A question for our Canadian friends

[EZEtoGRU]

Canada has had a somewhat milder experience with the COVID-19 pandemic....certainly as compared with the US. Montreal appears to be the hotspot for the nation The province of Quebec accounts for 61% of all the COVID deaths in Canada. Total COVID deaths in the country stand at 5,782 versus 89,932 deaths so far in the US. What is the honest Canadian perception of the COVID situation in the US? Is the average Canadian concerned about the eventual opening up of travel between the US and Canada? When do you personally feel that travel between the two countries will be relaxed?

[CuriousByNature]

Hmmm. Good questions. It is likely our numbers would have been considerably lower still if the Quebec school break had been at the same time as the rest of Canada. Unfortunately many Quebec families traveled over their spring break, which was two weeks earlier than the rest of Canada and before heavy travel restrictions were in place.

 

In any case, one factor is that COVID hasn't become politicized in Canada to the extent that it has in the USA. Leaders from most parties here generally united their efforts to respond more quickly and more decisively.

 

For the most part, I believe, Canadians tend to be less worried about infringement of our individual rights when the health of the nation is at stake. There are those who certainly raise a stink about social distancing, etc, but most people have complied quite well.

 

I think BC's response has been the most effective - a population of 5 million people and lots of travel to and from China, with 'only' 141 deaths so far. 49 people in hospital at the moment with about 11 of those in ICU. Washington state reported its 1000th death this weekend, by comparison.

 

My heart breaks for those to the south who are struggling with much higher infection, hospitalization and fatality numbers, much less effective leadership in the upper eschalons of power, and much more costly health care. It continues to be an unfolding nightmare for sure.

 

Of course things are far from perfect here. I have always found the healthcare system in the USA to be excellent, with much shorter waits for elective surgeries and diagnostic tests. Here in Canada the wait times are horrendous. So there is a trade-off for having universal health care.

 

Another shameful aspect to the Canadian experience is the rise of racist acts against Asians. Disgusting.

 

Its also hard to compare the two countries because of the population size differences. I don't know how effective our response would be if our population was 350 million.

 

As for the borders, I hope Trudeau will not back down under pressure from Trump to reopen. Not until the USA significantly flattens its curve. All of our hard work to contain and manage the crisis could be for nothing if the borders open too soon.

[SirBillybob]

A recent poll suggests Canadians’ trust in Americans has bombed from 58% to 33% of respondents. The USA shutdown protests come across as more whacko and all the bad is highlighted in news cycles.

 

Americans trust in Canadians is currently 71% and is higher than their own trust (67%) in fellow Americans. Similarly, Canadians comfort in visiting USA is vastly lower than vice versa.

 

Note that rural Canadians also don’t want urban Canadian dwellers coming to their secondary summer properties.

 

There is currently considerable essential business travel across the border, so trade is ‘as usual’, notwithstanding supply/demand changes. Cross-border tourism restriction has reciprocal economic impact. That argument is perhaps more one of convenience and freedom of movement than one of differential economic loss.

 

Interestingly, the current per capita death rates in Quebec are similar to USA overall. French-speaking Canadians are also the least worried subgroup in North America and likely the most open to cross-border travel.

Edited May 18, 2020 by SirBIllybob

[Guest]

Canada has had a somewhat milder experience with the COVID-19 pandemic....certainly as compared with the US. Montreal appears to be the hotspot for the nation The province of Quebec accounts for 61% of all the COVID deaths in Canada. Total COVID deaths in the country stand at 5,782 versus 89,932 deaths so far in the US. What is the honest Canadian perception of the COVID situation in the US? Is the average Canadian concerned about the eventual opening up of travel between the US and Canada? When do you personally feel that travel between the two countries will be relaxed?

The population of the US is almost 10 times Canada's so the numbers aren't that far off per population. And 22,600 of the Covid-19 deaths are from New York, and 10,400 from New Jersey, that really skews the data. But I suspect that international travel is going to be difficult until there's either a reliable rapid test available, or a reliable and effective vaccine. Every week we learn something new.

[EZEtoGRU]

Hmmm. Good questions. It is likely our numbers would have been considerably lower still if the Quebec school break had been at the same time as the rest of Canada. Unfortunately many Quebec families traveled over their spring break, which was two weeks earlier than the rest of Canada and before heavy travel restrictions were in place.

 

In any case, one factor is that COVID hasn't become politicized in Canada to the extent that it has in the USA. Leaders from most parties here generally united their efforts to respond more quickly and more decisively.

 

For the most part, I believe, Canadians tend to be less worried about infringement of our individual rights when the health of the nation is at stake. There are those who certainly raise a stink about social distancing, etc, but most people have complied quite well.

 

I think BC's response has been the most effective - a population of 5 million people and lots of travel to and from China, with 'only' 141 deaths so far. 49 people in hospital at the moment with about 11 of those in ICU. Washington state reported its 1000th death this weekend, by comparison.

 

My heart breaks for those to the south who are struggling with much higher infection, hospitalization and fatality numbers, much less effective leadership in the upper eschalons of power, and much more costly health care. It continues to be an unfolding nightmare for sure.

 

Of course things are far from perfect here. I have always found the healthcare system in the USA to be excellent, with much shorter waits for elective surgeries and diagnostic tests. Here in Canada the wait times are horrendous. So there is a trade-off for having universal health care.

 

Another shameful aspect to the Canadian experience is the rise of racist acts against Asians. Disgusting.

 

Its also hard to compare the two countries because of the population size differences. I don't know how effective our response would be if our population was 350 million.

 

As for the borders, I hope Trudeau will not back down under pressure from Trump to reopen. Not until the USA significantly flattens its curve. All of our hard work to contain and manage the crisis could be for nothing if the borders open too soon.

Thanks for your thoughtful response. I agree that BC is an interesting case as to why the COVID incidence and death rates are comparatively so low.

 

I also share your concern about Trudeau caving to pressure from Trump on expanding cross-border travel too quickly. I can imagine Canada wanting to be very cautious about re-opening the border with the US. It will be an interesting one to watch.

[orville]

What is the honest Canadian perception of the COVID situation in the US?

Negligence by citizens and government but the latest way more irresponsible and inept.

 

Is the average Canadian concerned about the eventual opening up of travel between the US and Canada?

No. Trudeau expressed that there are no plans to open the border to non-essential travel any time soon. Makes sense due to US Covid numbers.

 

When do you personally feel that travel between the two countries will be relaxed?

I think authorities will start to think of it if US Covid numbers start to decrease insted of increasing and even so, they will implement strict control of entry at the borders, as the US will probably do as well.

[thickornotatall]

My Cousin Ronnie lives in Edmonton Alberta in a high rise downtown. He has Parkinson's and has trouble doing his shopping ….There is a lockdown in his apartment building. The complex is built for 65+ with 3 distinct levels...Some assisted living...some memory care..He is the in and out level..meaning he can come and go as he wants. Except now if he leaves he can't go back. The Canadian government picks up all his costs during the lockdown. Meals..meds...laundry and all shopping are at their cost.. He raves about the service excepting that his children and grand-children are barred....Hopefully next month the lockdown/out will be lifted...

[RealAvalon]

I've written about this in the 'What other countries are doing about COVID' thread. There is large support for keeping the border closed for now - several of the provincial Premiers have made public pleas to the federal government to keep it closed. And for now it is closed until June 21st. I've wondered about how this is going to play out politically between Canada and the USA, and whether it's going to be another awful NAFTA renewal negotiation with the Trump administration. The border will, I expect, become a political issue for the USA administration ('everything is back to normal, nothing to see here folks'), and Trudeau and the Premiers will try and filter the rhetoric and respond as sensibly (science-based) as possible.

 

With more extensive testing and follow-up per capita than the USA, the number of cases is about 1/3 of the USA rate, and the number of deaths about 1/2 the USA rate. And as @EZEtoGRU said, more than 60% of that is in Quebec, which has only about 25% of the population. The timing of spring break and proximity to New York, are postulated as explanations for Quebec's unusually high number of cases.

 

I don't know what the day to day experience of health case is in the USA. I can tell you that in Canada, I am secure that if I am infected and require medical treatment, I know the response will be prompt and comprehensive, and I will not have to ever waste one moment thinking about what is or isn't covered by insurance, or if I will have a bill to pay after it is all over. There will be no medical bill. Perhaps some prescription costs.

 

Canada has lucked out with the timing of this pandemic, in the same way Canada lucked out with the 2008 recession. There is a minority government in Ottawa - which requires the government to work with the other political parties. Minority government has always been the best government in Canada. (National employment insurance and universal health insurance with a 60's minority government, and a national housing program with a 70's minority government.)

 

Canada - across all political parties - has had a science based non-politicized approach to the pandemic so far. (In the case of BC, for example, the provincial government has had the opposition health critic hosting some of the on-line town hall meetings about the pandemic.) It's not all sweetness and light of course. The Liberal and Conservative parties have had a few public dust ups. The first was during the passage of the initial legislation to allow for the Canadian Emergency Relief Benefit (CERB), of $500/week, for people not covered by Employment Insurance. The legislation submitted in the House of Commons had a longer period of approval than the draft that had been submitted to the other federal parties - and the Conservatives labelled it as a power grab. And a compromise was worked out.

 

Canada and the USA were in different economic/budget situations at the start of this pandemic. Canada's national debt to GDP ratio was around 50% and falling, and the USA was 110% and rising. Many of the provincial governments that were operating with budget surpluses (and paying down debt) are now facing deficits. Canada has been able to afford to prime the pump with stimulus spending to support various sectors in the economy (multiply by nine for approximate USA equivalence). $500 million to the arts, $2.5 billion to oil industry (including money to clean up abandoned oil/gas wells in pursuit of climate goals), $270 million to agriculture (they want a lot more), $200 million to medical research, billions of dollars to provinces to support health care systems, WHO funding for international work. There's almost no sector of society that hasn't received some sort of federal funding: fisheries, mental health, homeless, arts and culture, students, seniors, families, airlines etc. etc.

 

As a self-employed person that has had contracts dry up, I have been able to receive the CERB. The program began April 2nd, and was back dated to March 15th. By the middle of April I had received $2,000, to cover the March 15th - April 15th period. By the end of April another $2,000 to cover the April 15th - May 15th period. Beginning of May an additional $2,000 to cover the May 15th - June 15th period. All of this money is taxable. The idea was to get it out the door into people's hands given the emergency situation, and next year when things calm down it can be taxed back from people that didn't need it. I.E. Non-hysterical.

 

As with the USA the virus has made obvious the weaknesses within the social fabric of the country. The long-term care system for seniors will be the subject of national debate, whether there needs to be national standards and additional federal dollars committed to improve the system.

Edited May 26, 2020 by RealAvalon

[EZEtoGRU]

I've written about this in the 'What other countries are doing about COVID' thread. There is large support for keeping the border closed for now - several of the provincial Premiers have made pubic pleas to the federal government to keep it closed. And for now it is closed until June 12th (or 17th - middle of June in any case). I've wondered about how this is going to play out politically between Canada and the USA, and whether it's going to be another awful NAFTA renewal negotiation with the Trump administration. The border will, I expect, become a political issue for the USA administration, and Trudeau and the Premiers will try and filter the rhetoric and respond as sensibly as possible.

 

With more extensive testing and follow-up on a per capita than the USA, the number of cases is about 1/3 of the USA rate, and the numbers of deaths about 1/2 the USA rate. And as @EZEtoGRU said more than 60% of that is in Quebec, which has only about 25% of the population.

 

I don't know what the day to day practical consideration in the USA is concerning health care. I can tell you that in Canada, I am secure that if I am infected and require medical treatment, I know that the response will be prompt and comprehensive, and I will not have to ever waste one moment about what is and isn't covered by insurance, or if I will have a bill to pay after it is all over. There will be no bill.

 

Canada has lucked out with the timing of this pandemic, in the same way Canada lucked out with the 2008 recession. There is a minority government in Ottawa - which requires the parties to work together. Minority government has always been the best government in Canada. (National employment insurance and universal health insurance with a 60's minority government, and a national housing program with a 70's minority government.)

 

Canada - across all political parties - has had a science based non-politicized approach to the pandemic so far. (In the case of BC, for example, the provincial government has had the opposition health critic hosting some of the on-line town hall meetings about the pandemic.) It's not all sweetness and light of course. The Liberal and Conservative parties have had a few public dust ups. The first was during the passage of the initial legislation to allow for the Canadian Emergency Relief Benefit (CERB), of $500/week, for people not covered by Employment Insurance. The legislation submitted in the House of Commons had a longer period of approval than the draft that had been submitted to the other federal parties - and the Conservatives labelled it as a power grab. And a compromise was worked out.

 

Canada and the USA were in different economic/budget situations at the start of this pandemic. Canada's national debt to GDP ratio was around 50% and falling, and the USA was 110% and rising. Many of the provincial governments that were operating with budget surpluses (and paying down debt) are now facing deficits. Canada has been able to afford to prime the pump with stimulus spending to support various sectors in the economy. $500 million to the arts, $2.5 billion to oil industry (including money to clean up abandoned wells in pursuit of climate goals), $270 million to agriculture (they want a lot more), $200 million to medical research, billions of dollars to provinces to support health care systems. There's almost no sector of society that hasn't received some sort of federal funding: fisheries, mental health, homeless, arts and culture, students, seniors, families, airlines etc. etc.

 

As a self-employed person that has had contracts dry up, I have been able to receive the CERB. The program began April 2nd, and was back dated to March 15th. By the middle of April I had received $2,000, to cover the March 15th - April 15th period. By the end of April another $2,000 to cover the April 15th - May 15th period. Beginning of May an additional $2,000 to cover the May 15th - June 15th period. All of this money is taxable. The idea was to get it out the door into people's hands given the emergency situation, and next year when things calm down it can be taxed back from the people that didn't need it. I.E. Non-hysterical.

 

As with the USA the virus has made obvious the weaknesses within the social fabric of the country. The long-term care system for seniors will be the subject of national debate, whether there needs to be national standards and additional federal dollars committed to improve the system.

RealAvalon thanks for your extensive response. I'm sure Trudeau will come under heavy pressure from Trump to normalize border traffic. I would encourage the PM to do what he thinks is the best thing for Canada and not allow himself to be bullied by our dictator.

 

Your comment about weaknesses with the long-term care system has been an issue in many countries....including in Europe. I agree this will be debated in many places going forward.

[RealAvalon]

RealAvalon thanks for your extensive response. I'm sure Trudeau will come under heavy pressure from Trump to normalize border traffic. I would encourage the PM to do what he thinks is the best thing for Canada and not allow himself to be bullied by our dictator.

 

Your comment about weaknesses with the long-term care system has been an issue in many countries....including in Europe. I agree this will be debated in many places going forward.

It was quite as lengthy as a Kessler

[SirBillybob]

As I review today’s data, the Canadian argument for border closure is flimsy on epidemiological grounds, unless Americans were to be flocking in from hotspots and we had to admit them to circus tent pop-ups.

 

Over the last month the total Canadian case tally multiplied by a factor of 2.45; American case tally by a factor of 2.16, and the per capita mortality rate has been on par of late, yesterday (May 17 single day) USA:Canada ratio merely 1.04

 

Total Canadian death tally over past month multiplied by a factor of 4.8 compared to USA an increase of x2.6

 

The logarithmic trajectories for both cumulative case count and mortality count are not at all looking more promising for Canada compared to our neighbours south of the border. I suspect Ontario’s premier would be keen to suppress this take on the data.

 

The one advantage in Canada is a mortality rate of 13% to USA’s 21%, both a percentage of respective closed-case outcomes. As this comparison figure deviates from recent per capita short-term rolling averages (as I indicated close to 1:1), it may be an artefact of absolute number differences, a dropping USA death rate over the full duration to date, definitional criteria for the combination of recovered/discharged, and socioeconomic vulnerability/disparity in the USA.

 

That said, ‘my American cousins’ are well advised to shun me and fellow Montrealers (faring much more poorly than USA as a whole), and run us out of Ogunquit this summer.

Edited May 18, 2020 by SirBIllybob

[RealAvalon]

As I review today’s data, the Canadian argument for border closure is flimsy on epidemiological grounds, unless Americans were to be flocking in from hotspots and we had to admit them to circus tent pop-ups.

 

Over the last month the total Canadian case tally multiplied by a factor of 2.45; American case tally by a factor of 2.16, and the per capita mortality rate has been on par of late, yesterday (May 17 single day) USA:Canada ratio merely 1.04

 

Total Canadian death tally over past month multiplied by a factor of 4.8 compared to USA an increase of x2.6

 

The logarithmic trajectories for both cumulative case count and mortality count are not at all looking more promising for Canada compared to our neighbours south of the border. I suspect Ontario’s premier would be keen to suppress this take on the data.

 

The one advantage in Canada is a mortality rate of 13% to USA’s 21%, both a percentage of respective closed-case outcomes. As this comparison figure deviates from recent per capita short-term rolling averages (as I indicated close to 1:1), it may be an artefact of absolute number differences, a dropping USA death rate over the full duration to date, definitional criteria for the combination of recovered/discharged, and socioeconomic vulnerability/disparity in the USA.

 

That said, ‘my American cousins’ are well advised to shun me and fellow Montrealers (faring much more poorly than USA as a whole), and run us out of Ogunquit this summer.

You would also need to factor in the unreported COVID deaths in the USA. Comparisons are difficult without that information.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/13/opinion/coronavirus-us-deaths.html

 

If someone else has information about the significant bump in unexplained deaths in the USA for March and April, that isn't behind a paywall ... please post the link.

Edited May 18, 2020 by RealAvalon

[SirBillybob]

You would also need to factor in the unreported COVID deaths in the USA. Comparisons are difficult without that information.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/13/opinion/coronavirus-us-deaths.html

 

The plot can be thickened ad Infinitum. Spain is a third to USA, minimally surpassed by Russia, in absolute case tally but a much lower death:recovered ratio compared to USA. If USA is obscuring/suppressing Covid-19 death tally then one might assume Spain is doing so even more. I also thought that there has been conjecture about unrelated mortality occurring as a result of lower uptake of pre-pandemic needed medical care. Of course, if data collection is not standardized comparisons are challenging. I don’t spend all day on this but note that Worldometer, where I access data, has attempted to calculate actual deaths (composite of confirmed deaths plus proportion excess deaths attributable to Covid-19) in contrast to confirmed deaths alone, in NYC. A key variable to factor in is reasonably accurate antibody data.

Edited May 18, 2020 by SirBIllybob

[BgMstr4u]

Of course, if data collection is not standardized comparisons are challenging.

Boy, is that the truth!

[EZEtoGRU]

The population of the US is almost 10 times Canada's so the numbers aren't that far off per population. And 22,600 of the Covid-19 deaths are from New York, and 10,400 from New Jersey, that really skews the data. But I suspect that international travel is going to be difficult until there's either a reliable rapid test available, or a reliable and effective vaccine. Every week we learn something new.

I've looked at the numbers fairly closely today. Canada's reported COVID-19 deaths are running at just over half the US rate when adjusted for population. I then isolated out the key hotspot area for each country. For the US, I removed the numbers for NY/NJ/CT and for Canada, I removed the numbers for QC. The results are even more stark with Canada deaths being less than half of the US deaths when adjusted for population.

 

Anyway you look at it, Canada is faring much better than the US in terms of COVID-related deaths. Their rate is +/- half the US rate. To me that is quite meaningful. I do agree with your comment that international travel will be difficult and will recover slowly.

[RealAvalon]

I've looked at the numbers fairly closely today. Canada's reported COVID-19 deaths are running at just over half the US rate when adjusted for population. I then isolated out the key hotspot area for each country. For the US, I removed the numbers for NY/NJ/CT and for Canada, I removed the numbers for QC. The results are even more stark with Canada deaths being less than half of the US deaths when adjusted for population.

 

Anyway you look at it, Canada is faring much better than the US in terms of COVID-related deaths. Their rate is +/- half the US rate. To me that is quite meaningful. I do agree with your comment that international travel will be difficult and will recover slowly.

COVID deaths have been concentrated in Quebec first, and in Ontario second. BC is between Alabama and South Carolina population wise. Vancouver is probably more of an international travel hub, especially from Asia, than either Birmingham or Columbia. The Centre for Disease Control in BC does phenomenal work.

 

Prevention is part of the DNA of the BC health care system. For example, the BCCDC has been a world leader with rolling out new public health responses to HIV including providing PrEP free of charge to high risk individuals to prevent spread of the virus.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/province-announces-hiv-drug-coverage-1.4467003

[Guest]

Is the average Canadian concerned about the eventual opening up of travel between the US and Canada?

 

I won't speak for Canadians as a whole, but personally, it doesn't stress me out all that much to think of border restrictions being thoughtfully eased. The impression I'm left with from our relatively successful pandemic response to date here in BC is that a broad reduction in physical interactions coupled with stronger measures in high-risk areas (care homes & hospitals, large events, public transit, etc) can be quite effective. BC has remained open to travellers from worse-hit parts of Canada, as well as "essential" business travellers from abroad, and spillover of those areas' outbreaks has been minimal. If the same or stronger precautions (and they'd almost certainly be stronger) can be maintained for international travel as for interprovincial travel, it would seem sensible to have similar levels of control in place. To put it another way, our public health officials talk about keeping total interactions below 60% of pre-pandemic levels, in order to maintain R < 1, and I don't see anything inherent in the nationality of visitors that would, in and of itself, lift that level above 60%.

 

Anecdotally, I have heard many stories of Canadian and American expats and dual citizens being separated from families, partners, and jobs or prospective jobs because the bureaucracy hasn't deemed their reasons for crossing the border "essential". I'd love to see them given the option to make that decision for themselves, as long as they observe precautionary measures.

 

Maybe I'm naive, but I don't expect that hoards of Americans with exposure risk and no motive beyond pleasure would suddenly sweep across the border if restrictions were loosened. Of course, I'm willing to be proven wrong, and I'm glad to see that our provincial and federal leaders are warning in advance of the possibility of reintroducing restrictions if their loosening leads to fresh outbreaks.

[CuriousByNature]

I won't speak for Canadians as a whole, but personally, it doesn't stress me out all that much to think of border restrictions being thoughtfully eased. The impression I'm left with from our relatively successful pandemic response to date here in BC is that a broad reduction in physical interactions coupled with stronger measures in high-risk areas (care homes & hospitals, large events, public transit, etc) can be quite effective. BC has remained open to travellers from worse-hit parts of Canada, as well as "essential" business travellers from abroad, and spillover of those areas' outbreaks has been minimal. If the same or stronger precautions (and they'd almost certainly be stronger) can be maintained for international travel as for interprovincial travel, it would seem sensible to have similar levels of control in place. To put it another way, our public health officials talk about keeping total interactions below 60% of pre-pandemic levels, in order to maintain R < 1, and I don't see anything inherent in the nationality of visitors that would, in and of itself, lift that level above 60%.

 

Anecdotally, I have heard many stories of Canadian and American expats and dual citizens being separated from families, partners, and jobs or prospective jobs because the bureaucracy hasn't deemed their reasons for crossing the border "essential". I'd love to see them given the option to make that decision for themselves, as long as they observe precautionary measures.

 

Maybe I'm naive, but I don't expect that hoards of Americans with exposure risk and no motive beyond pleasure would suddenly sweep across the border if restrictions were loosened. Of course, I'm willing to be proven wrong, and I'm glad to see that our provincial and federal leaders are warning in advance of the possibility of reintroducing restrictions if their loosening leads to fresh outbreaks.

I completely get where you're coming from. However, my concern isn't that Americans will flood across the border, but that Canadians will flood south to tourist hotspots and bring infections back home. I think that is a more likely scenario.

[Guest]

I completely get where you're coming from. However, my concern isn't that Americans will flood across the border, but that Canadians will flood south to tourist hotspots and bring infections back home. I think that is a more likely scenario.

That's a fair concern. You'd have to hope that they would a) think twice before travelling for pleasure, and b) observe the two-week isolation period when they return. I imagine the burden of the latter (which is now monitored daily) would discourage the former. Of course, I'm only speculating.

[SirBillybob]

I've looked at the numbers fairly closely today. Canada's reported COVID-19 deaths are running at just over half the US rate when adjusted for population. I then isolated out the key hotspot area for each country. For the US, I removed the numbers for NY/NJ/CT and for Canada, I removed the numbers for QC. The results are even more stark with Canada deaths being less than half of the US deaths when adjusted for population.

 

Anyway you look at it, Canada is faring much better than the US in terms of COVID-related deaths. Their rate is +/- half the US rate. To me that is quite meaningful. I do agree with your comment that international travel will be difficult and will recover slowly.

 

You are correct as far as comparing devastation.

 

If you look at recent rolling 7-day average death rate per capita, or increases over a reasonably representative chunk of recent past, however, you get a very different picture than if you calculate total-to-date deaths per capita. Given that daily infection and death tallies are on the downswing following first wave peak, I think that a more proximal retrospective is useful because the number of deaths behind us does not predict transnational contagion.

 

There are a few topic headings that contain our attempts to discuss the data. It is a bit of a challenge to decide where to put what.

 

There are a number of ways to calculate mortality trends, and for purposes of our online ‘seminar’ so to speak, it is important to include and define your numerator, denominator, and temporal frame. Also, any absolute number is not a rate. A rate always has a denominator. I think all contributors here are pretty good generally at using “rate” correctly, but we can compare notes more easily if we always state what rate we are referencing.

Edited May 19, 2020 by SirBIllybob

[EZEtoGRU]

You are correct as far as comparing devastation. If you look at recent rolling 7-day average death rate per capita you get a very different picture than if you calculate total-to-date deaths per capita. Given that daily infection and death tallies are on the downswing following first wave peak, I think that a more proximal retrospective is useful because the number of deaths behind us does not predict transnational contagion.

 

There are a few topic headings that contain our attempts to discuss the data. It is a bit of a challenge to decide where to put what.

 

There are a number of ways to calculate mortality trends, and for purposes of our online ‘seminar’ so to speak, it is important to include and define your numerator, denominator, and temporal frame. Also, any absolute number is not a rate. A rate always has a denominator.

I made no indication that I was predicting what the future holds for the US or Canada or transnational contagion going forward. I was responding to an incorrect assertion that the deaths experienced to date were comparable between the two countries once numbers were adjusted for population. They aren't comparable. Canada has approximately half the overall COVID death incidence versus the US...as of yesterday. That is significant. What the future holds for those numbers is anyone's guess.

[SirBillybob]

I was responding to an incorrect assertion that the deaths experienced to date were comparable between the two countries once numbers were adjusted for population.

 

Sorry, I might have missed somebody making that assertion. Myself, I made it clear what context I was using for comparison.

[SirBillybob]

Shifting gears a bit: I think I am or should be envious of Americans’ capacity to acquire a SARS-CoV-2 antibody test. Am I correct in that it is obtainable there, even if you have to pay out of pocket?

 

One candidate in Canada has been approved but the authorities do not want general access. It might be because they wish a structured roll-out to accurately assess general population reactivity. So far, I believe the research initiative is one million tests over two years. That seems too long to wait. I suspect there will be a type of (above-board?) “black market” because the one test has approval and the company may have a free reign to sell it outside of research jurisdiction.

 

Because one’s primary care or other MD might not want to be in the cross-fire it might be necessary to go to an alternate private clinic for a test requisition to take to the lab partnering with the antibody test manufacturer. What a shit show.

Edited May 19, 2020 by SirBIllybob

[cany10011]

Canadian in NYC here. No need to pay out of pocket . I think it is free, but they took my insurance just in case. Just walked into CityMD and 20 minutes later, test is done. Can be asymptomatic. Some companies are requiring proof of testing before returning to the office. No reservations needed. Best to go early morning. Option to do one or both (PCR and antibody). I only did the antibody. I read somewhere that the local CVS drug stores (like Shoppers Drug Mart in Canada) in NJ will have self swab tests by the end of the month.

[SirBillybob]

I also recently called the Quebec hotline for screening because I had a very sore throat like one typically gets prior to a rhinovirus or adenovirus. I had already recovered in March from a common cold. I was rejected for an appointment for nasal/pharyngeal swab. Today I am going for routine swabs for strep and gonorrhea (was sexually active in February) because they are authorized. Act 2 of the shit show. LOL