Roland Garros 2023

[BSR]

The tournament starts tomorrow.  The biggest story leading up to the 2nd Slam of the year is the absence of Rafael Nadal*, who has played the previous 18 RGs, winning a jaw-dropping 14 titles.  The tournament just won't feel the same without him.

At least the top 3 men's seeds are ready to go.  Alcaraz overcame a couple of injuries early in the year to retake the number 1 ranking.  Novak's elbow has hampered him recently, but he has been practicing in Paris without a sleeve.  Medvedev has overcome his disdain for clay to win the Rome Masters1000.  Thanks to that title, Medvedev was seeded #2 at RG, and whaddya know, Carlos & Novak ended up in the same half of the draw.  As if Alcaraz's draw weren't difficult enough, the draw fates rubbed salt in the wound by putting 2021 RG finalist Tsitsipas in his quarter.

Even though Swiatek comes in as the strong favorite on the women's side, I'm not totally convinced.  She retired with an injury in Rome and has lost a fair number of matches this year while her 2 strongest rivals Rybakina and Sabalenka are coming in with form and confidence.  Rybakina has beaten Swiatek their last 2 matches, not including the retirement in Rome, and Sabalenka has beaten Iga 2 of their last 3.

* "Nadal" means "Christmas" in Rafa's native Catalan (technically he speaks a dialect, Mallorquín)

[+ Charlie]

Thanks for the footnote, which is news to me. I agree with everything else.

[BSR]

To put in cold hard numbers just how much Swiatek is favored, FanDuel (the betting site that sponsors Tennis Channel) put her at -160 to win the women's singles, Rybakina & Sabalenka both at +650.  So if you bet $160 on Swiatek and she hoists the trophy, you would win $100 whereas if you bet $100 on either Elena or Aryna, you would win $650 should your pick win the 🏆.

So if you put money down on Swiatek, you are betting that she avoids injury, doesn't have an off-day, doesn't run into a white-hot opponent, and manages to win 7 matches, potentially facing Rybakina in the semis & Sabalenka in the final.  With her killer forehand and best-in-sport movement, Swiatek is definitely the favorite.  But is she that much of a favorite that it's a smart bet to risk $160 to win just $100?  IMO, heck no!  Rybakina & Sabalenka, on the other hand, risking $100 to win $650 ain't bad.*

* This post is for information and entertainment purposes only.  Place bets at your own risk.  If you think you have a gambling problem, please seek professional help.

[BSR]

Big upset in the 1st round!  As @BuffaloKyle pointed out in another thread, #2 seed Daniil Medvedev suffered a rather embarrassing loss to #172 Thiago Seyboth Wild.  If you're wondering "Who's that?", you are hardly alone.  Seyboth Wild achieved much as a youngster, winning the US Open Boys singles in 2018, then winning an ATP title in 2019 (1 year younger than the legendary Gustavo Kuerten was when he won his first).  But results have been disappointing since, until today.

Medvedev openly hated clay until he started racking up the wins this season.  After he won the Rome Masters1000, when asked if he loves clay now, Medvedev responded, "no, but we have a friendship."  Yikes, maybe he'll go back to hating the slow dirt. 

Also have to give a shout-out to Gael Monfils, who overcame a bad case of cramping to beat Argentine (in other words, born on clay) Sebastian Baez in 5 sets.  #394 Monfils was barely able to walk between points, yet somehow pulled off a win.  The French crowd was going nuts, almost willing him to victory, and then broke out into La Marseillaise post-match.  It was such a beautiful moment that everyone in Chatrier was beaming from ear to ear, except Baez.

[BSR]

In the 2nd biggest upset of the tournament, #79 Daniel Altmaier beat #9 Jannik Sinner in 5 long sets (match length 5h26m!).  Sinner even had 2 match points in the 4th set:  unlucky on the 1st MP when Altmaier's passing shot hit the net cord & skipped over his racket, on the 2nd MP Sinner hit an overhead right into Altmaier's strike zone & Altmaier crushed the passing shot.  More drama in the 5th set before Altmaier finally won it.  I've never seen Sinner so devastated after a loss.

With the upsets over Medvedev & Sinner, the bottom quarter is now wide open.  An unseeded player like Etcheverry or Seyboth Wild might make the semifinals!  I'd give Altmaier a decent chance to beat the perpetually underachieving Grigor Dimitrov, but I'm afraid Altmaier might be too exhausted after today's marathon.

[BSR]

Novak and Carlos beat their R16 opponents by identical scores 6-3 6-2 6-2, but while Novak was good against Varillas (turned pro 10 years ago but played mostly Challengers until this year) Carlos was godlike against Musetti (heckuva good claycourter, beat Novak in Monte Carlo this year and Carlos in Hamburg last year).  Carlos is 4-0 against his QF opponent Tsitsipas, Novak 8-1 winning the last 7 in a row against his QF opponent Khachanov.  Still crossing my fingers for an epic Carlos-Novak semifinal.

A "huh, whaddya know" factoid courtesy of Eurosport:  Even though Novak Djokovic has only 2 Roland Garros titles to Rafa Nadal's 14, Novak has reached more RG quarterfinals than Rafa -- 17 to 16.  Even though Rafa has only 2 Australian Open titles to Novak's 10, Rafa has reached more AO quarterfinals than Novak -- 14 to 13.

 

[BSR]

Yes, we have Alcaraz-Djokovic Part Deux!  Karen Khachanov came out super-aggressive and was the better player for almost 2 sets, but Novak played a perfect 2nd set tiebreak and restored order.  Tsitsipas claimed he was adversely affected because he took a melatonin tablet to take a nap before the match.  Hmm, I wonder what his excuse is for his other 4 losses against Carlos.

Carlos beat Novak in a thrilla in Madrid in their only prior match, squeaking it out in a 3rd set tiebreak.  Carlos has only improved since then, but Novak is a different player in Slams.  This semifinal is like a virtual final because none of the 4 players in the other half of the draw can beat the winner of this clash of the Titans.

[BSR]

What a great Roland Garros!

Novak beat Carlos in the most anticipated match of the year.  The match lived up to its billing for the first 2 sets, but unfortunately Carlos succumbed to cramps early in the 3rd.  

Muchova played Swiatek a lot tougher than I expected.  The Czech was up a break in the 3rd when Swiatek decided to step up the aggression.  3 RG titles in 4 years for the just turned 22 Swiatek.

Novak took the lead in the Slam race by winning his 23rd over now 2-time RG finalist Casper Ruud.  Ruud fought hard and played better than I expected, but Novak in Slams simply operates on another level.

[TonyDown]

Muchova's facial expressions on court reminded me of a young Chris Evert.

  Loved that Evert was there for the women's final.

 

Though Muchova took 1 set, Swiatek was so tough!

Can anyone beat Djokavik at Wimbledon? He seems unbeatable