Kevin Slater

I've been using ID.me for years to log into my IRS account.  Works well.
Kevin Slater

Work with his often.  Nicest guy there is.
Kevin Slater

Rule #1: Don't gamble with other people's money.
Kevin Slater

Rule #1: Don't gamble with other people's money.
Kevin Slater

Rule #1: Don't gamble with other people's money.
Kevin Slater

Rule #1: Don't gamble with other people's money.
Kevin Slater

Rule #1: Don't gamble with other people's money.
Kevin Slater

Sell the positions and pay back the loan.  You did not invest: you speculated. You knew you’d have to sell within a few days so it was a gamble.  
 
You may be able to deduct some of your losses from your taxes. 

That strikes me as the one upside: you basically are renting, but with a rent cap.  After a while, that would be huge.
Kevin Slater

I just cleaned up and hid a bunch of posts.  Back on topic please.  And at the end of the day, different strokes for different folks. Someone does not have to be your cup of tea to still be the world to someone else. 

There are staggered releases of insider lockup periods the next few months.  I will create conditions for the stock to fall more as the initial bent up demand fades.  The pile on when the stock goes up will also be triggered as it falls.  Expect the stock to have a LOT of wild swings.  The faint of heart will lose confidence and bail.  Unlike insiders who were able to buy the stock for a fraction of the current market price, those who paid real money will not like seeing their investments sink.  A couple of downward shifts and they will bail on the space ship.  The PE ratio is way out of whack.  There is a business model there, but for it to be among the most valuable companies on the planet, I do see that happening until they can somehow figure out how we can live on other planets and the need to move things across huge spans of space to go back and forth.  Will it happen?  Sure, some time in the future.  Will I be alive to see it?  Probably not.  

Me personally, and like others up thread have mentioned, i will not be partaking in SpaceX any time soon (outside of the automatic exposure from indexes). SpaceX IPO is just so early inside investors can cash out because Elon's lost so much value for them after having them help him buy Twitter and xAI. Both of which are highly unprofitable money furnaces and are now worth a fraction of what he had investors help him buy them for. They both also have been bought by and rolled into SpaceX (Elon just passing money around his own accounts basically) and that's what the IPO is actually selling to retail investors under the guise of finally being able to get in on SpaceX.
xAI in particular are actively throwing billions of dollars into a furnace https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/technology/articles/xai-burned-6-4b-last-222608682.html with plans to spend more and no actual path to profitability in the foreseeable future (OpenAI who also are racing toward a rushed IPO via the same indexes bent rules has the same problem). SpaceX itself, in the past Elon had publicly said he wanted to keep SpaceX private specifically to not have to deal with the pressures and influences of running the company publicly like he does with Tesla. And he could afford to keep SpaceX private if he wanted to.
He's only changed up on this now because he's doing this to bail out Twitter/xAI investors. I do think SpaceX itself has some potential as a long term business, but it's carrying the ball and chain of Twitter and xAI in the short term. And before you see any benefit of how SpaceX as a rocket company will perform, you have to carry the Twitter/xAI ball and chain first. I think retail investors will be left holding the bag when Twitter/xAI investors cash out. Then that potential crash in SpaceX stock price would be the actual preferred buy in point for people who think SpaceX will do well in the future.
Everything about this IPO screams crypto style rug pull to me, personally. You can spot all the tells from that kind of thing in this from a mile away.

So yesterday, S&P announced SpaceX won't be ramrodded into the index; it'll need to be four quarter GAAP profitable and meet other hurdles prior to inclusion.  So indexes that follow the S&P 500 specifically won't be picking up any SpaceX and time soon.  
Various other etfs and funds have tweeted the rules to include SpaceX much sooner and at various points in time.  Within the first few weeks, it will be around .5% of QQQ, FTEC and ONEQ for example, and ~.1% of VTI and FNILX (Fidelity's no-fee 500 large cap fund).
I'm thrilled not to be forced into participating in a meaningful way as I am skeptical of SpaceX's governance.
Kevin Slater

Five Guys in Chicago
 
You lookin to do the ol' In & Out with Five Guys?
 

 
Kevin Slater

Good news in my book.  Call me old fashioned if you will…but profits and cashflows are still key metrics in my way of thinking. 

So yesterday, S&P announced SpaceX won't be ramrodded into the index; it'll need to be four quarter GAAP profitable and meet other hurdles prior to inclusion.  So indexes that follow the S&P 500 specifically won't be picking up any SpaceX and time soon.  
Various other etfs and funds have tweeted the rules to include SpaceX much sooner and at various points in time.  Within the first few weeks, it will be around .5% of QQQ, FTEC and ONEQ for example, and ~.1% of VTI and FNILX (Fidelity's no-fee 500 large cap fund).
I'm thrilled not to be forced into participating in a meaningful way as I am skeptical of SpaceX's governance.
Kevin Slater

So yesterday, S&P announced SpaceX won't be ramrodded into the index; it'll need to be four quarter GAAP profitable and meet other hurdles prior to inclusion.  So indexes that follow the S&P 500 specifically won't be picking up any SpaceX and time soon.  
Various other etfs and funds have tweeted the rules to include SpaceX much sooner and at various points in time.  Within the first few weeks, it will be around .5% of QQQ, FTEC and ONEQ for example, and ~.1% of VTI and FNILX (Fidelity's no-fee 500 large cap fund).
I'm thrilled not to be forced into participating in a meaningful way as I am skeptical of SpaceX's governance.
Kevin Slater

I was browsing Memorial Day sales and the price of a comparable laptop that I bought last June has doubled in price due to AI driving up the price of memory chips and tariffs.

US stock have significantly underperformed international stocks ytd.
Kevin Slater

US stock have significantly underperformed international stocks ytd.
Kevin Slater

US stock have significantly underperformed international stocks ytd.
Kevin Slater

Yeah, the market has been surprisingly resilient in the face of so much craziness.

Example of a previous IPO and how long it took to back to its original value:

I hate that they're considering altering the rules for S&P inclusion to get SpaceX in earlier than it otherwise would be.
Kevin Slater

I hate that they're considering altering the rules for S&P inclusion to get SpaceX in earlier than it otherwise would be.
Kevin Slater