread 😁

The US Open starts in a few weeks (Aug 30), and a few developments are worth talking about.  For me, the number one lead-up story is the health of the Big 3.  As I was hoping for ever since Novak upset Rafa in the Roland Garros semifinal, all Big 3 are tied at 20 Slams apiece and will go into the USO trying to grab the lead.  Unfortunately, I have my doubts about two of the three.

After the Australian Open 2020, Roger underwent two knee surgeries and didn't play a match for the rest of 2020.  His comeback in 2021 has been rather wonky, playing just 13 matches (9-4 W-L) and withdrawing from the two Masters1000s Canada & Cincinnati.  Rafa injured his foot (a bone issue in his left foot has been a problem since he was a teenager) during the RG semi.  He withdrew from Wimbledon & the Olympics to recover.  He was feeling fine in practice but felt pain again during both DC Open matches.  He has also withdrawn from Canada & Cincinnati.  The Big 3 guy whose health I don't worry about is Novak.  While he cited "multiple injuries" after pulling out of the mixed doubles bronze medal match, reports are that he now feels 100% and withdrew from Cincinnati (don't think he ever signed up to play Canada) for mental rest & recuperation, not physical.

Mind you, whether Roger & Rafa play or not, Novak will still have plenty of competition trying to deny him the calendar-year Grand Slam. The much younger Next Gen (25yo Medvedev, 25yo Berrettini, 24yo Zverev, and 22yo Tsitsipas) is 100% fit & raring to go.  All 4 of those Next Gen guys are very good players and (except maybe Zverev) future Slam champions.  Even though I don't see Zverev winning the USO, he is very capable of upsetting Novak in the semis or quarters (then he'll choke the final).  But boy oh boy, the US Open will be vastly more interesting if Roger & Rafa are healthy and contending for the title.

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1 hour ago, Charlie said:

I wouldn't be surprised if this will be the second USO in a row without Roger or Rafa, or even the defending champion Thiem. Novak won't have to go through any of them to get to the final, but will he become overconfident and be upset by someone unexpected, as he was in Tokyo?

Roger is officially out.  He will undergo a third(!) knee surgery & will need a minimum 6 months recovery.  Rafa is a wait & see, but honestly, it's not looking good.  Even if he does end up playing, that pesky foot problem might come back at any time, especially on unforgiving hard courts.  Defending champ Thiem definitely plans on playing, but he'll go into the USO with no tournament prep, and Domi is the kind of player who needs a lot of reps to find his game.

Novak's biggest competition will be the Next Gen guys:  Medvedev, Tsitsipas, Zverev & maybe Berrettini.  Novak crushed Medvedev so badly in Australia that I think Daniil might still bear the scars.  Tsitsipas doesn't seem to have recovered from blowing the Roland Garros final from 2 sets to love lead.  Novak seems to have figured out how to get past Berrettini's monster serve & forehand and attack his vulnerable backhand.  The player I worry about most is Zverev.  He played god-like tennis to come back against Novak in the Olympics semi.  Whether Zverev can overcome the mental issues that plague him in Slams is another issue. 

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Novak's failure to bring home any medal from the Olympics must have been a big disappointment, but he still should be motivated to win the calendar year Grand Slam. However, will the fact that this is probably the only opportunity he will ever have to  accomplish that elusive goal unnerve him the way it did Serena in 2015, when she was upset by Roberta Vinci, of all people, in the semis?

Of course, there are all sorts of imponderables in the situation this year, from the weather to the pandemic-influenced playing conditions in NYC, so one can't focus only on who the players are. Who would have predicted that Novak would be defaulted in a bizarre incident last year? That said, I wouldn't write off the chances of Medvedev or Tsitsipas, both of whom played exceptionally well in Toronto this past weekend.

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12 hours ago, Charlie said:

Novak's failure to bring home any medal from the Olympics must have been a big disappointment, but he still should be motivated to win the calendar year Grand Slam. However, will the fact that this is probably the only opportunity he will ever have to  accomplish that elusive goal unnerve him the way it did Serena in 2015, when she was upset by Roberta Vinci, of all people, in the semis?

Of course, there are all sorts of imponderables in the situation this year, from the weather to the pandemic-influenced playing conditions in NYC, so one can't focus only on who the players are. Who would have predicted that Novak would be defaulted in a bizarre incident last year? That said, I wouldn't write off the chances of Medvedev or Tsitsipas, both of whom played exceptionally well in Toronto this past weekend.

I remember Vinci's shocking upset over Serena.  The Italian hit soft, low slices that were landing short, which drove Serena crazy because she couldn't hit them with pace or topspin.  On the forehand, Vinci was hitting no-pace moonballs, which also drove Serena crazy because like most players she prefers pace and struggles with floaty no-pace balls.  Serena's coach Mouratoglou claimed that Serena suffered a knee injury during the match, but I recall Vinci's unconventional playing style coupled with the pressure of the occasion getting to Serena, don't remember seeing impaired movement.

The scalpers' market went berserk in anticipation of Serena's possible Grand Slam, with even not-that-great seats going for $thousands.  Imagine how the market crashed after the Vinci upset.  Since the US Open crowd is super pro-USA, I doubt Novak's Grand Slam bid will spark a bidding frenzy.  Besides, he's the redheaded stepchild of the Big 3.  Rafa has his fans, especially among Latino-Americans.  Roger's appeal transcends any sense of nationalism.  Only die-hard tennis fans and of course Serbs will be riveted to Novak's Slam quest.  The general public, meh, not so much.

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4 minutes ago, Charlie said:

Thiem announced today that he will not be playing for the rest of the year.

Well, that didn't last long.  Yikes, his wrist injury must be really serious.  I really like Domi.  I hope he doesn't end up like Dolgopolov (Ukrainian who felt a snap in his wrist on a return, never recovered despite multiple surgeries, ended his career).

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12 hours ago, BSR said:

Well, that didn't last long.  Yikes, his wrist injury must be really serious.  I really like Domi.  I hope he doesn't end up like Dolgopolov (Ukrainian who felt a snap in his wrist on a return, never recovered despite multiple surgeries, ended his career).

Or del Potro, who has never been the same since that first wrist injury.

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We were all waiting for the other shoe to drop ... Rafa announced via Twitter that he is withdrawing from the US Open & will not play for the rest of 2021.  What so many were eagerly anticipating, a showdown between the three 20-Slam living legends, has fizzled with both Roger & Rafa out.  Now Novak alone has to fend off the Next Gen.

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Now everyone will be focused on Medvedev plus the newbies on the other side of the draw, because one of them will definitely make the final. And if Novak fails to make the final, then there will certainly be another first-time US Open champion (I am discounting the possibility of Cilic winning again🙄).

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On 8/20/2021 at 7:30 AM, Charlie said:

Now everyone will be focused on Medvedev plus the newbies on the other side of the draw, because one of them will definitely make the final. And if Novak fails to make the final, then there will certainly be another first-time US Open champion (I am discounting the possibility of Cilic winning again🙄).

Thanks to all the withdrawals, Andy Murray got direct entry into the USO main draw, but I'm giving Sir Andy about as much of a chance as Cilic of winning another title at Flushing Meadows.  With so many Slam champs out with injury (Roger, Rafa, Wawrinka, del Potro, Thiem), only three Slam champs (Novak, Murray, Cilic) are in the men's draw.  In contrast, 15 Slam champs are in the women's draw.

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8 hours ago, BSR said:

Thanks to all the withdrawals, Andy Murray got direct entry into the USO main draw, but I'm giving Sir Andy about as much of a chance as Cilic of winning another title at Flushing Meadows.  With so many Slam champs out with injury (Roger, Rafa, Wawrinka, del Potro, Thiem), only three Slam champs (Novak, Murray, Cilic) are in the men's draw.  In contrast, 15 Slam champs are in the women's draw.

Novak has five times as many titles as the other two, and may increase that lead. Serena and Venus have more titles than the other 13 women combined, but I don't expect to see either of them in the final. The women's game seems much more competitive at the top these days than the men's game does.

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5 hours ago, Charlie said:

Novak has five times as many titles as the other two, and may increase that lead. Serena and Venus have more titles than the other 13 women combined, but I don't expect to see either of them in the final. The women's game seems much more competitive at the top these days than the men's game does.

Have you heard anything about Serena's injury?  It looked like she pulled a hamstring at Wimbledon, and as I recall from my days as a baseball fan, hamstring pulls can take a surprisingly long time to heal.  Since she didn't enter any tune-up events prior to the USO, I have to wonder about her fitness.

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At first it was described as an ankle injury, but later it was described as an aggravation of a hamstring problem. They have been pretty closed-mouthed about explaining how serious it is, but she has not played at all since then, and she still has time to officially pull out of the Open. just as the men did. She has always been known for managing to win slams with no competitive preparation, but not in recent years, and she will turn 40 right after the tournament. No serious analyst seems to be talking about her as a possible winner this time.

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7 hours ago, Charlie said:

Venus and Serena have both withdrawn from the tournament.

I didn't know that Venus had been dealing with an injury, but I fully expected Serena's withdrawal, as did pretty much every tennis fan.  Even when a player doesn't enter tune-ups prior to a Slam, you usually hear something about workouts or practice sessions, that is, if they're healthy.  For example with Novak, who cited "multiple injuries" when he pulled out of his mixed dubs bronze medal match, there were sightings with video of Novak on the Adriatic coast, then on the beach in Marbella, and now on the practice courts in NYC.  Apparently he's in great spirits and appears to be 100% recovered from all physical ailments.  But with Serena, it was complete radio silence.  And whaddya know.

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15 hours ago, BSR said:

I didn't know that Venus had been dealing with an injury, but I fully expected Serena's withdrawal, as did pretty much every tennis fan.  Even when a player doesn't enter tune-ups prior to a Slam, you usually hear something about workouts or practice sessions, that is, if they're healthy.  For example with Novak, who cited "multiple injuries" when he pulled out of his mixed dubs bronze medal match, there were sightings with video of Novak on the Adriatic coast, then on the beach in Marbella, and now on the practice courts in NYC.  Apparently he's in great spirits and appears to be 100% recovered from all physical ailments.  But with Serena, it was complete radio silence.  And whaddya know.

"multiple injuries,"  really?  OK, Novak Djokovic. I doubt I will see him play at the Open during the day on August 30 and 31.

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8 hours ago, Charlie said:

Sofia Kenin--the last American to win a slam--is out because of a positive COVID test. I wonder how many more times that bell will be rung in the next three weeks.

(Novak has had COVID, but I wonder if he could get it again.)

I don't think the US Open is placing many if any restrictions on players, in stark contrast to the strict "bubbles" at other tournaments.  Remember when Musetti was booted from the Canadian Masters for picking up takeout a block from the players hotel?  With that kind of freedom and given the density of NYC, you have to think other players will inevitably contract the virus.  Whether the Covid-positive show symptoms or not, it's automatic ejection from the tournament. 

Oh gawd, as a die-hard Novak fan, I'll be crushed if his Grand Slam bid is thwarted by a positive Covid test.

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Gilles Simon was forced to withdraw from the US Open because of a positive Covid test.  Get this, though, his coach tested positive for Covid, not Gilles.  Despite his own negative test, Gilles still has to withdraw because he's not vaccinated.  According to the chatter on men's tennis forum, if he were vaxxed, he would be allowed to remain.

Yikes, I'm pretty sure Novak is not vaccinated.  He's never said one way or the other but has expressed doubt about the safety of the vaccine.  Mind you, I disagree with the rule.  If a player tests negative, vaxxed or not, he should be allowed to play.  But I don't make the rules, the USTA does, and the players all knew the rules going into the tournament.

If Novak gets the boot because one of his team (2 coaches and 1 physio) tests positive, the disappointment will be like his disastrous Olympics times a zillion.

Edited to add:  there's some debate over on MTF whether a vaccinated player who tests negative but whose coach tests positive would get expelled or not.  It sounds like whether you're vaxxed or not, you get the boot even if you test negative.  Doesn't sound fair, but them's the rules.

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