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GregM

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Epigonos Grand Master

Epigonos

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The only REALLY important think to know about speculative investments is knowing when the hell to take ones profit and run. I have a friend who bought 100 shares of bit at $100 a share and just sold it all at $16,000 a share. I have other friends who were into speculative investments and waited too long and ended up losing everything. They got caught up in seeing the value go up and when it started down they were convinced it would go up again.

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GregM Mentor

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The only REALLY important think to know about speculative investments is knowing when the hell to take ones profit and run. I have a friend who bought 100 shares of bit at $100 a share and just sold it all at $16,000 a share. I have other friends who were into speculative investments and waited too long and ended up losing everything. They got caught up in seeing the value go up and when it started down they were convinced it would go up again.

 

Kind of like the stock market.

 

Hugs,

Greg

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Keith30309 Grand Master

+ Keith30309

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The only REALLY important think to know about speculative investments is knowing when the hell to take ones profit and run. I have a friend who bought 100 shares of bit at $100 a share and just sold it all at $16,000 a share. I have other friends who were into speculative investments and waited too long and ended up losing everything. They got caught up in seeing the value go up and when it started down they were convinced it would go up again.

 

It’s a commonly-cited example of wildly speculative investing but it’s worth a reread. The principle is the same as BTC except accelerated to light-speed with instant trades and everyone carrying a smart device around in their pocket.

 

In 1593 tulips were brought from Turkey and introduced to the Dutch. The novelty of the new flower made it widely sought after and therefore fairly pricey. After a time, the tulips contracted a non-fatal virus known as mosaic, which didn't kill the tulip population but altered them causing "flames" of color to appear upon the petals. The color patterns came in a wide variety, increasing the rarity of an already unique flower. Thus, tulips, which were already selling at a premium, began to rise in price according to how their virus alterations were valued, or desired. Everyone began to deal in bulbs, essentially speculating on the tulip market, which was believed to have no limits.

 

The true bulb buyers (the garden centers of the past) began to fill up inventories for the growing season, depleting the supply further and increasing
and
. Soon, prices were rising so fast and high that people were trading their land, life savings, and anything else they could liquidate to get more tulip bulbs. Many Dutch persisted in believing they would sell their hoard to hapless and unenlightened foreigners, thereby reaping enormous profits. Somehow, the originally overpriced tulips enjoyed a twenty-fold increase in value - in one month!

 

Needless to say, the prices were not an accurate reflection of the value of a tulip bulb. As it happens in many speculative bubbles, some prudent people decided to sell and crystallize their profits. A domino effect of progressively lower and lower prices took place as everyone tried to sell while not many were buying. The price began to dive, causing people to panic and sell regardless of losses.

 

Dealers refused to honor contracts and people began to realize they traded their homes for a piece of greenery; panic and pandemonium were prevalent throughout the land.
by offering to honor contracts at 10% of the face value, but then the market plunged even lower, making such restitution impossible. No one emerged unscathed from the crash. Even the people who had locked in their profit by getting out early suffered under the following depression.

 

The effects of the tulip craze left the Dutch very hesitant about speculative investments for quite some time. Investors now can know that it is better to stop and smell the flowers than to stake your future upon one

Reference: https://www.investopedia.com/features/crashes/crashes2.asp

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quoththeraven Grand Master

+ quoththeraven

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Kind of like the stock market.

 

Hugs,

Greg

Not if you have a long enough investment horizon. Over time, the stock market outperforms all other asset classes. Not being invested in the stock market knocks a lot off rate of return.

 

That still requires diversification within asset classes (foreign vs. domestic, developed vs. developing, capitalization, growth vs. income) so not all of your investments are dropping in value at once as well as diversification across asset classes. But lifetime investments not needed in the near term can be up to 75-80% invested in equities.

 

Also market timing is mostly a matter of luck.

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Keith30309 Grand Master

+ Keith30309

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Not if you have a long enough investment horizon. Over time, the stock market outperforms all other asset classes. Not being invested in the stock market knocks a lot off rate of return.

 

That still requires diversification within asset classes (foreign vs. domestic, developed vs. developing, capitalization, growth vs. income) so not all of your investments are dropping in value at once as well as diversification across asset classes. But lifetime investments not needed in the near term can be up to 75-80% invested in equities.

 

Also market timing is mostly a matter of luck.

 

What she said.

 

Attempt market timing at your own peril.

Don't buy anything you don't understand.

Think in terms of the triangle - as you age the wider the base of your triangle should be. Lottery tickets and BTC's are at the tip of my triangle... they're fun like cotton candy.

 

investment_pyramid.gif

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mike carey Grand Master

mike carey

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Also, it's dangerous to buy in the 'irrational exuberance' phase of something that could be a bubble, and that's where bitcoin is now. If you hold them, by all means keep some, but sell say half and take the profits rather than risk losing it all if the bubble bursts. If you're happy to lose the lot, by all means keep 'em all.

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GregM Mentor

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I'm not putting all my eggs in the crypto basket and I hope no one else is. I have money in the market as well. It's about diversifying my money and getting the biggest returns I can, even if I hold something for a short while. I'm still young, I can afford to take risks.

 

Hugs,

Greg

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bashful Grand Master

+ bashful

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Those of you that have it, enjoy the wave. I agree with those that say it's luck, and its also other circumstances you cannot control.

 

A co-worker paid for her nice, not extravagant, small wedding with the profits from selling her beanie-babies during the height of it's craze.

 

Early in my career (early 80s), there was a proposed merger of my company where purchase for our stock was reported to be 10x's the price per share at the time of the announcement. Share prices skyrocketed. Several co-workers had been in the employee stock purchase plan since they hired on 30-40 years before, and made a killing selling it beforehand for a price somewhat less than the proposed price. One held out for the proposed price, but the merger never happened. That person didn't lose money, but I think regretted losing the opportunity.

 

Having witnessed family and friends lose all equity in their homes in Detroit years ago, and sell for a fraction of what was paid 20 years before, real estate is never a sure thing.

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rustyrex Proficient

rustyrex

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I was thinking about this very thing...should I or not buy a part of a bitcoin. Then I youtubed a video of a guy trying to actually use the damn thing. What's the point of having the currency if it's a hassle to spend and hardly anyone uses it for day to day. It's like apple pay. Nice to have and show off at the store (look I can buy stuff with my phone!) but hardly necessary. If it catches on....and that's a big IF, then maybe it will be worth the investment. But like the example I used ...a lot of IPhone users have the ability to use apple pay and not many actually do, and it uses actual dollars!

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GregM Mentor

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I was thinking about this very thing...should I or not buy a part of a bitcoin. Then I youtubed a video of a guy trying to actually use the damn thing. What's the point of having the currency if it's a hassle to spend and hardly anyone uses it for day to day. It's like apple pay. Nice to have and show off at the store (look I can buy stuff with my phone!) but hardly necessary. If it catches on....and that's a big IF, then maybe it will be worth the investment. But like the example I used ...a lot of IPhone users have the ability to use apple pay and not many actually do, and it uses actual dollars!

 

I have Samsung Pay and it's accepted every where. I dont have to dig for my card and I get points that I can use to get Visa gift cards. Apple is crap. There's a number of merchants that use Bitcoin. But maybe it's not for you. Just like Apple is not for me.

 

Hugs,

Greg

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GregM Mentor

+ GregM

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I was thinking about this very thing...should I or not buy a part of a bitcoin. Then I youtubed a video of a guy trying to actually use the damn thing. What's the point of having the currency if it's a hassle to spend and hardly anyone uses it for day to day. It's like apple pay. Nice to have and show off at the store (look I can buy stuff with my phone!) but hardly necessary. If it catches on....and that's a big IF, then maybe it will be worth the investment. But like the example I used ...a lot of IPhone users have the ability to use apple pay and not many actually do, and it uses actual dollars!

 

https://99bitcoins.com/who-accepts-bitcoins-payment-companies-stores-take-bitcoins/

 

What was that about no one taking Bitcoin? I did your research for you. Your welcome.

 

Hugs,

Greg

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Lance_Navarro Proficient

+ Lance_Navarro

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Grrrrr. Bitcoin cash trading on Coinbase halted an hour after it launched. Up 80% today... insider trading !!! :mad::mad::mad:

Yeah, I just saw yesterday that they added bitcoin cash to my coinbase account, but had no idea it would soar like it did. What Litecoin has done in the last 2 months is pretty impressive too.

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GregM Mentor

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BCH will drop whenever the hell trading reopens - there’s a shitton of pending sells. I’d bet around $1500.... I’m going to try to grab it at 2000’ish if i can get an order in. The poor guys who bought at $9k are freaking.

 

I tried buying (small) BCH but it is still stopped. Maybe after Xmas it'll reopen?

 

Hugs,

Greg

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