mike carey

While it makes sense to plan for Broadway Nov 2021, it may pay you to do some research on whether you can roll the expiry date of any of the credits over and plan accordingly. Being stuck here, I'm looking at places in Australia that I might not otherwise have considered, and will look at other countries as travel to them is opened for us. The only airline credit I have has been extended to 31 Dec 22 by the airline so there's no urgency on that front, but I have a bit of a travel itch that I need to scratch.

For the first time in a while, I've seen some new thoughts on the manner of spread of the virus. The gist of it is that we have not properly understood the nature of how it infects new cases. The article is pay-walled on the Atlantic, but the site allows a limited number of free articles each month. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/ For me the key conclusions are that the models of transmission that epidemiologists used from the outset in the pandemic were based on the way that influenza behaves, and that it is becoming apparent that SARS-CoV-2 works differently. Influenza spreads predictably, with a consistent chain of infection from one case to the next, with the virus being equally likely to spread from each case. This means that the R number is a valid representation of the likely speed of spread of an outbreak. SARS-CoV-2 spreads differently. Most of the infections arise from a very small proportion of cases, in something that is analogous to the 80/20 rule. It spreads in clusters from super-spreader events: some infected people will infect a large number of others while most won't pass the virus on at all. The R number doesn't provide a useful indication of the spread of the virus. This goes some way to explaining why the spread of the pandemic has not been predictable. Countries and regions with similar conditions had different patterns of infection. The measures that have been taken to stop its spread have generally worked but the instances where the virus has evaded them seem to have been few but each caused a large number of new cases rather than many with each causing a few (as would happen with influenza). In a sense it there was an element of chance in an individual being the source of further spread. In an extreme illustration, as few regions in Italy had most of the cases and deaths, while other regions with similar cultural and demographic conditions and similar health services had few. This is significant for how it affects contact tracing. With influenza it makes sense for health authorities to track and trace people a patient has been in contact with while they were infectious because most cases will be transmitted to other people. With most cases of SARS-CoV-2 not being passed on to others there is less value in tracking forward to each patient's contacts, most won't have it. What is needed is backwards tracing. When you know that cases occur in clusters, there's more value in finding where each infection came from as that person will most likely have infected a number of other people at the same event. This seems highly significant. It provides some insights into the sorts of circumstances where clusters are likely to arise—crowded noisy indoor events, choirs, closely packed bars, Rose Garden events—and to prioritise them for restrictions, with less emphasis in settings that are less likely to be the source of infection spread.

As of 6 March!

Haha, yes, it can easily be missed (as I did when I posted it). I've read that English speakers can read texts by only noting the first and last letters of words. The experiment is usually done by scrambling the internal letters, but I've noticed that I've read completely different words than the ones written, based on the first and last letters!

That last word you quoted from me should have been scrubbed!

I've seen them for a while, but there's a rush of them lately. They seem to be there just to post links to other sites, so I see them as spam advertising rather than bots. They typically have a black and white torso photo and nothing much else. RM takes the profiles down pretty quickly, so the visit still shows up when you log on but the profile is no longer there for you to check out. I'm about 50/50 catching them before they are scrubbed.

Indeed, and I see it wasn't the person I expected it to be, that person in fact backed you up! Yes, my bad, I apologise for misunderstanding what you were referring to in the second para. I had, however, read the entire thread as it was posted, Unfortunately, I didn't remember every detail about who said what, and I didn't go back and read it again to look for details of what you and others had said on this matter that might have provided context for your comment today.

Oh, I was unaware that there was a challenge to make some particular point in one's choice of an avatar or that using a photo of a boat in some way failed that (or some other) test. I'll read the TOS more closely.

I suspect that for some that is a happy conjunction of the two occurrences.

Yes, I know, and you've said as much before. It was never going to be easy, even more so with the current difficulties. I didn't raise it again here to re-ask the question but because guys like you needed to be mentioned in this thread.

In related news:

I'm hesitant to engage in a three way but the idea is attractive. For me, the other two being ready to play would be important. Two random players sounds like a recipe for disaster. Of course, if it involved meeting a hot couple like @TylerandAce I'd be in there in a NY minute.

I can relate to this. It's been around for a while, but I decided it needed posting here, even if that's again.

If you hold the shift key down while you hit Enter it works as a carriage return inside the one message instead of sending the message. The same hack works in WhatsApp.

Haha, very good!

*Takes mental note, 'How not to contact Mr Nicholas'.*

Thanks for canvassing this important issue, @Oliver, no one is unaffected by the pandemic and for the most part people's reactions have been understandable. I exclude those who have sought to deny it, who claim to have greater insight than the medical experts and who seem to regard the economy as being more important than our lives. I too am of a certain age, although not as certain as some other forum members. I am lucky to live in a country that has largely been spared the harsher effects of the pandemic, and the restrictions I've had to endure have not been particularly burdensome. I have managed the last six months reasonably well and coped with the spending most of my time inside my house. The internet has made it easier, as it brings so many things into my bubble, this forum not the least of them, as has the 'serious' network of our public broadcaster. There are things I cannot do, but I didn't feel constrained by it. That said, I am aware that I won't live forever, so the time I have to do things isn't unlimited. Even now, as I think about travel, i don't feel resentment at those or any other limitations, although I have the beginnings of a degree of frustration. I can travel to most of the country but not overseas, and I am looking at places around Australia with new eyes. Last night in a current affairs piece about the impact of the pandemic restriction on various communities around the country they covered a flash hotel that was at 10 to 20% occupancy and rather than just think 'That's interesting' I immediately thought about a short break there. (No, I haven't booked. Yet.) The possibility of travel to New Zealand seems to be tantalisingly close, and I'll be on a plane there pretty soon after it becomes possible. I recognise that if our restrictions were harsher I'd be more likely to feel oppressed by them and perhaps resentful, so I'm in no position to criticise others who are. Are they being selfish? Maybe, but to me wishing restrictions away is natural, it's not really being selfish unless you convert your frustrations into flouting the restrictions. For now, I'm content to count my blessings, plan on taking up opportunities as they arise and hoping for there to be more of them. And even to dare to hope that Palm Springs 2021 will be a thing, and one that I can travel for!

I second this, a class act indeed.

Oh, sorry, I misunderstood, By moving south I thought they meant PV of somewhere like that. Valparaiso in April could have been nice, although perhaps less pool-friendly than PS. It would be well into autumn, after all. But they meant that South!

'Cute' might not be the first word that comes to mind in relation to professional rugby players, but I'm sure some might attract my attention.

My travelling companions and I (and all of us are forum members) missed Christchurch this year, but it is a delightful city, my only reservation about living there would be that I would have to become a fan of the Canterbury Crusaders rugby team.

I have read Jeremy's blog. Unrelated to that, I would hire him in a heartbeat.

I watched a number of episodes when it was on the ABC here, and enjoyed it. I really must rewatch the whole series. I love this new world where Australian TV series have a wider audience, I've seen posters here comment on other shows like Miss Fischer's mysteries.

I met Mike briefly at the 2019 Palm Springs event, and was impressed but didn't take the opportunity to hire him. The lesson I take is, don't think 'maybe next year', as next year may not present an opportunity.

Thanks for this elucidation of my comment. I wasn't aware that this FT graph was available to illustrate what I was trying to say. Although it does represent total cases not those per million or per 100k. Regardless of that, it illustrates how a linear scale can downplay numbers in some contexts.