BgMstr4u

Not exactly a happy love song, but in this season of dust and ashes, this really gets my juices flowing:

Here's the same, with English subtitles: the full scene, without the video clips from the series:

And for the beauty inside awkward people everywhere....

Not a song exactly, but sooooo beautiful!

See's website says they aren't even selling online.

https://www.sees.com/

There have been rumors for some time about closing See's stores. It hadn't happened, at least not where I live, before the current unpleasantness, but I would assume that if it did, it would be a real estate/employment decision. I do know that the last time I went in and bought something, the usually jovial lady behind the counter was pretty snippy. Maybe it was because I already knew what I wanted - nut-sprinkled, chocolate-covered toffee. Which I can eat all of in one sitting. I shouldn't, but I can't help myself. Nor do I especially want to change my ways.

When I was growing up, in the 50's and 60's, See's was not around our neck of the woods. Russell Stover's was. One of my fondest memories of my mother was her fast asleep on the couch watching Gunsmoke, a half-eaten box of RS chocolate covered cherries on the floor beside her.

Maybe it's genetic.

A voice of wisdom, compassion, experience and sweet resolve in the midst of this crisis.

So, I just looked @ official Covid-19 numbers, & the worldwide death count so far is 67,999. May sound like a lot, but it's actually almost nothing when we consider the fact that world population is over 7 billion & close to 150,000 people die each & every day on average.

 

A national shutdown won't do much at this point other than keep people prisoner in their own homes. Herd immunity is the answer.

As I understand it, the point of the shut-down, shelter-in-place, don't-go-out orders is to slow the spread of the virus. It won't stop it, but it will spread out the need to respond when it does come. And (to be grim about it) add some time to some people's lives. But life has to go on. Food needs to be raised, processed, distributed and bought and sold. So does everyting else life requires. More and more economic activity will need to gear up, and that means more people likely to be infected. There just is not any way around that. Both have to happen - economic activity to keep goods and services flowing, and distancing/avoidance for those most at risk. It is not either/or but a balance of necessities which do not line up neatly with each other. The balance is about maintaining a severe shut-down as long as it is truly effective, and then revving things up again. The discernment needed for those decisions puts leaders in a truly terrible position. There may not be any obviously right answers, but rather, responses are required that are made at the time with at best partial information and possibly conflicting expert advice.

Until there is a vaccine, we will all have to go on living with this in one way or another. If a vaccine is developed, then gradually most if not all people will be vaccinated. A small number will likely respond negatively to the vaccination. I think the model we are looking at here is that of a disease that that can't be eliminated but will have to be managed. It is likely going to be part of the human scene from now on.

if you're looking for a smaller, more liberal environment, consider Tucson (no, I am not employed by the Chamber of Commerce!) I have found it to be a warm and welcoming community.

I have been looking at Tucson as a relocation possibility. I love the desert, love Mexican culture and food, love the Spanish language. The prices of condos are very reasonable. Two questions.

Co-op apartments and townhouses seem to be a big thing. Super low prices, a bit retro in design but that can be nice. What’s the take on co-ops in general?

What is gay life like there? The U. Of AZ has its main campus, so I’m guessing there’s the usual array of academic gayness. With a large retirement contingent (I assume) and a large student population, is there much mixing? Is it anything like Palm Springs?

Florida is now # 21 in the nation in terms of deaths per million, and # 19 in terms of cases per million.

At this point (6:15 pm, 4/4/2020), according to RCP's chart of state statistics, Florida is now 10th in terms of total deaths, 9th (up from 19th) in terms of deaths per million. That's how quickly this is changing.

For that matter, you could also call it a "hospital" ethic. Part of what I'm grateful about relating to @purplekow's posts is not only the sacrifices people like him are making, but also the sense of detail about how disciplined an operation this requires. Every detail about the mask you wear, or the way you clean up after work, could be a matter of life and death - to you, and to those you most love. We're not used to that.

I think this really gets to the heart of the matter. I'm not sure whether martial law is the answer. But somehow the message has to get out. I have friends in upstate New York who are still welcoming employees and friends, though on a somewhat reduced level. They think the guidelines there are strong suggestions, and they think they are taking enough precaustions, and that anyway human empathy and so forth are as important as separation. I don't know whether the guidelines in California are more dire and clear and direct, but I worry for them and others like them. I am praying not to hear in a week or two or three that some one or several of them has contracted the virus. Certainly here in California people are getting pretty disciplined about the details.

As someone once said, Details make the difference. Or perhaps more aptly, The devil is in the details.

Thank for both of these responses, @stevenkesslar and @LivingnLA . Both helpful.

We're not flying completely blind on this.

 

 

That's from a study of the impact of interventions in the 1918 pandemic. I'm not 100 % sure how good the data actually is. Part of the horror of this is that there are stories about people dying at home, bodies left in alleys, mass graves. So nobody may know for sure.

 

That said, that line above sums up the consensus: The 1918 flu pandemic depressed the economy. Public health interventions did not. The cities that were best prepared had the fewest deaths, and are generally believed to have bounced back the quickest. If those numbers are right, that was true by a factor of as much as 2 to 1. In Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, about 1,000 in every 100,000 died. In other cities, it was under 500 per 100,000.

 

The story in every documentary about 1918 is that Philadelphia went ahead with a huge World War I parade, despite public health warnings. The business boosters insisted that we needed to conduct business as usual. As a result, they ended up with what historians describe as a ghost town. People didn't want to come outside. Children starved in homes because their parents died and nobody wanted to come near them. So the modern day equivalent to that is probably New Orleans and Mardi Gras.

 

Other histories suggest that in some communities people banded more closely together, and helped each other out. I think one of the lessons is that if people are given false messages or false hope, trust just collapses. I keep posting those Bill Gates videos because I view them as the antidote to panic. By being sober and realistic, they are somehow comforting.

 

Coronavirus (COVID-19) U.S. Deaths

 

I think that's the best chart to assess the impact of different states' policies. And since this is in The Lounge, I'm going to avoid using the names of Governors and keep this apolitical. Other than to say that the biggest part of preparedness is community preparedness. If you are one of those people who have to go to work everyday, even in a pandemic, it makes a huge difference whether there are 100 other people sick in your city, or 100,000 people sick. Obviously the reason workers feel the subway in Seoul or Tokyo is safe enough is they don't have 100,000 sick people.

 

If you click on "deaths per million" on that chart above, it will rank all 50 states from highest death rate to lowest. I think that's probably the most accurate measure of how deep the virus has penetrated. Probably ZERO states have an accurate picture of testing. And they won't, until we have widespread random testing. But the death rates don't lie. If Dr. Fauci is right, you can take the number dead and multiply it by 100 (based on a 1 % death rate). And that will tell you how many infected people there were maybe two or three weeks ago. As Fauci keeps saying, "death lags".

 

So in California there are 285 deaths. That would suggest maybe 28,500 cases. Only about 12,500 people are diagnosed. So that would suggest at least half the positive people in California are not diagnosed, for whatever reason. But the ones who get severely ill or die will be in hospitals, and they will be counted.

 

To me, California and Ohio are two standouts. They have death rates of 7 to 8 people per million. And they both were ahead of the curve in taking measures to slow the spread of the virus. I don't know much about Ohio, other than they cancelled a primary, which in retrospect was a very, very wise move. In California, 962 of the cases are in LA County. So a county that is about one quarter of the state population has about 42 % of all cases. Within the state, LA was relatively more behind the curve on shutdown - literally by a matter of days. But what we have learned is that a few days or a week of inaction can make a massive difference in how many people get sick and die. When you adjust for population, I think California and Ohio are examples to look at for what is being done that works. Adjusting for population, they have 95 % fewer deaths than New York and 90 % fewer deaths than Louisiana.

 

Washington did a good job of getting ahead of the curve, I think. The first cases of COVID-19, back in January, suggest that this could have played out as having a West Coast epicenter. My guess, which may be wrong, is that the CDC was relatively effective in testing and tracing and suppressing the spread - up to a point. Where they failed is in testing people who had not been in China. And the asymptomatics probabaly sealed the deal on community spread. Dr. Fauci himself clearly did not see that coming in January. To his credit, he admits when he got it wrong, despite his vast knowledge. So at one point, Washington was the hot spot. Now they have a death rate of 38 per million. That's less than half of what it is in Louisiana. So I think Washington had the misfortune of being our Wuhan, where the virus first hit. But they were one of the first states to take extreme lock down measures once they got a clear picture of how this was spreading. Certainly, Seattle is not having the hospital crisis that New York City is. I think that speaks to the wisdom and effectiveness of aggressive intervention.

 

Texas is the interesting one. Of any big state, they have by far the lowest death rate - 3.6 residents out over 1 million. Some of that could be geography, since they may have less travel from "hot spots" than New York City did. But there's obviously a lot of travel through Texas. My best guess is that in cities like Houston and Dallas, the local governments did follow the more aggressive lock down strategies relatively quickly. At least at the front end, urban centers are the first ones hit. That may not be true two months from now. Less dense states will be hit just as hard, in relative terms, I think. If they don't prepare. But right now Dallas and Houston have about 2200 cases, which is about one third of the statewide total. Those two counties house about 1 in 4 Texas citizens. So they are a little over-represented in the state count, which you'd expect for two large urban centers. That said, I think the actions of their local governments helped control the spread - certainly compared to Louisiana, where there are 6000 cases in two counties around New Orleans alone. Houston is worried that travel between New Orleans and Houston will help spread the virus to Houston.

 

Every time Dr. Birx opens her mouth I am more impressed with her. She has already said she is going to prioritize rural areas for these quick test kits. I hope they make Texas a big priority. If you go to the John Hopkins map, there are counties all across Texas with one or two or a handful of cases. So those are all ideal candidates where we could figure out how we get two weeks ahead of the virus, rather than two weeks behind. That is essentially what all those East Asian countries have done. Texas would be an ideal lab for that, I think. It embodies all the crosswinds in American culture. There are no doubt people in rural areas who think this all may be an overreaction. But they don't want to die, or end up in a hospital that is 100 miles away.

 

Birx's language is almost flawless. When she speaks, she does so in a way that anticipates all the objections. But then she points out, soberly and factually, that 5 goes to 50 goes to 500 in no time. That is math everybody gets. Dr. Birx will go down is history as an American hero and life saver.

That’s all very interesting, @stevenkesslar . But still no word about Michigan. Any thoughts, anyone? From a sometimes loyal Spartan, who still knows the not-very racy alternative words to the MSU fight song.

I'm checking in at RealClearPolitics (which lists its sources as: "WHO, CDC, ECDC, NHC, DXY, JHU, RCP | Population: World Bank, CIA, U.S. Census") several times a day. New York and New Jersey are consistently at the top of the chart for both deaths and for confirmed cases. Louisiana (Mardi Gras??) is right up there, as is California (biggest population), and Washington (first hit). There have been extensive discussions here about why this might be for New York and New Jersey, and the others are not difficult to figure out. But Michigan is consistently right in that mix too. Michigan?

Does anyone have a clue why Michigan and not, say, Ohio, Illinois or Texas? Was there some early exposure? Michigan really has only one large city, Detroit, and it has been emptying out for years.

Once again, Thank you so much, @purplekow . You are giving the rest of us a window into the reality of this virus, and it shows not only you but others as well doing good, solid, self-giving, self-sacrificing, heroic work. For which we are all grateful. And grateful to have a window into your world, which may also be ours at some point in all of this.

At the moment I’m watching Episodes. Again. I don’t know why. Maybe it’s all the corny sex jokes. But I am starting to wonder ... Is there something to the running gag about how big Matt LeBlanc’s dick is? Anybody here with reliable information?

Thank you, PK, for your beautiful, moving, and very human post. God bless you and all you work with. I am sure God is blessing so many others through you.

I lost my first friend to the virus today. When I worked in NYC in the early 2000s I was his mentor while he was doing his professional training. He did very well, was greatly loved in his work. He was in Queens. I will miss him. I take comfort in knowing you, and countless others like you, are helping so many now in need. Thank you.

IMHO the best cd recording of Pirates is the 1968 D’Oyly Carte version, directed by Isidore Godfrey. The sublime duet “Poor wand’ring one” between Frederic and Mabel may be as close to G&S heaven as you can get.

The best G&S film IMHO is the 1999 Jim Broadbent / Allan Corduner Topsy Turvy - a bio pic, more about Mikado than the others, but a great film. The film and video renditions of Pirates have all disappointed me.

I see that costco is now not going to accept returns for things people are hording like TP, paper towels and disinfecting wipes and sprays.

Perhaps if the hoarders have too much, they could find some elderly shut-ins or families with not enough and give them to people who really need them.

On Netflix, watched The Valhalla Murders. I took Old Icelandic (which is quite close to modern Icelandic) in grad school, so I was initially drawn in by the opportunity to see some scenery - the geographic kind - and was not disappointed by the story either. But I confess I had to look up Lögreglan, which often appears in written form. When I did some of the vocabulary started coming back. The dubbing into English is pretty good.

I am now watching Babylon Berlin. Really drawn into the story. The song and dance number in Season 1, Episode 2, of “Zu Asche, zu Staub” blew me away. Watching and singing along with youtube videos of it has become something of an obsession. Will I be dancing along with it next? And I have fallen in love with Volker Bruch, who plays the male lead Gereon Rath. Or maybe with the character in Bruch’s body.

Next in line is probably Elite.

I'm just waiting for the idiots in Sacramento to close down all restaurants and airports. Nearly all of our state legislators are in a state of total irrational panic and are being led brilliantly by our dump shit governor.

I agree, @Epigonos. Trying to get a clear picture of what is going on is difficult out here. One hears rumors and tries to check them out and it becomes evident how fragmented the media are, and how almost uselessly formulaic and repetitive the local tv news outlets are. The LA Times' coverage is focused, oddly enough, on LA, which leaves a lot of the rest of us out on the edge.

If anyone out here knows of semi-definitive independent sources, let me know. I'm thinking about Big Sur Kate's blog during the slides that closed Highway 1. She was terrific - always on top of it. https://bigsurkate.blog/

It would be nice to have an independent but unimpeachable news/information source for Southern California.

Where is that store?

Certainly not the local CVS or Smart and Final! Even the Whole Foods is more like grey-haired man buns and legs that should not have shorts showing them off... Even in sunny Southern California! Even if they do drive a Mercedes, Jaguar, Tesla, or a perfectly restored 1956 Thunderbird. I'll even cut my hair and wear long pants if I can have the T-Bird.

The models in JC’s videos actually don’t do much of anything except strip, smile and cooperate. Still, many of them are captivating. But you’re right - they’re not focused on JC but on themselves. He facilitates their self-absorbtion, an hommage to their beauty.

I don’t know why I missed the Jake Cruise videos until now. Noticed them but passed them by. Just finished watching JC with Doug Acre.

https://www.xvideos.com/video12573411/doug_acre_serviced

Pushes so many of my buttons. CMNM: JC is doing the servicing, but he is very much in charge. Older experienced man with a young, well built lad. The initial scenes evoke an auction - stripping, touching, stroking, teasing to get just a bit of a reaction, then long, leisurely enjoyment of the lad at the older man’s pace. Not sure if Doug was enjoying it, but that’s not the point. JC is, and it is about him using the lad as a beautiful animal, almost an object. Very erotic from that point of view.

I went to Smart and Final yesterday. The bleach section was almost sold out.

Just out of curiosity, does anyone know if bleach is one of the products we’ve outsourced to China? It would be instructive to have a list of products that could have diminished availability b/c of Chinese production.

The thing about disaster planning - stocking up in particular - is that it is a no-lose proposition. If an emergency, well, emerges, you’re better off. If not, you have what you need for a little longer.

He might be raising contributions for his next session at the massage parlor.

Oops! I meant the tattoo parlor!