Kevin Slater

There are staggered releases of insider lockup periods the next few months.  I will create conditions for the stock to fall more as the initial bent up demand fades.  The pile on when the stock goes up will also be triggered as it falls.  Expect the stock to have a LOT of wild swings.  The faint of heart will lose confidence and bail.  Unlike insiders who were able to buy the stock for a fraction of the current market price, those who paid real money will not like seeing their investments sink.  A couple of downward shifts and they will bail on the space ship.  The PE ratio is way out of whack.  There is a business model there, but for it to be among the most valuable companies on the planet, I do see that happening until they can somehow figure out how we can live on other planets and the need to move things across huge spans of space to go back and forth.  Will it happen?  Sure, some time in the future.  Will I be alive to see it?  Probably not.  

Me personally, and like others up thread have mentioned, i will not be partaking in SpaceX any time soon (outside of the automatic exposure from indexes). SpaceX IPO is just so early inside investors can cash out because Elon's lost so much value for them after having them help him buy Twitter and xAI. Both of which are highly unprofitable money furnaces and are now worth a fraction of what he had investors help him buy them for. They both also have been bought by and rolled into SpaceX (Elon just passing money around his own accounts basically) and that's what the IPO is actually selling to retail investors under the guise of finally being able to get in on SpaceX.
xAI in particular are actively throwing billions of dollars into a furnace https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/technology/articles/xai-burned-6-4b-last-222608682.html with plans to spend more and no actual path to profitability in the foreseeable future (OpenAI who also are racing toward a rushed IPO via the same indexes bent rules has the same problem). SpaceX itself, in the past Elon had publicly said he wanted to keep SpaceX private specifically to not have to deal with the pressures and influences of running the company publicly like he does with Tesla. And he could afford to keep SpaceX private if he wanted to.
He's only changed up on this now because he's doing this to bail out Twitter/xAI investors. I do think SpaceX itself has some potential as a long term business, but it's carrying the ball and chain of Twitter and xAI in the short term. And before you see any benefit of how SpaceX as a rocket company will perform, you have to carry the Twitter/xAI ball and chain first. I think retail investors will be left holding the bag when Twitter/xAI investors cash out. Then that potential crash in SpaceX stock price would be the actual preferred buy in point for people who think SpaceX will do well in the future.
Everything about this IPO screams crypto style rug pull to me, personally. You can spot all the tells from that kind of thing in this from a mile away.

So yesterday, S&P announced SpaceX won't be ramrodded into the index; it'll need to be four quarter GAAP profitable and meet other hurdles prior to inclusion.  So indexes that follow the S&P 500 specifically won't be picking up any SpaceX and time soon.  
Various other etfs and funds have tweeted the rules to include SpaceX much sooner and at various points in time.  Within the first few weeks, it will be around .5% of QQQ, FTEC and ONEQ for example, and ~.1% of VTI and FNILX (Fidelity's no-fee 500 large cap fund).
I'm thrilled not to be forced into participating in a meaningful way as I am skeptical of SpaceX's governance.
Kevin Slater

Five Guys in Chicago
 
You lookin to do the ol' In & Out with Five Guys?
 

 
Kevin Slater

Good news in my book.  Call me old fashioned if you will…but profits and cashflows are still key metrics in my way of thinking. 

So yesterday, S&P announced SpaceX won't be ramrodded into the index; it'll need to be four quarter GAAP profitable and meet other hurdles prior to inclusion.  So indexes that follow the S&P 500 specifically won't be picking up any SpaceX and time soon.  
Various other etfs and funds have tweeted the rules to include SpaceX much sooner and at various points in time.  Within the first few weeks, it will be around .5% of QQQ, FTEC and ONEQ for example, and ~.1% of VTI and FNILX (Fidelity's no-fee 500 large cap fund).
I'm thrilled not to be forced into participating in a meaningful way as I am skeptical of SpaceX's governance.
Kevin Slater

So yesterday, S&P announced SpaceX won't be ramrodded into the index; it'll need to be four quarter GAAP profitable and meet other hurdles prior to inclusion.  So indexes that follow the S&P 500 specifically won't be picking up any SpaceX and time soon.  
Various other etfs and funds have tweeted the rules to include SpaceX much sooner and at various points in time.  Within the first few weeks, it will be around .5% of QQQ, FTEC and ONEQ for example, and ~.1% of VTI and FNILX (Fidelity's no-fee 500 large cap fund).
I'm thrilled not to be forced into participating in a meaningful way as I am skeptical of SpaceX's governance.
Kevin Slater

So yesterday, S&P announced SpaceX won't be ramrodded into the index; it'll need to be four quarter GAAP profitable and meet other hurdles prior to inclusion.  So indexes that follow the S&P 500 specifically won't be picking up any SpaceX and time soon.  
Various other etfs and funds have tweeted the rules to include SpaceX much sooner and at various points in time.  Within the first few weeks, it will be around .5% of QQQ, FTEC and ONEQ for example, and ~.1% of VTI and FNILX (Fidelity's no-fee 500 large cap fund).
I'm thrilled not to be forced into participating in a meaningful way as I am skeptical of SpaceX's governance.
Kevin Slater

I was browsing Memorial Day sales and the price of a comparable laptop that I bought last June has doubled in price due to AI driving up the price of memory chips and tariffs.

US stock have significantly underperformed international stocks ytd.
Kevin Slater

US stock have significantly underperformed international stocks ytd.
Kevin Slater

US stock have significantly underperformed international stocks ytd.
Kevin Slater

Yeah, the market has been surprisingly resilient in the face of so much craziness.

Example of a previous IPO and how long it took to back to its original value:

I hate that they're considering altering the rules for S&P inclusion to get SpaceX in earlier than it otherwise would be.
Kevin Slater

I hate that they're considering altering the rules for S&P inclusion to get SpaceX in earlier than it otherwise would be.
Kevin Slater

I hate that they're considering altering the rules for S&P inclusion to get SpaceX in earlier than it otherwise would be.
Kevin Slater

In general, it's not a great idea to take part in IPOs.  Wait at least until the lock-up period is over (when all the insiders are allowed to sell their shares, which often tanks the stock).  
Kevin Slater

My accountant sent this info to consider. 
The first major advantage is that you completely avoid paying capital gains tax because you are donating the stock itself rather than selling it, so the gain is never realized. A second benefit is that you still receive a charitable deduction based on the full fair market value of the stock, not what you originally paid, which creates a powerful double effect of avoiding tax while also reducing taxable income. A third advantage is that if you use a donor-advised fund, you can take the tax deduction in the current year while deciding which charities to support over time, giving you flexibility in how and when you give.
 
On the downside, the most important drawback is that once you donate the stock, the money is permanently gone and no longer part of your financial assets, which removes any future flexibility. Another issue is that you may be giving up a potentially better tax outcome for your heirs, since holding the stock until death would allow them to receive a step-up in basis and avoid capital gains tax anyway. The final drawback is that this strategy does not improve your cash flow at all, since it reduces taxes but does not generate any actual liquidity, which can be a problem if you still need access to cash for expenses or obligations.

New entry for that table:
Attack on Iran. Trading days to trough: 21. % change to trough: -7.8%. Trading days back to even: 15.
(I hope the short sellers took their profits on March 30.)

More precisely, whatever your donation, the first .5% of your AGI is non-deductible.
Kevin Slater

More precisely, whatever your donation, the first .5% of your AGI is non-deductible.
Kevin Slater

More precisely, whatever your donation, the first .5% of your AGI is non-deductible.
Kevin Slater

More precisely, whatever your donation, the first .5% of your AGI is non-deductible.
Kevin Slater

There's a threshold potentially, you might need to cross 0.5% of your income before deductions kick in, I think new for 2026, depending on how you file.  Just in case good to check since, if applicable, donations below the floor don't have the same tax benefit.