Lotus-eater

Military conflicts are associated with increased market volatility, not major bear markets. Only the Arab oil embargo was associated with a long downturn that took more than 6 months to recover from: S&P 500 responses to select military interventions and hostilities since World War II Event Start date* Trading days to trough % change to trough Trading days back to even N. Korea invades S. Korea June 25, 1950 15 -12.9% 56 U.S. spy plane shot down in USSR May 7, 1960 2 -0.6% 4 Bay of Pigs invasion April 15, 1961 6 -3.0% 14 Cuban Missile Crisis Oct. 16, 1962 6 -6.3% 13 Gulf of Tonkin Incident (Vietnam) Aug. 2, 1964 4 -2.2% 29 Lead-up to Six-Day War (June 6) May 14, 1967 15 -5.6% 20 Tet Offensive (Vietnam) Jan. 29, 1968 25 -6.0% 46 Cambodian Campaign (Vietnam) May 1, 1970 18 -14.9% 86 Yom Kippur War, Arab oil embargo Oct. 6, 1973 42 -16.1% 6 years** Soviet-Afghan War Dec. 24, 1979 7 -2.3% 10 Intervention in Grenada Oct. 25, 1983 11 -2.8% 15 Lead-up to intervention in Panama Dec. 15, 1989 2 -2.2% 8 Iraq invades Kuwait, oilfields seized Aug. 2, 1990 50 -15.9% 131 Lead-up to Gulf War (Desert Storm) Jan. 1, 1991 6 -5.7% 13 Intervention in Yugoslavia (Balkans) March 24, 1999 3 -4.1% 11 U.S. spy plane captured in China April 1, 2001 3 -4.9% 7 War in Afghanistan Oct. 7, 2001 1 -0.8% 3 Lead-up to Iraq War Feb. 5, 2003 24 -5.6% 28 Russia intervention in Ukraine Feb. 11, 2022* 17 -7.4% 27 12-Day War (Israel/U.S. and Iran) June 12, 2025 5 -1.3% 7 Average of all 20 events — 13 -6.0% 28

Individuals may behave irrationally, but the market is made up of millions of people, many of whom are much smarter and better informed than you are, not to mention unemotional computer algorithms, which is why virtually no single individual has been able to beat the market over the long-term. Even Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has only matched the return of S&P 500 since 2000.

Lump-sum investing outperforms in that study due to the time-in-the-market effect since the investment is made on Day 1 of the investment year. Had the lump-sum investment been made on Day 365 of the year, it would have underperformed dollar-cost averaging. For withdrawals, the reverse logic applies. Dollar-cost averaging beats withdrawing all of your yearly expenses on Day 1 of the year because your money stays in the market longer.

"Realistic" according to your definition. The idea that the U.S. stock market--made up of millions of people from around the world buying and selling--is driven by a bunch of irrational Pollyannas is silly.

https://robbreport.com/shelter/new-construction/inside-80-clarkson-west-village-1237698572/

I see no good reason to like someone based on identity politics.

Another quaint little house in the Palm Springs area (Rancho Mirage) is available: https://robbreport.com/shelter/auctions/chateau-dumont-auction-rancho-mirage-1237693146/

Can't blame Rassie for wanting to jump on Ruben a lot.

https://fortune.com/2026/03/05/gen-z-women-new-face-of-unemployment-low-grades-and-bad-health-are-to-blame-new-research-warns/ Millions of workers are bracing for AI layoffs and restructurings. But a growing slice of Gen Z isn’t even making it onto the corporate ladder in the first place—and increasingly, they’re young women. PwC’s new Women in Work Index, which digs into Labour Force Survey data on 16‑ to 24‑year‑olds between 2020 and 2024, shows that around 1 million young people in the U.K. are now classed as NEET (not in education, employment, or training). Female unemployment has been drifting downward since the mid‑2010s (aside from the COVID spike), but that progress is now reversing. In 2024, the jobless rate for young women jumped from 9.5% to 11.8%—the fastest annual rise since PwC’s index began. And in the latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures, released last month, the overall NEET rate ticked up to 12.8%, driven almost entirely by women: While the number of young men locked out of work actually went down quarter on quarter, 13,000 new women found themselves out of the job market. While young men still slightly outnumber young women overall, the numbers are starting to skew female. In other words: The gap is closing—and fast. A sudden shift in unemployment: Why are young women being left behind? Just two years ago, young men dominated the NEET data. When Fortune first covered the trend in 2024, one in five men under the age of 25 was unemployed—and not actively looking for work, either—despite having just graduated. Experts at the time said the key reason for the phenomenon was that women were more flexible in accepting job offers that didn’t perfectly align with their career goals post-pandemic. Essentially, male Gen Z graduates were holding out for dream jobs that never materialized because the number of white-collar roles shrank. Instead of taking up a part-time job or an entry-level position outside their field, they disengaged. But new data suggests that for young women today, unemployment is less about choice. PwC pointed to two key drivers behind the sudden surge in female NEETs: poor grades and deteriorating health. One in four young women who left high school with low grades ends up a NEET, compared with one in five young men. When low grades collide with a health condition, the damage compounds brutally: A young woman with both is almost four times as likely to be a NEET as the average young woman—48% versus 12.2%. The reason it’s causing unemployment now, all of a sudden, comes down to the sudden shift in career choices for young people who aren’t bookworms, says Lewis Maleh, CEO of global recruitment agency Bentley Lewis. “When young men leave school without strong grades, there are well-established routes waiting, like construction, trades, logistics, which are all hiring right now and don’t require further education,” Maleh explains. “Young women with the same low education go towards retail, care, or hospitality. These sectors have been shrinking and offer limited progression.” ...This is only being compounded further by the current AI race. The increased focus on tech roles is further limiting the pool of jobs available to women, who are less likely to have studied STEM subjects. Another recruiter, Zara Amiry, echoes that the rate of female unemployment is a direct reflection of the roles available right now. “Certain roles tend to have more male applicants,” she adds.

If you need a place to stay in Palm Springs for the upcoming gathering and prefer traditional architecture (Monterey Colonial Revival) with some Hollywood history, you can buy Donna Reed's old house: https://robbreport.com/shelter/celebrity-homes/gallery/donna-reed-former-palm-springs-home-photos-1237674483/

Did AI or a human make that spelling error ("Retun On Investment")? Students who are nonchalantly cheating their way through college using AI will further degrade the value of their degree in the job market.