Is it too soon

[Ajac]

Owing to many of my family members living places like Huntington Beach (the Florida of California as I like to say) it's refreshing to be able to come to a thread about this and not have to argue the logic and common sense of all of it, and why it isn't just a giant global conspiracy to tank the economy and make everyone wear a mask. Thanks guys!

I think family members still worshiping the Tangerine Idiot is the most confounding thing. My brother whose debate skill is to confront facts with name calling...Your an idiot, your stupid. He told someone that I don't have any facts to back myself up. He watches nothing but Fox News. I watch multiple news outlets including what I could stomach of Fox. I have watched documentaries on Trump that were produced prior to his political career. As can be seen in my many posts I have a good deal of hate for Trump but it is seemingly intelligent family and neighbors that still can't see him for what he is really saddens me.

[CheckCar]

Owing to many of my family members living places like Huntington Beach (the Florida of California as I like to say) it's refreshing to be able to come to a thread about this and not have to argue the logic and common sense of all of it, and why it isn't just a giant global conspiracy to tank the economy and make everyone wear a mask. Thanks guys!

Yeah, this thread has been reassuring for me. As I started to lose my resolve, reading this thread helped me recommit to abstaining for now from encounters. We need to help each other stay committed to being healthy and safe as the pandemic persists.

[LivingnLA]

I'm glad to see some sanity on this board. We are still in the first wave because we failed as a country. We've been unable and unwilling to test/trace/quarantine the way every other civilized nation has done during this pandemic. Enough of us have refused to wear masks and socially distance that transmission rates are climbing again across the country. There's a very real risk some hospitals will soon be overwhelmed. I hope it doesn't get as bad as New York. Cases and hospitalizations are climbing rapidly in many states. Thankfully, deaths haven't yet. There's a lag on deaths of about 3 weeks. In mid July we should know how many 18-49 year olds (they're over half of hospitalizations) die. And how many will survive with lifelong injuries and damaged organs that may require transplants.

 

If you choose to get a massage, please wear a mask the entire time. Work with a professional who wears a mask and understands how to clean, sanitize, and disinfect as required. Preferably, that professional would also have a massage room with hospital grade HEPA air filtration or outdoors with a good breeze.

[+ keroscenefire]

I was thinking of getting a massage this weekend, but decided against it. I did hire a couple weeks ago, but cases were on a strong decline. Now they are creeping back up, so I think better safe to abstain. I might consider in a few more weeks...wait and see approach is probably best.

[Otto]

I almost succumbed to the 'need' for something tactile. But this thread has saved me, thanks guys!

 

'someone saved my life tonight sugar bear'

[kenomora]

I'm glad to see some sanity on this board. We are still in the first wave because we failed as a country. We've been unable and unwilling to test/trace/quarantine the way every other civilized nation has done during this pandemic. Enough of us have refused to wear masks and socially distance that transmission rates are climbing again across the country. There's a very real risk some hospitals will soon be overwhelmed. I hope it doesn't get as bad as New York. Cases and hospitalizations are climbing rapidly in many states. Thankfully, deaths haven't yet. There's a lag on deaths of about 3 weeks. In mid July we should know how many 18-49 year olds (they're over half of hospitalizations) die. And how many will survive with lifelong injuries and damaged organs that may require transplants.

 

If you choose to get a massage, please wear a mask the entire time. Work with a professional who wears a mask and understands how to clean, sanitize, and disinfect as required. Preferably, that professional would also have a massage room with hospital grade HEPA air filtration or outdoors with a good breeze.

Speaking of observing trends, I have been following Effective Reproduction Numbers on rt.live website. Rt is a good (although not perfect) indicator of how effective disease control measures are in a geographical area. The numerical value represents how many people, on average, an infected person could transmit the disease to. The better the control, the smaller the number. The model used to create these graphs makes a whole lot of sense in terms of epidemiology, and you can totally see that the upticks in almost every state happened soon after reopening. I'm only bringing this up in case this website could be helpful for our members to monitor the situation in their state so they can make an informed decision if they are considering an encounter. The numbers are updated real-time.

[SirBillybob]

All things being equal in terms of community infection prevalence, the masseur bears the far greater risk. You have to interact with 25 masseurs to match the risk the masseur incurs massaging 25 clients.

 

Risk figures for masseurs (and cascading to clients) vary considerably geographically and according to assumptions about the estimated ratio of true : official prevalence. Let’s say actual prevalence is 10X reported tallies; assume a window of 15 days contagion among recent pop-adjusted rolling new case averages, the bulk asymptomatic/pre-symptomatic; and compare the higher incidence rate Arizona with lower rate Vermont.

 

Probability of at least one SARS-CoV-2 positive client in a grouping of 25 within a massage practice in Arizona is 13.6% for reported cases and 77.8% for assumed ‘under the radar’. In Vermont, those calculations are, respectively, 0.5% and 4.9%.

[big dale]

Speaking of observing trends, I have been following Effective Reproduction Numbers on rt.live website. Rt is a good (although not perfect) indicator of how effective disease control measures are in a geographical area. The numerical value represents how many people, on average, an infected person could transmit the disease to. The better the control, the smaller the number. The model used to create these graphs makes a whole lot of sense in terms of epidemiology, and you can totally see that the upticks in almost every state happened soon after reopening. I'm only bringing this up in case this website could be helpful for our members to monitor the situation in their state so they can make an informed decision if they are considering an encounter. The numbers are updated real-time.

Great tip on the site.