stevenkesslar

Like I said.  There is data.  If one chooses to drink it.  

The $50,000 average increase in net worth is an average. Meaning, for the vast majority of Americans, net worth increased.  So, no, it is not a small percentage of the population.  It is the vast majority. 
Stock ownership is in fact concentrated in the top 10 % of the population, as you argue.  But my best friend, who is an escort, texted me his stock gain in 2023 - something like 25 % if I recall right.  That's a five figure number, not millions.  But it was meaningful to him.  And he said it was a great Christmas present.
My nephew is not rich.  But once he hits the sell button on SOXL he and his wife can buy a home for cash if they want.  The American Dream lives.  Who knew?  Oh, he'll also pay long term capital gains taxes.  If we could all compromise, like we did in the 90s, that could help pay off the deficit.  Which is a recessionary threat.  And most Americans do see it that way.
Meanwhile, 2 in 3 Americans own homes.  Most with no mortgage or a low fixed rate mortgage.  That is bedrock.  Again, this helps explain why the recession has gone missing.
You are correct that home values can go down.  But so can inflation.  It has.  Meanwhile, real wages have gone up.  You only want to focus on the bad news.
 
 

Actually, no.  There is data.  
Americans' net worth grew 37% after pandemic hit: Fed survey
Real median net worth increased from $141,100 to $192,900 between 2019-2022
Auggie, it's horrible that the price of cereal has gone up.  It's a wonder that people with $50,000 more in net worth aren't starving to death.  How do they even get by?  And worse, a recession is coming!
Again, there is data.  
While its true that the average person with $50,000 more in net worth by 2022 and higher real wages in 2023 can barely afford a bowl of cereal, the fact that we made it past the global inflation and supply chain squeeze might explain why people are feeling better.  Ya think?  The US had lower inflation than most of the rest of the West.  Even though inflation sucks.  And our economy came out the strongest on the planet.  Maybe that helps explain why this recession has gone missing for so long???
It does help explain why my stock nerd nephew's net worth went up hundreds of thousands of dollars........... in the last few days!   He bought SOXL at about $7 a share in Fall 2022 and just kept buying more.  Which speaks to why we might not have a recession.  All that investment in tech and chips is paying off.  The US is the global leader.  I followed my nephew's lead, but own a lot less SOXL.  So my net worth only went up tens of thousands in the last few days.  It's horrible!  A recession must be coming!  
That said, opinions do matter.
😉

Consumer sentiment surges while inflation outlook dips, University of Michigan survey shows
 
 

Boom!
US economy grew at a shocking pace in the fourth quarter | CNN Business
WWW.CNN.COM The US economy remained shockingly robust in the fourth quarter to close out a remarkably strong 2023 as consumers and businesses continued to spend, crushing expectations... ...and the crowd goes wild!!

The beginning was very reminiscent of premise of  Evelyn Waugh's, Brideshead Revisited, so I expected the *middle class chap meets eccentric aristocratic family* to move in the same direction. In Brideshead there was an innocent homoeroticism about romance between two friends, one homosexual and one (mostly) heterosexual.  The relationship in Saltburn rode the homoerotic story line for a bit, but in the end, Oliver's major attraction was more about the aristocratic lifestyle, than the person.
For the record, I would have totally sucked the cum out of a bathtub filled by Jacob Elordi. 😉

 
 

Like I said.  There is data.  If one chooses to drink it.  

The $50,000 average increase in net worth is an average. Meaning, for the vast majority of Americans, net worth increased.  So, no, it is not a small percentage of the population.  It is the vast majority. 
Stock ownership is in fact concentrated in the top 10 % of the population, as you argue.  But my best friend, who is an escort, texted me his stock gain in 2023 - something like 25 % if I recall right.  That's a five figure number, not millions.  But it was meaningful to him.  And he said it was a great Christmas present.
My nephew is not rich.  But once he hits the sell button on SOXL he and his wife can buy a home for cash if they want.  The American Dream lives.  Who knew?  Oh, he'll also pay long term capital gains taxes.  If we could all compromise, like we did in the 90s, that could help pay off the deficit.  Which is a recessionary threat.  And most Americans do see it that way.
Meanwhile, 2 in 3 Americans own homes.  Most with no mortgage or a low fixed rate mortgage.  That is bedrock.  Again, this helps explain why the recession has gone missing.
You are correct that home values can go down.  But so can inflation.  It has.  Meanwhile, real wages have gone up.  You only want to focus on the bad news.
 
 

Actually, no.  There is data.  
Americans' net worth grew 37% after pandemic hit: Fed survey
Real median net worth increased from $141,100 to $192,900 between 2019-2022
Auggie, it's horrible that the price of cereal has gone up.  It's a wonder that people with $50,000 more in net worth aren't starving to death.  How do they even get by?  And worse, a recession is coming!
Again, there is data.  
While its true that the average person with $50,000 more in net worth by 2022 and higher real wages in 2023 can barely afford a bowl of cereal, the fact that we made it past the global inflation and supply chain squeeze might explain why people are feeling better.  Ya think?  The US had lower inflation than most of the rest of the West.  Even though inflation sucks.  And our economy came out the strongest on the planet.  Maybe that helps explain why this recession has gone missing for so long???
It does help explain why my stock nerd nephew's net worth went up hundreds of thousands of dollars........... in the last few days!   He bought SOXL at about $7 a share in Fall 2022 and just kept buying more.  Which speaks to why we might not have a recession.  All that investment in tech and chips is paying off.  The US is the global leader.  I followed my nephew's lead, but own a lot less SOXL.  So my net worth only went up tens of thousands in the last few days.  It's horrible!  A recession must be coming!  
That said, opinions do matter.
😉

After a brief break to catch something to eat, we now return you to your regularly scheduled recession.
Consumer sentiment surges while inflation outlook dips, University of Michigan survey show
On a two-month basis, sentiment showed its largest increase since 1991, said Joanne Hsu, the survey’s director. Consumer sentiment has improved amid a drop in gasoline prices and solid stock market gains.  
This is horrible.  Doesn't anybody realize a recession is coming?
 

One interesting thing that DOES NOT happen in a whole slew of recent queer-ish cinema, most anchored in the past, is that the boy DOES NOT get the boy.  At least, not legally.
Saltburn is unclear about everything, and has no real point.  Including about its homoeroticism.  But you can make an argument that the unrequited lust and obsession a guy feels towards a guy is part of the problem.  Who can't relate to wanting to be fucked by Jacob Elordi?  Or at least lick up his cum from a bath tub?  🤔
We followed the same path with Fellow Travelers, Maestro, and My Policeman.  Among others.   It is mostly a grim picture of the emotional, social, and marital consequences of a guy having to get the girl.  Because he can't have the boy he really wanted.
If this is in fact a trend, it underscores a very important point.  Something very big did happen.  We won same sex marriage.  Some of this may be that we can now look back at how many lives were ruined by discrimination and an intolerance for queer love.

One interesting thing that DOES NOT happen in a whole slew of recent queer-ish cinema, most anchored in the past, is that the boy DOES NOT get the boy.  At least, not legally.
Saltburn is unclear about everything, and has no real point.  Including about its homoeroticism.  But you can make an argument that the unrequited lust and obsession a guy feels towards a guy is part of the problem.  Who can't relate to wanting to be fucked by Jacob Elordi?  Or at least lick up his cum from a bath tub?  🤔
We followed the same path with Fellow Travelers, Maestro, and My Policeman.  Among others.   It is mostly a grim picture of the emotional, social, and marital consequences of a guy having to get the girl.  Because he can't have the boy he really wanted.
If this is in fact a trend, it underscores a very important point.  Something very big did happen.  We won same sex marriage.  Some of this may be that we can now look back at how many lives were ruined by discrimination and an intolerance for queer love.

Set design and locations were awesome, well-pointed out . I won't fault those things.  Music was often spot-on too, particularly the MGMT song at the right place in the movie.  Still, the writing, the horrible narrative, ugh.  But, very very pretty, which is not nothing.
 
This is a mashup, not the scene w/MGMT, and it may contain spoilers.  And, also, given that it's unofficial, I suspect youtube will remove this video.  But, for now, enjoy:
 

I'm in the minority.
I will watch movies like My Policeman and Benediction again but Saltburn, no.  Big disappointment.
That said Jacob Elordi will host SNL tonight.

Overlong and poorly written.  C-
Afterward, I imdb'd it and saw it's from the same director and writer who did the poorly written Promising Young Woman, so that tracks.
For a much better Talented Mr. Ripley themed movie, see AKA:
 
 

Thanks for the advice.  I'm ahead of the game on my retirement contributiins, having contributed 30%-50% of my gross salary every year in my 20s, and over 25% of my gross salary every year in my 30s, all to Roth's.  Most of my debt is low interest 2%-3% mortgage and temporary credit card offers, so I had been just piling my salary into Roth's instead of paying down debt.  Now that I have some debt at over 8% interest, I want to aggressively pay off that 8%+ debt before I go back to funding my Roth's again.

Like I said.  There is data.  If one chooses to drink it.  

The $50,000 average increase in net worth is an average. Meaning, for the vast majority of Americans, net worth increased.  So, no, it is not a small percentage of the population.  It is the vast majority. 
Stock ownership is in fact concentrated in the top 10 % of the population, as you argue.  But my best friend, who is an escort, texted me his stock gain in 2023 - something like 25 % if I recall right.  That's a five figure number, not millions.  But it was meaningful to him.  And he said it was a great Christmas present.
My nephew is not rich.  But once he hits the sell button on SOXL he and his wife can buy a home for cash if they want.  The American Dream lives.  Who knew?  Oh, he'll also pay long term capital gains taxes.  If we could all compromise, like we did in the 90s, that could help pay off the deficit.  Which is a recessionary threat.  And most Americans do see it that way.
Meanwhile, 2 in 3 Americans own homes.  Most with no mortgage or a low fixed rate mortgage.  That is bedrock.  Again, this helps explain why the recession has gone missing.
You are correct that home values can go down.  But so can inflation.  It has.  Meanwhile, real wages have gone up.  You only want to focus on the bad news.
 
 

Actually, no.  There is data.  
Americans' net worth grew 37% after pandemic hit: Fed survey
Real median net worth increased from $141,100 to $192,900 between 2019-2022
Auggie, it's horrible that the price of cereal has gone up.  It's a wonder that people with $50,000 more in net worth aren't starving to death.  How do they even get by?  And worse, a recession is coming!
Again, there is data.  
While its true that the average person with $50,000 more in net worth by 2022 and higher real wages in 2023 can barely afford a bowl of cereal, the fact that we made it past the global inflation and supply chain squeeze might explain why people are feeling better.  Ya think?  The US had lower inflation than most of the rest of the West.  Even though inflation sucks.  And our economy came out the strongest on the planet.  Maybe that helps explain why this recession has gone missing for so long???
It does help explain why my stock nerd nephew's net worth went up hundreds of thousands of dollars........... in the last few days!   He bought SOXL at about $7 a share in Fall 2022 and just kept buying more.  Which speaks to why we might not have a recession.  All that investment in tech and chips is paying off.  The US is the global leader.  I followed my nephew's lead, but own a lot less SOXL.  So my net worth only went up tens of thousands in the last few days.  It's horrible!  A recession must be coming!  
That said, opinions do matter.
😉

Actually, no.  There is data.  
Americans' net worth grew 37% after pandemic hit: Fed survey
Real median net worth increased from $141,100 to $192,900 between 2019-2022
Auggie, it's horrible that the price of cereal has gone up.  It's a wonder that people with $50,000 more in net worth aren't starving to death.  How do they even get by?  And worse, a recession is coming!
Again, there is data.  
While its true that the average person with $50,000 more in net worth by 2022 and higher real wages in 2023 can barely afford a bowl of cereal, the fact that we made it past the global inflation and supply chain squeeze might explain why people are feeling better.  Ya think?  The US had lower inflation than most of the rest of the West.  Even though inflation sucks.  And our economy came out the strongest on the planet.  Maybe that helps explain why this recession has gone missing for so long???
It does help explain why my stock nerd nephew's net worth went up hundreds of thousands of dollars........... in the last few days!   He bought SOXL at about $7 a share in Fall 2022 and just kept buying more.  Which speaks to why we might not have a recession.  All that investment in tech and chips is paying off.  The US is the global leader.  I followed my nephew's lead, but own a lot less SOXL.  So my net worth only went up tens of thousands in the last few days.  It's horrible!  A recession must be coming!  
That said, opinions do matter.
😉

Actually, no.  There is data.  
Americans' net worth grew 37% after pandemic hit: Fed survey
Real median net worth increased from $141,100 to $192,900 between 2019-2022
Auggie, it's horrible that the price of cereal has gone up.  It's a wonder that people with $50,000 more in net worth aren't starving to death.  How do they even get by?  And worse, a recession is coming!
Again, there is data.  
While its true that the average person with $50,000 more in net worth by 2022 and higher real wages in 2023 can barely afford a bowl of cereal, the fact that we made it past the global inflation and supply chain squeeze might explain why people are feeling better.  Ya think?  The US had lower inflation than most of the rest of the West.  Even though inflation sucks.  And our economy came out the strongest on the planet.  Maybe that helps explain why this recession has gone missing for so long???
It does help explain why my stock nerd nephew's net worth went up hundreds of thousands of dollars........... in the last few days!   He bought SOXL at about $7 a share in Fall 2022 and just kept buying more.  Which speaks to why we might not have a recession.  All that investment in tech and chips is paying off.  The US is the global leader.  I followed my nephew's lead, but own a lot less SOXL.  So my net worth only went up tens of thousands in the last few days.  It's horrible!  A recession must be coming!  
That said, opinions do matter.
😉

After a brief break to catch something to eat, we now return you to your regularly scheduled recession.
Consumer sentiment surges while inflation outlook dips, University of Michigan survey show
On a two-month basis, sentiment showed its largest increase since 1991, said Joanne Hsu, the survey’s director. Consumer sentiment has improved amid a drop in gasoline prices and solid stock market gains.  
This is horrible.  Doesn't anybody realize a recession is coming?
 

Moderator's note:  let's give this restaurant tally a break.

The Absolute Worst Predictions of 2023
PREDICTED BY: A WHOLE LOT OF PEOPLE …
CNBC, Oct. 10, 2022: “JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon warns U.S. likely to tip into recession in 6 to 9 months” Bloomberg, Oct. 17, 2022: “Forecast for US Recession Within Year Hits 100% in Blow to Biden” The Economist, Nov. 18, 2022: “Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023” Bloomberg, Dec. 6, 2022: “Wall Street Chorus Grows Louder Warning That 2023 Will Be Ugly” Wall Street Journal, Jan. 2, 2023: “Big Banks Predict Recession, Fed Pivot in 2023” Fox Business, Feb. 6, 2023: “Bank of America ‘still forecasting’ 2023 recession” POLITICO, April 4, 2023: “Jamie Dimon warns of new economic storms ahead” CNBC on April 12, 2023: “Fed expects banking crisis to cause a recession this year, minutes show”

?
https://ny.eater.com/2023/12/7/23983007/nyc-restaurant-openings-december-2023 lists 73 opening in December
NYC Restaurant Closings, December 2023 - Eater NY lists 23 closing in December.
Am I misreading?

NYC New Restaurant Openings, December 2023 - Eater NY
https://ny.eater.com/2023/12/7/23983007/nyc-restaurant-openings-december-2023
NYC’s Most Anticipated Restaurant Openings of 2024 - Eater NY
https://ny.eater.com/2024/1/10/24023017/nycs-anticipated-restaurant-openings-2024
 
 

new Netflix-produced 2:10-long movie just out yesterday on Netflix in the US about the oft-told story of the Uruguayan rugby team stranded in the Andes after a 1972 plane crash.......a Spanish production with Uruguayan and Argentine actors and a reported budget of over 65 million euros........some scenes were filmed at the actual crash site.......has already won several 2023 film festival awards with many more pending this year.....most of the actual survivors watched a showing of it during pre-premiere screenings......fantastic score, effects, cinematography, even make-up (gore, prosthetics).......dubbed English with English subtitles.........exceedingly emotional at the end (have the Kleenex ready!).....rated R for violent action scenes, gore, and brief graphic nudity (the survivors being cleaned up in the showers after rescue)......
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Society_of_the_Snow
https://time.com/6551709/society-of-the-snow-true-story-netflix/
 
 
 

Let's get back to facts and the real world.  The December jobs report came in today and blew past expectations indicating that the US economy remains strong and resilient. there is no recession in sight.   Facts actually do matter.
The US economy added 216,000 jobs in December | CNN Business
WWW.CNN.COM The US economy added 216,000 jobs in December, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Friday, blowing past expectations and capping off a year of...