bigjoey

The “trace” part of “test, trace, isolate” will soon be easier due to Apple and Google. While it sounds almost Big Brother, it makes “trace” possible without an army of people who currently are needed. From what I have read, today a person whose job it is to do the tracing can only handle about two people who test positive for the virus. Even then, much depends on the positive person’s memory of where they have been and who they saw (this assumes the positive person is not too sick so they can talk) and the ability to reach the people who may be in danger. Now technology will provide accurate information in real time at a low cost of not having to employ hundreds of thousands of people to manually trace and instantly notify the parties who need to know they have been exposed. I do not think I need to point out the downsides incurred with the violation of privacy. There are safeguards that could be built into the system to maximize privacy but still fulfill the “trace” function needed to bring this pandemic under control. https://www.idropnews.com/news/apple-rolls-out-covid-19-exposure-notifications-in-ios-13-5-beta/134801/ Please note that I use “test, trace and isolate” rather than “test, trace and treat” as commonly used because there is no “treat” at this point except “supportive therapy” while the body’s own immune system fights the virus.

Not a problem for most Muslims and many Jews???

I have been on the autobahn where there are lanes with no speed limit. Seems you might enjoy driving there?

More mystery. It has now been discovered that the virus arrived in Europe in December rather than January. It was quietly circulating before being discovered. This could account for the surprising number of people who have the antibodies in their blood. The mystery to me is why didn’t it flare up earlier. As contagious as it is, it seems many people had it but either showed no symptoms or might have had mild symptoms that made them think they had a cold or light flu. What changed?

There are some differences that may give Germany its lower numbers. One is Germany still gives the BCG vaccine shots whereas most places like the US stopped long ago. It is uncertain that this could have an effect but I have seen this pop up a number of times. Germany does not have as big a percentage of multigenerational households as Italy as thus seniors are more segregated. Germany is one of the cleanest places I have been. Part of this is that almost all buildings were destroyed in WWII and rebuilt within the last 70 years. Italy, France and other places have buildings that are hundreds of years old and not only harder to clean but often are famous for rats. Every morning on the way to work I would see German housewives out sweeping the sidewalks. I commented once to a German business associate how clean everything was; he smiled and said only Switzerland is cleaner (the Germans seem to hold the Swiss and their numbered bank accounts in high esteem?). The German healthcare system is good but it is a mixed system with private healthcare and insurance in addition to their public system. Germany is a wealthy country and can afford better everything from food, housing, healthcare, etc. Bottom line, wealthier countries will do better than poorer ones. As bad as we think our death totals are, wait until some of the poor countries like Brazil or India feel the full force of Covid19. I think it is still too early to make clear judgements. Unfortunately, we need to wait before taking a look to make firm judgements. Clearly, different countries are experiencing different rates of hospitalization and deaths and infections; eventually, the puzzle pieces will fall into place.

Correct. Here in Kansas, by state law, all residential neighborhood streets are 25 MPH unless otherwise posted. That is pretty much the rule in most states.

Update in figures: https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/495946-pork-processing-plant-in-missouri-confirms-373 Apparently, some did have symptoms

Interesting numbers: https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/04/us/triumph-foods-outbreak-missouri/index.html First, ALL 370 showed no symptoms! That means none knew they were infected. Think about that 17% of the people working in that factory are walking around infecting others with no knowledge of what they are doing. Second, while it shows the importance of testing and tracing, there is no “treat” but only self-quarantine. The “test-trace-treat” mantra is really “test-trace-quarantine.” It does show the importance of continuing to pay the people while at home. Third, it raises the question of why does the virus hit so differently. These workers are mostly young if they are line employees but there could be supervisors and others who are presumably older. But still we know that young people do get sick from the virus and some need hospitalization and some the ICU and some die. But I find this group interesting in that none of them are “sick” (at least yet). Will they ever get sick or is there something in their system that protects them? Finally, how often should an employer test his/her employees. If it is a nursing home, would every shift need to be tested because the risk is so high? Would a meat packing plant need to test every few days? If things open up, before going into a crowded venue, or a cruise or an airplane flight would everyone need testing? These carriers with no symptoms are the wild card in trying to return to normal. In addition, logically there should be a large number of people who were sick with no symptoms but now over the virus and whose body should carry the antibodies to be immune; in two weeks, these 370 people will be added to the growing number of people who should be immune (we do not know for how long). We need to know the number of people who are immune in total; we could be working our way unknowingly toward herd immunity. There is still much more to learn about the strange behavior of this virus.

I sent some masks to a friend in NYC by Priority Mail on April 14th from Kansas City. They arrived on May 1st?. They were in the Post Office supplied envelope marked “Priority Mail” so it was clear how it was supposed to be expedited.

Same here in Kansas City. After trying it a couple of times, the older people moved too slow (some with walkers or on the motor carts).

I said as much because if we are comparing our rates to other countries, those other countries have a similar hit spot that distorts their totals as well. It is helpful to exclude NYC when looking at how the country as a whole is doing. In statistics, in doing an analysis, often outlier data points are often omitted to avoid skewing the result. Sometimes the results are run keeping the outlier data point and omitting it so the reader can make up their mind about that data point inclusion.

From The New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/03/world/asia/coronavirus-spread-where-why.html At the end of the story, they say we just do not yet know for sure and why some places were hit and others spared comes down to “a roll of the dice.”

An exact number will never be know but the greater NYC metro will be higher for a number of reasons. Density and transportation (subway); other areas hit later could take preventive steps and learn from what happened in NYC; state and local leaders aggravated the situation with poor leadership choices; people coming from overseas and bringing the virus with them; etc. Every locality with have different facts and in NYC, they created a perfect storm. Again, NYC distorts the picture for the entire US. Remove NYC and you get a truer picture for the country as a whole. But much could be said for other countries when doing comparisons that they have single areas that skew the results. Better testing will give us better statistics. Unfortunately, until or time is history and future historians look back, we will just not know the full extent of the pandemic and the full results.

Exactly correct. Figures need to be something like deaths per million of population: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/ These figures should only be considered as approximate due to differences in collection, definition, etc. Also, the pandemic did not start everywhere at the same time and it is just hitting some places. In addition, you are correct the the NYC area skews the US figures. Removing the NYC area, the results are different. In fairness, the same could be said of other countries where the removal of a single area can affect the total.

Looking at the 1957 flu pandemic, adjusted to our population today, there was the equivalent of 230,000 dead Americans and the economic and social collapse did not occur. That is history. Yes, every death is a tragedy. I have maintained that. Also, I have maintained that “flatten the curve” is necessary to reduce the deaths from Covid19 and I am in favor of that. There are things that can be done to reduce deaths and I am in favor of that. Right now, there are no medical therapies beyond “supportive therapies.” The Gilead drug Remdesivir is some help in shortening hospital stays but it is not a cure or even close to a cure. Until there are medical therapies, Covid19 will continue to work its way through the population, even given social distancing, masks and other slight behavior changes. Multivariate analysis looks at factors besides deaths and does a balance. Not a hard concept. Different people will come to different conclusions and balances. My example of highway speeds and the balance of lives lost and travel time is an easy to understand example. Where the speed limit is set be it 65 or 60 or 55 or 50 or.....30 miles per hour, an actuary can tell you how many lives will be lost. We balance deaths with time of travel. Extremists could eliminate automobile travel all together and save lives (mass automobiles are just over a century of our history). What balance means in our current case is neither extreme of no restrictions (which is madness) or total restraint which some places like China can do or geographical circumstances can help or culture can help. I accept our current situation as it is. If this was just the beginning of the appearance of Covid 19 and we could have a do over, looking in the rear view mirror we know what could have been done differently. That is no help today. Rather than one extreme or the other, balance is finding a middle ground. Denmark is opening up but people over 65 are still sheltered in place. Schools are opening up but for the lower grades. There is a middle ground. Advocacy for what is the destruction of our economy and people’s mental health, education, etc reminds me of Vietnam: “We had to destroy the village in order to save it.” As I have posted, “flatten the curve” does buy us time to learn more about the virus and reduce deaths in addition to controlling the inflow into the medical system. I have posted about the relationship between vitamin D and the virus and this morning another study is out showing how vitamin D seems to help (and explains part of the racial disparity of the virus). Sunshine (those crazy California beach goers) and vitamin supplements can cut deaths. Expect to see a rush and hoarding of vitamin D supplements (and overdosing of vitamin D which can cause death). It should be clear, I am not in favor of either extreme in this debate despite the accusations leveled at me. For the younger ones here who do not remember the 1957 flu pandemic with the equivalent of 230,000 American dead, I suggest learning that history.

When I downsized three years ago, I had a library of thousands of books. I kept a few but did not have room in my new home for all of them. To my surprise, the University of Missouri at Kansas City took all of the gay themed books and magazines. They were especially interested in those old weekly Publications where there were mostly gay bar ads (and personals). I had some books that were long out of print and they especially liked receiving those. The books that they already had multiple copies were given to be placed in the gay student lounge and in a home shelter for gay youth. I was happy they found new homes. (I had already trashed my video collection but they told me they would have taken those as well?). Bottom line: if anyone is downsizing or getting rid of old porn magazines, books, etc, if your library has a gay collection, contact them.

SK keeps mentioning 1918 and the Spanish Flu and social and economic collapse. May I suggest two better, more recent comparisons: 1- The 1957 Pandemic (H2N2 Virus) 116,000 American dead (Adjusted for today’s population, that Is the equivalent to 230,000 people) 2-The 1968 Pandemic (H3N2Virus) 100,000 Americans dead (Adjusted for today’s population, that Is the equivalent to 165,000 people) Some of us here may remember these. There was nothing like today’s indiscriminate lock downs and the destruction of the economy and personal issues created (destruction of education, abuse, depression for no jobs, etc.). Today, we may be destroying lives for years to come from the after effects of the lock down. Google these more recent pandemics for their history and what was done to combat them and the aftermath. Single variable thinkers can not get past their distorted lens and take a step back for a broader picture. The “flatten the curve” is one way to cut deaths by keeping the outbreak within the capacity of the healthcare system. However, unless a very effective treatment materializes, the virus may be slowed down but will continue to work its way through our population. While it is nice to talk about South Korea and other places, that is not where we are at. Talking about those places is magical thinking. We need to deal with America as it is today in relation to the virus and take into account the “American personality.” Lengthy, repeating posts do not equal truth. “Could’ve, should’ve, would’ve” is a nice parlor game but that water under the bridge does not help us moving forward. The destruction of our economy with the typical Washington solution of throwing trillions at the problem is going to leave us with a very bad hangover when this is done. Note: we have not stopped the equivalent deaths to the 1957 and 1968 pandemics but only delayed them while we destroy our economy, the livelihoods of millions of people and create new issues for years to come. As I posted earlier, a multivariate analysis goes beyond the single variable of lives lost. Like trading highway deaths for faster transit times, we have balanced lives with time. With this pandemic, we need to balance lives with all of the other factors; this is what we did in 1957 and 1968; that history is instructive.

The Abbott test seems to be there. The protocol was changed this week to make it more accurate. https://www.medtechdive.com/news/fda-abbott-coronavirus-test-updated-instructions-accuracy-concerns/576586/

The Abbott test seems to be there. The protocol was changed this week to make it more accurate. https://www.medtechdive.com/news/fda-abbott-coronavirus-test-updated-instructions-accuracy-concerns/576586/

If you are not declaring the PPP money as taxable income, then not being able to take a deduction makes sense. It does not hurt a company. Also, non-profits are getting PPP monies so it makes no difference to them.

The multivariate analysis takes in more than the death rate. Unfortunately, life requires balancing all types of things and making choices. For example, we average just below 40,000 deaths per year from automobile accidents plus tens of thousands of serious injuries (many permanent). If we lowered highway speed limits to 30 miles per hours, you would see a significant drop in deaths and injuries. Our society has decided to make a trade off between deaths and injuries and having a 65 mile per hour speed limit on most highways. (There are other variables to cut deaths like adding air bags or seat belts but I am just showing the speed variable for simplicity). Here society is balancing time of travel with deaths. We accept tens of thousands of dead and injured in a value balance with time saved in travel.

In NY, nursing homes got the virus not only from visitors or staff but from residents coming back from hospitals due to government stupidity: https://nypost.com/2020/04/25/new-york-lacked-common-sense-in-nursing-homes-coronavirus-approach/ Hopefully, that is a lesson learned at the cost of many lives. The problem with not moving to an assisted living or skilled nursing facility is that most often it is not really a matter of choice but necessity. Unless some seniors can move in with a relative who will assume the tasks of care or can afford full time caretakers, a senior facility is the only choice. Until there is a vaccine or herd immunity, senior facilities will have to continually test staff each day (with temperature readings at a minimum). Any visitors will need to be tested with a fast result test like the Abbott test. At least going to jail, there should not be a visitor problem if the visitor is kept behind a glass window?

Great news?: https://apple.news/ApbPFgW2URz6Ku1-xaAYolg I read that to say unless there is a vaccine, we are heading towards herd immunity to end the pandemic. The other thing we need is a medical therapy that is effective in treating those who need hospitalization. That would cut the death rate. In the meantime, no hugs got granny in a senior facility?.

I am not sure what the solution is for “older” people like myself (I am 74) or with other conditions like asthma, high blood pressure, obesity and others in high risk groups targeted by the virus. If I venture out and get the virus and need hospitalization, there is no medical therapy beyond “supportive therapy” which means they just support my body as my own immune system fights the virus with things like a ventilator. Unless the Gilead drug (or something else) works as a medical therapy, I am in a group that is at high risk with really not much to help if I need hospitalization. Even massive test-trace-treat is not valid for the high risk groups because there really is no “treat”. When a medical therapy is available, then OK. A vaccine is still a long way off. How do I board an airplane? Will everyone be given an Abbott 5-minute test before being allowed to board? Will I be sitting next to an asymptotic carrier? How do I go into a movie theater and sit next to someone? Does the person behind the refreshment stand counter hand me a virus with the popcorn? Now Denmark is opening up BUT not for those over 65. Those over 65 are still sheltering in place. What do you suggest for those over 65 or in other high risk groups?

Reports of spousal abuse and child sexual abuse are on the up trend during the quarantine. Mental health problems need abating. Loss of education for young children will be hard to make up. There is starting to be a big toll beyond just the economic one. This requires a difficult balancing of different interests. A multivariate analysis is needed rather than the single-variable analysis of some posters. Society can not be put on hold until a vaccine is developed, if ever.