How's Your Investment Portfolio?

[Kevin Slater]

He may have been right. Henry's first 2 businesses went bankrupt before the present day Ford Motor Company.

 

And he famously, purposefully screwed over his investors.

 

Kevin Slater

[samhexum]

He may have been right. Henry's first 2 businesses went bankrupt before the present day Ford Motor Company.

 

And he famously, purposefully screwed over his investors.

 

Kevin Slater

 

Like with a certain person's casinos?

[Bearofdistinction]

I am:

 

LONG dirty energy stocks, infrastructure stocks, bank stocks, and the US dollar

 

I am primarily invested in Dehydrated Cum Stained Sheets - Condoms = Magnum Fantasy Condoms and Lube . . .

 

SHORT US treasuries

 

The upside has been orgasmic! The holidays will indeed be "happy".

 

Anyone care to share what's been working well for you?

[AndreFuture]

My portfolio would have looked better if I'd bought more Bitcoin...

[+ OliverSaks]

My portfolio would have looked better if I'd bought more Bitcoin...

Amen! I invested some more recently because I’m an adrenaline junkie.

[samhexum]

[samhexum]

My portfolio would have looked better if I'd bought more Bitcoin...

 

Alex could have been a millionaire.

 

In late 2009, when the digital cryptocurrency bitcoin was still in its infancy and a single PC could “mine” a few coins in a day, the self-described technology enthusiast “got into it just for fun”

 

“In the tech community we didn’t think bitcoin would be that big,” said the Australian game developer, who asked not to use his real name because “if my wife knows I’m dead.”

 

“It was just applying our PC hardware to a global network, something novel. In the early days of GPU [graphics processing unit] mining, a single card could mine quite a few coins per day.”

 

As it progressed, the bitcoin program grew to gigabytes in size. “It kept on ballooning so eventually I deleted it [and] backed up the small encrypted wallet file to keep on my USB stick.”

 

That “wallet” contained the unique cryptographic “keys” for thousands of bitcoins Alex had mined.

 

“The thinking was that it’s offline, not on my PC, so in case something bad happened to the PC — [if] it blew up, or [was] hacked — I still had a backup,” he said.

 

Around the end of 2013, when the bitcoin price peaked at just under $980, he suddenly remembered his wallet.

 

“[i plugged] the USB stick back in to try and access the file, but the stick died. It was one of those cheap made-in-China ones,” he said.

 

Today, as the current price smashes through a new milestone of $11,000, 1,000 bitcoins works out to more than $11 million. Alex puts his losses in the “thousands, plural.” “Worst mistake of my life,” he said. “Never back up anything on a cheap Chinese-made disk or USB stick.”

 

Unfortunately, Alex’s story is not unique. As bitcoin mania reaches fever pitch, attention is turning to bitcoin’s missing billions.

 

Of the more than 16.7 million bitcoins in circulation, nearly 4 million could be lost forever, according to new research from digital forensics firm Chainalysis. The research is based on a detailed empirical analysis of the blockchain — the “digital ledger” which records all bitcoin transactions, and which gives the currency its value.

 

The study, reported by Fortune, concluded that between 2.78 million and 3.79 million bitcoins — 17 to 23 percent of existing supply — are lost, amounting to more than $30 billion.

 

Long-term investors who mined coins in the early days — known as “hodlers” — own the vast majority of lost bitcoins, according to the analysis, which also assumed all of the one-million-plus “original” bitcoins belonging to its inventor “Satoshi Nakamoto” are lost forever.

 

One big source of uncertainty is whether out-of-circulation coins in the hodler category are actually lost or just being hoarded.

 

“It’s very easy to lose crypto,” said Martin Davidson, co-founder of Melbourne-based not-for-profitBlockchain Center and business development director at Blockchain Global.

 

“Bitcoin is a predetermined currency issuance system, so there will only ever be 21 million bitcoins created up to the year 2140.”

 

“It started in 2009 with the currency issuance of 50 bitcoins every 10 minutes, and every four years it goes down by half. It went down to 25, now we’re in the third phase where it is 12.5 bitcoins every 10 minutes.”

 

“When bitcoins are produced, they have a private key associated with them. It works using key-pair cryptography — you have a public address and a private key that go together. The public address is what you use to send bitcoins, the private key is what you need to spend them.”

 

“If you lose the private key, because of the mathematics involved and the strength of the cryptographic system, which is what makes it so safe, it’s impossible to ever get it back. What’s commonly happened is people have just deleted the file off their computer — the text document that holds the private key.”

 

While many have made analogies with burning a $100 bill or losing a gold bar off the side of a pirate ship, Davidson agreed that the ease with which bitcoins can be accidentally lost forever at the press of a button — particularly given how valuable they now are — can make people uneasy.

 

“Absolutely, that is one of the largest barriers to adoption,” he said.

 

“What people need to understand is this technology was born out of the cipher-punk movement, using cryptography for people’s individual freedom and privacy for protection against the state.”

 

“It was never designed to be user-friendly, but obviously now people are investing hundreds of billions of dollars into these systems that are still nascent with respect to the usability and design of the applications.”

 

In order to keep their keys safe, some users literally print them out in what’s known as a paper wallet, but Davidson said the best option was a Trezor USB wallet, which retails for about $100.

 

“They’re known as the best in the world, the most secure. They have firmware on the device designed to keep your private keys safe, they can store bitcoin, Ethereum, some other currencies.”

 

Bitcoin’s exponential 1,000 percent rise this year has captured imaginations and led to warnings of a “bubble.” Its current market ccapitalization— the price multiplied by the number of bitcoins in circulation — is now nearly $169 billion, according to Coinmarketcap.

 

On Tuesday, IG Markets chief strategist Chris Weston described the massive influx of retail investors getting into the cryptocurrency as a “mania” fuelled by press headlines and fear of missing out.

 

It came as Mike Novogratz, trader with Fortress Investment Group, told an industry conference investors should brace for “wild crashes.” “This is going to become the biggest bubble of our lifetimes by a long shot,” he was reported as saying in The Post.

 

Meanwhile, legendary investor Jack Bogle, founder of Vanguard and pioneer of “passive investing” championed by the likes of Warren Buffett, also weighed in. “Avoid bitcoin like the plague,” he told a New York conference, according to Bloomberg. “Did I make myself clear?”

 

“Bitcoin has no underlying rate of return. You know bonds have an interest coupon, stocks have earnings and dividends, gold has nothing. There is nothing to support bitcoin except the hope that you will sell it to someone for more than you paid for it.”

 

The 88-year-old said it was “crazy” to invest in the currency. “Bitcoin may well go to $20,000 but that won’t prove I’m wrong,” he said. “When it gets back to $100, we’ll talk.”

 

AMP Capital chief economist Dr Shane Oliver last week warned that “every generation gets sucked in” to an investing craze like bitcoin, which Japan Post Bank chief investment officer Katsunori Sago has described as “worse than the IT bubble” of the late ’90s.

[samhexum]

[continued]

 

Many have defended bitcoin, however, dismissing suggestions of a looming crash.

 

Leigh Travers, chief executive of Perth-based digital currency and blockchain advisory group DigitalX, put the long-term value of bitcoin on par with gold — or over $400,000 — while others are keen to prove its real-world usefulness.

 

Brisbane-based start-up Living Room of Satoshi says Australians are already using bitcoin to pay $1 million worth of bills every week, and a growing number of properties are being offered up for sale in exchange for the currency.

 

On Monday, a Cairns man put his massive 32 hectare property on the market for 100 bitcoin — nearly $1 million — while a $1.9 million Mount Macedon estate this week became the first Victorian property to join the crypto-craze.

 

“Bitcoin is real money,” the vendor said in a written Q&A released by the real estate agent. “In fact, it’s better than most other monies. Bitcoin is deflationary which can be hard to spend because it is constantly rising in value.”

 

“I will accept the [$1.9 million] at the time the property is settled. If the cost of bitcoin continues to rise then I will be getting less bitcoin. Because we already hold bitcoin, nothing could make me happier.”

 

Alex, for his part, said if he “had the spare cash” he would consider getting back into bitcoin, which he believes is a “fantastic gold substitute for long-term storage of wealth” that also has many other useful applications.

 

Earlier this year, he mined “a lot” of Ethereum, the now second most valuable cryptocurrency which has similarly soared in value. “One day, maybe Ethereum might restore what I lost with bitcoin,” he said.

 

“I’ve invested in Ethereum, Ethereum Classic and a few other coins while they were still priced cheap. It’s been good. But some days it’s depressing to think of the thousands of bitcoins I lost because of stupidity.”

[+ Keith30309]

I sold 2/3 of my BTC yesterday morning.

When you start seeing Get Rich Quick stuff on Yahoo it’s time to leave.

[+ Keith30309]

This was inevitable...

 

Source

 

Coinbase Inc. lost a bid to block an Internal Revenue Service investigation into whether some of the company’s customers haven’t reported their cryptocurrency gains.... U.S. Magistrate Judge Jacqueline Scott Corley in San Francisco ruled that the tax agency’s demand for information isn’t overly intrusive....With just 800 to 900 taxpayers reporting bitcoin gains from 2013 through 2015 in a period when more than 14,000 Coinbase users have either bought, sold, sent or received at least $20,000 worth of bitcoin, “many Coinbase users may not be reporting their bitcoin gains,” she wrote. “The IRS has a legitimate interest in investigating these taxpayers.”

Corley ruled that the company must turn over basic identifying information, records of account activity and period statements for accounts with the equivalent of $20,000 in any one transaction type during any single year from 2013 to 2015.

 

 

 

The judge said other data need not be disclosed at this time, including public keys for all accounts, wallets and vaults

EEP!

[jawjateck]

This has been an incredible stock market run. I have been overweight equities for most of the year, but today's gains give me reason to lighten up on my stock portfolio, take some off the table and pocket the profits. If we have a blow off top tomorrow morning, I will sell some more then.

 

Now.....what should I do with the proceeds? Hmmmmmmmm......

[gallahadesquire]

A Public Service Reminder;

The only way stuff on the Net is secure is not to have it on the net. Use a thumb drive or smart card, and remove it when it is not in use. Microsoft, for instance, doesn't sell you an operating system; they just supply it, claim ownership, and update it as wanted. I leave my computer on most of the time, and it randomly appears in a state that wasn't the state it was left in.

 

My anesthesia department wanted to put a "quality assurance" entry on our Electronic Health Record, so that things that went awry could be reported in a timely manner. It would, of necessity, have included personnel involved, as well as the Patient's name, date of birth, medical record number ...

 

The "nail in the coffin" for this was asking,

"Where are the servers?"

"Oh, the information is secure."

"But where are the servers?" (We were in Central Massachusetts.)

"Pittsburgh."

 

I'm with Elon Musk in being paranoid about AI.

 

Yeah .... like nobody could tap into that remotely.

[+ OliverSaks]

This was inevitable...

 

Source

 

Coinbase Inc. lost a bid to block an Internal Revenue Service investigation into whether some of the company’s customers haven’t reported their cryptocurrency gains.... U.S. Magistrate Judge Jacqueline Scott Corley in San Francisco ruled that the tax agency’s demand for information isn’t overly intrusive....With just 800 to 900 taxpayers reporting bitcoin gains from 2013 through 2015 in a period when more than 14,000 Coinbase users have either bought, sold, sent or received at least $20,000 worth of bitcoin, “many Coinbase users may not be reporting their bitcoin gains,” she wrote. “The IRS has a legitimate interest in investigating these taxpayers.”

Corley ruled that the company must turn over basic identifying information, records of account activity and period statements for accounts with the equivalent of $20,000 in any one transaction type during any single year from 2013 to 2015.

 

 

 

The judge said other data need not be disclosed at this time, including public keys for all accounts, wallets and vaults

EEP!

Coinbase is a major player in the US, but this is a worldwide phenomenon. Other exchanges exist elsewhere and more will emerge in the future.

I’m glad to be buying more on this dip.

Additionally, bitcoin isn’t the only crypto worth exploring, and blockchain technology is here to stay. There are more private forms of crypto that already exist.

[+ Keith30309]

Coinbase is a major player in the US, but this is a worldwide phenomenon. Other exchanges exist elsewhere and more will emerge in the future.

I’m glad to be buying more on this dip.

Additionally, bitcoin isn’t the only crypto worth exploring, and blockchain technology is here to stay. There are more private forms of crypto that already exist.

Yep

 

 

I think the big question is the extent to which the Federal Government will go to force 3rd parties to divulge or aid in the discovery of personally identifiable information of a financial nature.

 

The FBI/Apple dust-up over unlocking the San Bernardino mass-shooter’s phone was largely justified on the grounds of national security. I can easily see the same argument being made for large cash transfers which could lead to terrorist financing... which is a slippery slope to money laundering and then tax evasion.

[jawjateck]

Sold some more stock and took some profits on this morn's market action. The post-Thanksgiving rally has been delicious. Enough to reimburse my hobby fees for the past 2 years or so. Yay! All of this amazing fun has been free! :D:rolleyes:

[Kevin Slater]

Oof. I've always wanted to learn about investing, but I don't know where to begin. I wish it was something that had been required learning!

 

 

It's intimidating, I get it. But it's not too hard. The big lesson, to me, is to realize there's no one right answer. Nobody's going to make fun of you for your choices.

 

At your age, an annual contribution to an IRA, whether Roth or traditional, will make a huge difference later on. The younger you start, the longer compound interest has to work in your favor, and now is the best time to establish good savings habits. In general, the tax structure is extremely favorable for those with modest incomes who manage to save even a little. (Despite the current congress's best efforts.)

 

If you do decide to explore a bit, one simple, easy to read book to cover the basics is The Elements of Investing. http://www.amazon.com/The-Elements-Investing-Burton-Malkiel/dp/0470528494

 

Good luck, and prosper.

 

Kevin Slater

[TruthBTold]

I have a pension. I also had an IRA (started very late). When I retired before I thought I might I took my IRA funds and dumped it in the lap of a guy who is the friend of my sister and her husband. It has been making money and I can call him at any time if I want advise about removing funds or anything else. I think the market will continue to rise but eventually what goes up has to go down. I would definitely get advice periodically because my family lost a huge part of their portfolios in 2008. I'm not sure if anything could have been protected against that.

 

P.S. If you are young put in as much as you reasonably can into an account. If the tax cuts are going to go through the younger generation is going to have to pull their own boats, as it were. Forget Medicare, Medicare and Social Security. You are on your own.

[+ WilliamM]

P.S. If you are young put in as much as you reasonably can into an account. If the tax cuts are going to go through the younger generation is going to have to pull their own boats, as it were. Forget Medicare, Medicare and Social Security. You are on your own.

 

Based on one presidential election in which the Democratic Party candidate won the popular vote? Social security was enacted under FDR. Medicare under Lyndon Johnson.

Edited December 6, 2017 by WilliamM

[+ pitman]

Forget Medicare, Medicare and Social Security. You are on your own.

I'm 64 and have been reading of the imminent demise of these programs since I was a teenager.

[+ WilliamM]

 

For @pitman

[TruthBTold]

Based on one presidential election in which the Democratic Party candidate won the popular vote? Social security was enacted under FDR. Medicare under Lyndon Johnson.

 

I guess there are two reasons. First, the agencies and what they accomplish are being decimated. It is going to cost plenty of money to bring things back up to where they were at the beginning of this whole debacle. Second, there is horrific debt. The Republicans are do this so that there is no choice but to cut non-discretionary programs in order to be able to payoff a portion of the debt. There will be no discretionary monies left. So, the Democrats will have the unfortunate and politically disastrous decision to cut Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security. Just wait and see.

[OCClient]

I have been dollar cost averaging money out of the market since last summer and gradually paying down my mortgage. I know that sounds conservative, but I've let my retirement accounts ride the wave upwards so I consider my approach towards risk is balanced. I've thought about rebalancing my retirement money though I'm not really sure which funds would be a safe haven to sweep some of my profit taking into.

[+ WilliamM]

So, the Democrats will have the unfortunate and politically disastrous decision to cut Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security. Just wait and see.

 

The Republicans are responsible for the tax cuts.

[Kevin Slater]

The Republicans are responsible for the tax cuts.

 

Why are we calling them cuts? Taxes will go up for most folk.

 

Kevin Slater

[mike carey]

Why are we calling them cuts? Taxes will go up for most middle class folk.

They are cuts for the people who 'matter'.