stevenkesslar

So here is a very interesting chart from the latest report of the Conference Board on the leading economic index.  The LEI is supposed to help indicate when a recession is ahead of us.

Bad news, and good news.
Bad news is that, in oversimplified terms, whenever the blue line meets the red line on the way down, we know a recession is imminent.  So since we are under the red line,  we are either now - or about to be - in a recession.  in theory.
Good news:  In fact, does anyone notice the problem?
In 2001, 2008, and 2020, the simple idea worked.  When the LEI hit that red line, we were already in a recession in two of the three examples.  In the 9/11 recession, by the time the LEI bottomed its "V" at about -12 the recession had started.
Yet this time, we hit that red line over a year ago, in 2022.  Which is why we have heard so much about a recession coming.  For over a year.  And yet, where is it? 
Meanwhile, the LEI appears to have bottomed and is back on its way up.  The chart above slightly understates the case for optimism.  I could not cut and paste the Dec. 2023 image from the report.  So that image above is from October 2023, which I found online and could cut and paste.  The December chart shows the blue line kept rising at the end of 2023, and is now near the red line ON THE WAY UP.  Meaning perhaps the danger has passed?
Here is what the report itself says about a 2024 recession:
So we are not out of the woods yet, according to the Conference Board.  But we have heard this song before.  And what they are talking about now - two quarters of slightly negative growth - is the shortest and shallowest of recessions imaginable.  in theory.  If it actually happens.
What's interesting is that the strongest indicators for both optimism and pessimism are pretty subjective.  The most bullish indicator is that the stock market is on a tear.  The most pessimistic indicator is that public opinion about the economy is, and has been, so pessimistic.  Yet it is clear that, right now, both the stock market and public opinion about the economy are going up - not down.  So on both a leading indicator for optimism and a leading indicator for pessimism, the bulls seem to winning.
I will mention again a key fact I cited above:  when asked about their personal financial prospects in 2024, 2 in 3 Americans say they think they will be better off financially this year.  That may be telling us something, too.
I've been dissecting this with my stock geeky nephew, and we have two different theories.  Both of which are plausible.  He thinks it's all that COVID stimulus money and "forced savings" that is still not spent out.  I think it's the fact that, as I have posted repeatedly, consumer debt as a percentage of disposal income is at a relative low, not a high.  Whether you like the idea or not, consumers have a lot more credit they could take on to fuel an expanding recovery.   Maybe the stock market knows this.

 

So here is a very interesting chart from the latest report of the Conference Board on the leading economic index.  The LEI is supposed to help indicate when a recession is ahead of us.

Bad news, and good news.
Bad news is that, in oversimplified terms, whenever the blue line meets the red line on the way down, we know a recession is imminent.  So since we are under the red line,  we are either now - or about to be - in a recession.  in theory.
Good news:  In fact, does anyone notice the problem?
In 2001, 2008, and 2020, the simple idea worked.  When the LEI hit that red line, we were already in a recession in two of the three examples.  In the 9/11 recession, by the time the LEI bottomed its "V" at about -12 the recession had started.
Yet this time, we hit that red line over a year ago, in 2022.  Which is why we have heard so much about a recession coming.  For over a year.  And yet, where is it? 
Meanwhile, the LEI appears to have bottomed and is back on its way up.  The chart above slightly understates the case for optimism.  I could not cut and paste the Dec. 2023 image from the report.  So that image above is from October 2023, which I found online and could cut and paste.  The December chart shows the blue line kept rising at the end of 2023, and is now near the red line ON THE WAY UP.  Meaning perhaps the danger has passed?
Here is what the report itself says about a 2024 recession:
So we are not out of the woods yet, according to the Conference Board.  But we have heard this song before.  And what they are talking about now - two quarters of slightly negative growth - is the shortest and shallowest of recessions imaginable.  in theory.  If it actually happens.
What's interesting is that the strongest indicators for both optimism and pessimism are pretty subjective.  The most bullish indicator is that the stock market is on a tear.  The most pessimistic indicator is that public opinion about the economy is, and has been, so pessimistic.  Yet it is clear that, right now, both the stock market and public opinion about the economy are going up - not down.  So on both a leading indicator for optimism and a leading indicator for pessimism, the bulls seem to winning.
I will mention again a key fact I cited above:  when asked about their personal financial prospects in 2024, 2 in 3 Americans say they think they will be better off financially this year.  That may be telling us something, too.
I've been dissecting this with my stock geeky nephew, and we have two different theories.  Both of which are plausible.  He thinks it's all that COVID stimulus money and "forced savings" that is still not spent out.  I think it's the fact that, as I have posted repeatedly, consumer debt as a percentage of disposal income is at a relative low, not a high.  Whether you like the idea or not, consumers have a lot more credit they could take on to fuel an expanding recovery.   Maybe the stock market knows this.

 

Yes, just differently.

I was disappointed to read so many pannings of the movie Red White and Royal Blue.  It should not be surprising that a fantasy love story would not have the preciseness of a documentary nor the explicitness of a pornographic oriented work.
I thoroughly enjoyed watching good people being good to each other in contrast to the more common storylines of today.
It was refreshing to see expressions of intimacy born of true romance with warmth and tenderness rather than the typical farm-animal-like rooting and snorting gilded with feigned moans and sighs punctuated with juvenile outbursts of expletives. 
My other disappointment is that the possibility of a sequel appears uncertain, I was hoping it might blossom into a short series. 

Keith Fitz-Gerald talked about Boeing again today in his email.   I;ve made quite a bit since I've been following him.   
According to the FAA, a single engine Diamond DA 40 aircraft, carrying two people was midair when the pilot reported losing its door flying over upstate NY. (Read) 
Meanwhile, Boeing’s orders and deliveries are apparently drying up. (Read) 
I suggested a pairs trade mid-December – long Airbus and short or avoid Boeing – which continues to play out well. Airbus shares have returned 3.19% while Boeing has lost –17.77%. 
Sadly, I continue to think that what’s happening could be the end of Boeing as we know it.  
Meanwhile, continue to watch for a Chinese maker to offer a long-haul aircraft to global markets within the next few years. Using stolen – err, carefully researched – technology and specifications. 

I expected the same.  Most posters have in fact said they are substantially better off.  For the reasons you said.  Add me to the club.  Homes:  way up.  Stocks:  way up.
The silver lining on the COVID cloud for me is I learned the joy of gifting.  My net worth was going up so much on paper that I decided to gift a condo to a friend.  I bought it as a favor when he was about to be evicted a few years back.  He was a tenant I didn't want, since he is also a close friend.  So during COVID I said, "WTF?"  Same with my inheritance from my parents, the last of whom died right before COVID.  Gave it away to a sister, and nieces and nephews.  COVID was good to me.  And I was good to people I love.
Why Americans feel pessimistic about their economic future
I know the question was a personal one.  But that article was particularly good in terms of spelling out why so many people feel so stressed.  None of the key phrases surprise me.  Rent:  way up.  Daycare:  more expensive.  Student loans:  coming back.  Expanded child tax credits:  gone.  For families with young kids who don't own homes and have student loans it is very understandable why they are stressed out.  But they are not the ones posting here.

I expected the same.  Most posters have in fact said they are substantially better off.  For the reasons you said.  Add me to the club.  Homes:  way up.  Stocks:  way up.
The silver lining on the COVID cloud for me is I learned the joy of gifting.  My net worth was going up so much on paper that I decided to gift a condo to a friend.  I bought it as a favor when he was about to be evicted a few years back.  He was a tenant I didn't want, since he is also a close friend.  So during COVID I said, "WTF?"  Same with my inheritance from my parents, the last of whom died right before COVID.  Gave it away to a sister, and nieces and nephews.  COVID was good to me.  And I was good to people I love.
Why Americans feel pessimistic about their economic future
I know the question was a personal one.  But that article was particularly good in terms of spelling out why so many people feel so stressed.  None of the key phrases surprise me.  Rent:  way up.  Daycare:  more expensive.  Student loans:  coming back.  Expanded child tax credits:  gone.  For families with young kids who don't own homes and have student loans it is very understandable why they are stressed out.  But they are not the ones posting here.

I expected the same.  Most posters have in fact said they are substantially better off.  For the reasons you said.  Add me to the club.  Homes:  way up.  Stocks:  way up.
The silver lining on the COVID cloud for me is I learned the joy of gifting.  My net worth was going up so much on paper that I decided to gift a condo to a friend.  I bought it as a favor when he was about to be evicted a few years back.  He was a tenant I didn't want, since he is also a close friend.  So during COVID I said, "WTF?"  Same with my inheritance from my parents, the last of whom died right before COVID.  Gave it away to a sister, and nieces and nephews.  COVID was good to me.  And I was good to people I love.
Why Americans feel pessimistic about their economic future
I know the question was a personal one.  But that article was particularly good in terms of spelling out why so many people feel so stressed.  None of the key phrases surprise me.  Rent:  way up.  Daycare:  more expensive.  Student loans:  coming back.  Expanded child tax credits:  gone.  For families with young kids who don't own homes and have student loans it is very understandable why they are stressed out.  But they are not the ones posting here.

I expected the same.  Most posters have in fact said they are substantially better off.  For the reasons you said.  Add me to the club.  Homes:  way up.  Stocks:  way up.
The silver lining on the COVID cloud for me is I learned the joy of gifting.  My net worth was going up so much on paper that I decided to gift a condo to a friend.  I bought it as a favor when he was about to be evicted a few years back.  He was a tenant I didn't want, since he is also a close friend.  So during COVID I said, "WTF?"  Same with my inheritance from my parents, the last of whom died right before COVID.  Gave it away to a sister, and nieces and nephews.  COVID was good to me.  And I was good to people I love.
Why Americans feel pessimistic about their economic future
I know the question was a personal one.  But that article was particularly good in terms of spelling out why so many people feel so stressed.  None of the key phrases surprise me.  Rent:  way up.  Daycare:  more expensive.  Student loans:  coming back.  Expanded child tax credits:  gone.  For families with young kids who don't own homes and have student loans it is very understandable why they are stressed out.  But they are not the ones posting here.

I’m also better off financially. My income properties have all doubled in value since 2015. My tenants maintained their payments through the pandemic and I’ve been able to get steady increases as leases renew. My portfolio is well invested and diverse and I have other real estate development investments. Great health and friends. I’m thankful for my good fortune.

Yes, the government pension (funded from the current government budget not prior individual contributions, and open to everyone but means tested on a sliding scale based on other income and on assets), is poverty level. I don't qualify for that. Mine is one funded by my lifetime pre-tax contributions, and employer contributions over my career. It started out as a military retirement scheme but was rolled into a fund that complied with the mandatory national superannuation scheme when it was implemented in the 90s.

I feel better off now in terms of available cash flow but that's entirely because I had not started to collect my pension at the start of the pandemic and was spending accrued savings. Since my pension was a lump sum in the pension fund (and would yield an incrementally higher fortnightly payment the longer I delayed starting to draw it down) my then-and-now comparison is an illusion. I have other tax-exposed investments and a tax-protected pension fund that I know are there but don't factor in to my day-to-day financial situation. In the last four years I haven't been spending all my pension income, and six months ago paid cash for a new[er] car, and have been travelling, including hotel rates I would have blanched at in the past (I'm looking at you, InnDulge) and paying to sit closer to the front of the aeroplane.
Like @Luv2play my pension is CPI indexed, biannually in my case, and my house has increased in value but I'm not planning to sell it so its value is, for now, immaterial. So whether it's real, an illusion or just that I have settled into a new pattern, I feel better off now than I did in 2020.

I know that everyone’s situation is different, but I was expecting everyone to say yes to this question. The market is up about 45% since Feb 2020. Home prices sky rocketed. Surely many of the people on this forum own substantial amounts of stock and real estate. 
I’m definitely better off, and I include my social life in that statement. Covid was a chance to get very close to people without the distractions of our normally-busy lives. Those bonds have lasted for me.

I’m in much better shape now than I was in 2020.  My combined asset portfolio at the end of 2023 is up over 15% and so far in 2024 I’m up an additional 5%.   I’m a fairly conservative investor and usually buy and hold for the long term.  This philosophy has served me well.  Now that I’m a septuagenarian I’m beginning to reduce my holdings via gifts and donations to charitable organizations.  

A footnote about Down Low.  
I'm liking what I will call Gage's "necrophilia standard".   Or maybe it should be called the "is it too over the top?" standard.  The buddy I watch a lot of TV with reacted to the (Gage) butt eating scene in The White Lotus by exclaiming, "Oh my God!  HBO has finally gone too far!"  Apparently not.  Gage got funding for something even raunchier.
I thought of this a few nights ago when I watched the 1998 coming out film Get Real, which Wikipedia describes as an LGBTQ cult classic.  I liked the film a lot.  That said, as I watched it I felt annoyed by all the Gay denial, and the Gay shame, and the embarrassment about kissing, and the embarrassment about cruising, and the embarrassment about ......... you know, just being Gay.  It was 1998, after all.  I could name just about any other good LGBTQ film made around them, or for years after.  Which was groundbreaking at the time.
So I'm all for the idea of The Gays being fashion forward and fucking dead hotties.  Or munching on Gage's butt while we are cracked up.  It is just fantasy, after all.  And cheaper to rent than a porno.  And perhaps having films like this is moving the Overton window, and hopefully making cinema less shameful about ................ well, being Gay.
 

True.  I thought the current reviews of Down Low on Metacritic nailed it.  I appreciated it for raunchy laughs.  And as a corrective.  Like this line from the Hollywood Reporter:
Although even that is a bit out of date.  These days, Gay suicide and psychodrama is old school.  Being Gay or Bi and in love is all about being Red, White, and Royally PC.  People loved Heartstoppers.  And it already had a season two.  RR & RB was adored by our Straight allies, and is one of Amazon's Top 10 streamed movies this year.  It will likely have a sequel. 
Straight people won't love Down Low.  And don't hold your breath for a sequel.  That could kill you.  Which would just make you necro bait.  Which I guess means there could be a sequel, with you in it.  🤔  
In the spirit of Bottoms and Down Low, let's spell out the limitations of being Red White & Royally PC.
Look.  I am Gay.  Did I mention Gay is spelled with a "G"?  Look.  I am a Bisexual.  I am not Gay.  Being Bisexual is NOT being Gay, okay?  Did I mention the "B" in LGBTQ stands for Bisexual?  Look.  We are holding hands.  That's NOT because we want to fuck each other.  That's because we are deeply in love.  Oh.  Did I mention we are deeply committed?  Not to having sex.  To marriage.  We don't like to talk about Gay sex.  We don't want you to think of us as having Gay sex.  All we need to explain to you is that when we are having something that may seem like Gay sex  to you, off camera - which does not involve mess, sweat, passion, or anal douching - our eyes twinkle.  Did I mention that is because we are deeply in love?

Okay.  I get it.  I get it.  That may be how we won a propaganda campaign for same sex marriage.  And tolerance for LGBTQ people, or whatever the fuck alphabet soup the whole queer thing is about this month.  But it is basically really fucking boring.  Okay?  Can't we just skip the love shit and put Taylor and Nick in a porn movie?  And somebody send Nick to a Gay Gold's Gym for a month first.  Where he hopefully gets fucked in the showers a lot.  He's Straight, so I think he needs the experience.
I think the message of Down Low is that, these days, The Gays can have our cock and eat it, too.  I can be deeply committed to Taylor, and marry him.  (He is Gay after all.)  And meanwhile I can run Nick over with a truck and fuck his dead body.  (He is Straight, after all.  So if he ever has been fucked he was probably face down and lifeless, anyway.  😒  We've all been there and done that.)
The other on target comment one reviewer made about Down Low is that, unlike in Red White & Royally PC, The Gays do not have to explain ourselves to Straight people. Or seek their acceptance.  That actually fits with my real life experience - both ways.  I know some of the best Straight female political activists in the country, who fought hard for same sex marriage.  They completely got why I wanted to volunteer for the cause of marriage equality.  They completely could not get why I wanted to be a Gay escort.  Such is life.  I just accept it.
Needless to say, I don't tell my Straight friends about how many hot dead guys I've fucked.  Hopefully they won't see Down Low, and catch on.  😉

I was curious.  So I Googled his name and "Boeing" and came up with this post from Jan. 29 in which he lays out his concerns about Boeing.  As you say, all his investment advice sounds spot on.
Buy defense stocks
GOL, one of Brazil's largest airlines, did just go bankrupt.  They were actually doing okay in terms of operating costs, given the global recovery.  But their problem was all the debt they got loaded up with during the pandemic.  Boeing is somewhat in the same ballpark, according to FT.   Fitz-Gerald sounds right in saying the pain probably is not over.
One thing I did learn is that when I read the word "bankruptcy" in print, I should believe it.  Some Brazilian financial newspaper leaked that GOL was considering filing for bankruptcy, which led to an immediate huge intraday drop.  The company issued a statement saying they were in negotiations, blah blah blah, and nothing would happen in January.  So the stock recovered to pretty much where it had been.  During that brief recovery, I sold half my shares at a small profit.   I figured I had a few weeks to sell the rest for a little more, if the recovery continued.  Then they unexpectedly filed for bankruptcy on Jan. 25.  They essentially admitted they lied about their timeline once the news leaked that bankruptcy was in fact imminent, to stay ahead of the curve.  I'm kicking myself for not selling everything.  But when I net out what I made in short term gains over several years riding that wave, I came out with only a small loss.
I like what Fitz-Gerald says about defense stocks.  I bought RTX late last year and am up about 12 % as of today. Every once in a while going back half a century Raytheon's value drops 30 to 50 %.  In this recent case, like Boeing, mostly due to their own errors.  And it is always a good time to buy, because they always recover.  Unlike GOL, which was a failed exercise in market timing, that is one I bought for the reason Fitz-Gerald said.  It is a long cycle investment with a decent dividend.
Where he sounds particularly spot on is that all tech is not the same.  And, mostly, the bigger the better:  like AAPL and MSFT, which he mentions.  It seems like this market is all tech, all the time.  I got a big cash windfall when I sold a rental home last August.  The shares of AAPL I bought then are up about 5 %.  Not bad.  The shares in FNGU and SOXL, which are 3x bullish ETFs, are both up about 75 %.  It's all the big tech names, AAPL, MSFT, NVDA.  What could possibly go wrong?
If you bought Boeing when the S & P 500 peaked in 2000, you would have done just as well as buying it or the S & P.  Both are up a little more than 3x their 2000 high.  RTX is more like 5x its 2000 value.  Microsoft, one of the big winners of the 2000 tech bubble, is now worth 7x its 2000 value.  Apple comes in at about 140x its 2000 value.  Again, it seems like all tech, all the time.
That said, at some point the tech trip is going to get very bumpy.  And when it goes bad it will feel like being on one of those Boeings when the doors blow out mid-flight.  Happily, it's easier to parachute out of tech stocks than it is a Boeing jet.  Meanwhile, enjoy the blue skies!
 

I definitely wouldn't be buying it.   
Keith Fitz-Gerald, recommends shorting it.   I value his advice and have made a lot of money off his tips.   He seems to think Boeing will go bankrupt, but I don't see that happening seeing the only competition they have is Airbus and they are a couple years behind in orders.

I agree, but doubt that it is in any danger of bankruptcy. If it were a stand-alone commercial aviation company I would be less confident but with its substantial military division far less so. Still, it's a big source of US exports and a big employer and both of those are intrinsically valuable to the economy, both of the whole country and the regions where it and its suppliers have their plants. Recent events have illustrated that maximising profits can be at the expense of long term value and Boeing management would do well to take that lesson on board. If they can. Building mutually beneficial relationships with suppliers (if it persists in out-soucing parts of its manufacturing process to unfortunately named companies like Spirit), its work force and its local communities and to governments rather than rent-seeking for short-term profit might be a useful business model, even if it has a utility rate of return.
I read a critique of management practices in a different context that said company management is prone to manage in their own best interests rather than the best interests of shareholders or any other stakeholders. I wonder if that is a factor in Boeing.

Then you are truly going to hate my “dogs of the Dow” strategy. 😆

To keep the peace between us…perhaps we can talk about the “scoundrels of the S&P” Instead? 😋

Yes, that is correct.  Consumers are spending less of their income on debt, not more.   It's near a record low, not a record high, in terms of how it actually hits people in the pocketbook.  That's not something that is going to cause a recession.
An interesting expostulation to which I can not concur, unlike our sage and symmetrical analysis of federal indebtedness. 
Personally, I think the historically low levels of their income consumers are spending on debt is great.  It does in fact indicate that incomes are going up, just like prices did.  And it's helping drive the recovery from COVID.  It's not driving a recession.  That is the whole picture.
But, hey.  Don't take my word for it.
Two-thirds of Americans think they’ll be better off financially in 2024: Survey
Stock Indexes Post Record Highs on Robust Earnings and U.S. Labor Market Strength

Let's fix that:
People form their opinions on the health of the economy based on the constant drumbeat of the media -- even if it doesn't reflect their own experiences. No government report will change that.
That's why people who are doing pretty well in the current economy will nevertheless "think" that the economy is still bad for others. 

Two-thirds of Americans think they’ll be better off financially in 2024: Survey
Does this indicate a recession, too?  🤔
It may be a coincidence.  But that recent poll is by Fidelity, on investments, as opposed to some political pollster.  The notion that one-third feel worse off still, but two thirds are optimistic about their personal finances in 2024, seems to adhere better to objective economic realities.
And sorry to be a nagging bitch about one very important fact:

Many here, including me, would argue that ANY consumer debt is corrosive.  That said, it does keep the economy going.  Right now we are at historically low debt levels as a percentage of disposable personal income.  This offers evidence against an imminent recession, not for one.
To connect this to my postulations above, this is very different from 2008.  Back then we had the toxic combination of high consumer debt levels, and a mass extinction of $6 trillion in home equity. Which particularly nailed the middle class.  Even for those who did not lose their home.  We now live in pretty much the opposite environment.  No wonder 2 in 3 feel optimistic.
 
 

Yes, that is correct.  Consumers are spending less of their income on debt, not more.   It's near a record low, not a record high, in terms of how it actually hits people in the pocketbook.  That's not something that is going to cause a recession.
An interesting expostulation to which I can not concur, unlike our sage and symmetrical analysis of federal indebtedness. 
Personally, I think the historically low levels of their income consumers are spending on debt is great.  It does in fact indicate that incomes are going up, just like prices did.  And it's helping drive the recovery from COVID.  It's not driving a recession.  That is the whole picture.
But, hey.  Don't take my word for it.
Two-thirds of Americans think they’ll be better off financially in 2024: Survey
Stock Indexes Post Record Highs on Robust Earnings and U.S. Labor Market Strength

Any objective policy analysis has to commence with the verity of this statement.  In fact, as recently as last December 6 in 10 Americans said they felt like we're in a recession. Such emotional proclamations are objectively inaccurate, to be sure.  The economy is growing quit nicely.  What to make of this vexing question?  That's anyone's guess.
My guess is that when you're pumping gas, you're not thinking about how much more your home value or retirement account are up.  But beyond that, even if you are one of the 2 in 3 Americans who own a home, inflation probably did cut into your income in 2021 and 2022 pretty much no matter where you live in the US.   Or on the planet Earth.  2023 and 2024 are a different story. Wages are now outpacing inflation.  And have been for a year.  Maybe that's just starting to register. 
As shitty as many people feel about the economy, 2 in 3 expect to be better off financially in 2024.  Huh?  That doesn't sounds like an imminent recession to me.  It seems like at some point as income and net worth rise for Americans at all income levels optimism has to break through.  Although I think this thread proves that, regardless of net worth or income, there is a segment of Americans, especially older ones, who exhibit a profound and soul-stirring allegiance to pessimism.
And speaking of pessimism:
Fed’s Powell: ‘Urgent’ for US to focus on debt sustainability
Now admit it, guys.  Our sage @augustus and I nailed it, didn't we?  From our keypads to Jerome Powell's lips.
Based on a complex statistical analysis, I would argue the chances of US federal debt causing a recession in 2024 are between "no chance whatsoever" and "absolutely fucking zero".  The more interesting question is how long will the vast majority of Americans who realize this is toxic for economic growth and our investments allow leaders to kick this can down the road while we bicker?  The answer to that is somewhere between "I don't have a clue" and "way the fuck longer than it should take, if we were acting like good investors."
Powell is right that sooner is better than later.  This thread and many more like it document the salutary effects of savings and investment. And the commitment of many posters here to basic financial apothegms.  It would also be salutary if the 83 % of Americans (including 85 % of young Americans who will be saddled with massive debts and high interest rates) could cut the bickering and focus on getting our leaders to compromise and do something about the debt. 
That's certainly one way to avoid a recession.  In addition to making common sense, it has worked in the past.

Carville was and is right, again.  The bond vigilantes are back: