The recession is over?

[Guest antoanvegas]

Dudes

I would be interested to know and believe and you can hear the other opinions:

What is your personal feeling that the crisis is gone already?

[Guy Fawkes]

No.. My "Daytime" job is a bell ringer for the economy. I'm having a lot looky-lous, but no serious calls.

 

Dudes

I would be interested to know and believe and you can hear the other opinions:

What is your personal feeling that the crisis is gone already?

[cany10011]

I travel not too infrequently and if you'd ask my driver (who takes me to and from the airport), he would say almost two thirds of his business primarily from business travelers (marketing, finance, pharmaceuticals) are down.

[seeker630]

My position was eliminated Dec 31, and my colleagues all expect the annual downsizing to continue.

[Diverdan]

The overall economy is a bit better, but some sectors are still in very difficult shape, and a lot of sectors are not projected to get better for a couple of more years. In my own case, I find business comes much slower, is more difficult to obtain and everyone is delaying what ever they can to conserve cash. However, most major companies are loaded with cash, but don't want to spend because of fear... which is one of the major reasons hiring is so slow and downsizing continues.

[instudiocity]

Not in California - we're in deeper than ever.

[Michael Wayne]

90% of my clients say things are getting WORSE- not better! Cash is king and gold is good. Real estate is there for the taking but no guarantee market will ever return to make anything off buying low.

[jawjateck]

The Great Recession crisis may have passed, but this economy is awful. My consulting work is one of the least economically sensitive fields, yet even I began to feel the slowdown during the last six months of 2010. I did ok in 08, 09, and early 10, but my clients' budgets are stretched and began to postpone the use of my services. Those in government are hemorrhaging budget deficits, and the private clients/companies have good balance sheets, but are scared to spend, invest, or hire.

 

I feel compassion for the working middle of America being squeezed, have a job maybe (but with no wage inflation), even worse, these folks own no assets that are inflating but their cost of living (food, energy, healthcare) is rising sharply. My biz may be slow, but at least I still own some inflating assets (stocks, commodities), thanks to our unaccountable, out-of-control Federal Reserve (I will spare you my rant on that bunch of scum). Eventually it won't matter that asset prices are rising, because we are destroying our currency in the process.

[Guest antoanvegas]

I decide to post this because I had a chance to visit my born country in Europe. The situation there is on critical levels. Everybody I met there said that their business has been decreased to a critical low levels. The bank - robbers getting their cars, houses and so.

Personally, I am getting good volume, but we can wish much, much more.

[+ Charlie]

Interestingly, the escorts who answered my thread about their business said that 2010 was their best year ever, and 2011 was looking just as bright.

[Guest antoanvegas]

I did not mean only escorts. I was talking to lawyers, architects, merchants, and so as a whole.

Otherwise, it is true that in times of crisis people think about entertainment and in particular for escorts.

[bootdad]

In Canada - we have been luckier than most - we really have not felt the pain that the UK, Europe and America have experienced over the past few years. On the flip side we pay higher taxes than just about anyone for everything! And Toronto and Vancouver are extremely expensive cities for younger people (20 somethings) just starting out their careers.

That being said all the economic indicators (even for Australia) are cautiously optimistic. I am old enough to remember the oil crisis of the 70's, and periods of economic instability / uncertainty through the 80's and 90's and even the concerns about emerging from 9/11. All that being said - I remain optimistic - always try to see the glass as more than half full but must confess that as I start my 25th year in my boutique consulting practice (having had 2 periods of record growth through the mid 90's and then again most recently in 06 and 07 - when my lease came due in the middle of 08 - I chose not to extend for an additional 5 years.

Did I make the right decision - YES - 09 was a tough year, and last year was the toughest revenue year for me in more than a decade. I am in the enviable position of relying exclusively on freelance staff for all the projects I enter into. So downsizing / rightsizing can be done over night. I gave up my large office/studio and streamlined every aspect of my business.

As I speak to my contemporaries (we are all in related creative fields photography/design/graphics/ marketing) 2 rather frightening realities rear their ugly heads - none of us have been able to increase fees in more than a decade (in many cases we have all taken on assignments for less $$$ than we would have billed out in even in the early 90's - even though we all have incredibly more experience and stellar portfolios) and secondly I have college kids and freelancers calling me almost everyday looking for a scrap of work or a short term project.

Two of my top freelancers each made more than $50K just from me in the middle of this decade for 3 years in a row. Last year from me both of them made less than $ 15K and each has taken a 40% or more hit in billings and they are both only in their early 30's. With regret I think that for many of us (particularly those in the 'middle' class) who were accustomed to incomes between $100 to $150K have seen the best earning years of their careers. I suspect from a combination of experience, observing the actions of my diverse client base and almost daily conversations with contemporaries those of us over 45 years of age are gravely concerned about maintaining our standard of living and our income - I think this is especially true of those of us that are self employed. Trust me my friends in law / accounting / education - the majority of whom bitch about their careers constantly have a great deal more stability moving forward. In the end it all comes down to lifestyle choices - would I change anything I have done ??? Not a chance - I have had a great career - doing what I love doing with fantastic clients, however I am not optimistic that this new decade is going to play out well financially for very many people . . . SORRY FOLKS !!! We are all going to be making adjustments / sacrifices and doubling up on mortgage payments as we age and become more financially prudent in all our behaviour.

[bootdad]

This article speaks to some interesting realities on the horizon and is considerably more eloquent than my rant above - LOL !!!

 

http://www.feelguide.com/2011/01/11/new-study-confirms-demand-for-air-travel-and-car-ownership-peaked-in-2003/

[EZEtoGRU]

In answer to the original question, I think that technically the recession may be over......at least according to some definitions (something about 2-3 quarters of negative GDP growth). So the US economy as a whole may not be in decline but it is not growing too much either. Consumer sentiment seems to be on the rise and things do feel somewhat better somehow. However, I think it really depends on each persons personal circumstances. I you are still unemployed, in foreclosure, or actually homeless, things will still seem pretty bleak. Others have gotten through this pretty much unscathed and probably are living life as normal.

 

I do fear another shoe could fall in 2011. Many state and local governments will likely be cutting payrolls this year either by layoffs or reducing wages. Whilst it may be the right thing to do to get the local budgets in line, it will also be hurtful to the overall economy. Could cause us to enter the talked about double dip.

 

As some of you may know, I do travel quite extensively. One thing that has struck me this year is the notable increase in homelesss folks on the streets in Ameerican cities. I was shocked at how many homeless there are in San Diego and Honolulu. Surprisingly, many folks in San Diego forget it is all around them. They only really notice it again when it is pointed out to them. I understand this myopic vision. When I lived in Bogota and Sao Paulo I found I did start to block out the misery as a defense mechanism so as not to get upset everytime I would step out of the apartment.

 

The as many have already said, the recession varies depending on the part of the world. I visit Latin America frequently and I can confirm that with few exceptions (Mexico & Venezuela) there is no recession in Latin America. I was in Brazil in December and the economy there is going great guns. Lowest unemployment in many many years. As far as Europe goes, I was in Spain several times last year and things were definitely not good.....although, frankly, it did not seem as bleak as in the US.

 

Don't know if this was helpful, but these are my thoughts.

[rossthebosssf]

Interestingly, the escorts who answered my thread about their business said that 2010 was their best year ever, and 2011 was looking just as bright.

 

My empty wallet agrees.

[gcursor]

The recession isn't dead. It's being held in committee by the Senate and the House until the next election.

[+ Axiom2001]

Not in California - we're in deeper than ever.

 

Yes, and it will get WORSE I very sadly say! Within the months to come, more folks will lose their jobs; education and social programs will suffer more and more; the pension plans will be affected, and on and on and on! It looks quite bleak here, and I am truly saddened because CALIFORNIA has always been a progressive state for the most part and was dubbed "The Golden State." Now I refer to my adopted state for some 40+ years as being "The Tarnished State!" (a frowning icon here)

[Diverdan]

I've been spending the past few days in Las Vegas at meetings, and in the few hours I have had on my own, I have been struck by a number of observations. During the day and early evenings, the high end shops are dead. Often I have seen only one customer, and large numbers of staff just standing around. The casinos also seem to be rather empty, although I must admit, I have not been in any of them in the wee hours in the morning. Granted this is during the week and perhaps things pick up on the weekends. The best indicator of what is going on here, at least is the daily fluctuation in room rates. I have had a different rate every night I have been here, from a low of $79 to a high of $129, and this room is considered a small suite ! Those in management of hotels around the country say that occupancy is rising and that rates are soon going to go up, but that would not be my prediction based on information from staff who work in these establishments. I agree with bootday and with EZEtoGRU, the recession may be technically over, but for thousands and perhaps millions of American's you can't get them to agree. They are holding on and hoping things get better. I have cut back on all of my discretionary spending until I have more confidence that my income will stabalize.

DD