kenomora

From the VERY article that Coriolis888 referenced from the CDC:
 
"Studies suggest that it is more likely that a person will get GBS after getting the flu than after vaccination. It is important to keep in mind that severe illness and death are associated with flu, and getting vaccinated is the best way to prevent flu infection and its complications."
 
SO, if Coriolis888's story & his reported GBS concerns you, then you should be REALLY concerned about actually GETTING the flu as you are MORE likely to get GBS if you ACTUALLY GET influenza. I repeat, please get your flu shot.
 

 
Most? Sorry, but you're statement is batshit crazy.
Your perception of reality is off.
Or you exaggerate like crazy.
Or both.

Please dont make the same POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING mistake he's making.
 
 
First, I'm a board certified American physician. I do this for a living. So yes, I know what I'm talking about.
 
 
Did the writer get a vaccine? Yes, I have NO reason to believe he is being dishonest.
Did the writer get ill? Yes, I have NO reason to believe he is being dishonest.
 
 
But he's making what scientists call a Cause and Effect Error.
 
 
Many, many thousands of years ago, as we lived in Mother Africa, we heard roosters crowing at EVERY dawn. We therefore thought at that time that the roosters crowing at dawn BROUGHT UP the sun. We now dont think such nonsense as obviously we see now that these bronze age people were making a Cause and Effect Error. Just because one event follows another, doesn't mean the first event caused the second.
 
 
Dear readers: his vaccine did NOT in any way, shape, or form cause his illness. Thats nonsense thinking. He got ill, sure, but its a mere coincidence that the illness followed the vaccine. Dont make his tragic mistake & believe such nonsense. THAT mistake could KILL YOU, or OTHERS around you.
 
 
I have NO delusions that this man will change his views no matter how strong an argument or proof is shown to him. These are the guys who go to their (literal) grave defending illogical but dearly held beliefs (believe me, I see them professionally all the time!). My point to you is just dont be LIKE him.
 
 
My dear brothers, GET your flu shot ASAP. This is NOT the year to get influenza AND Covid-19 at the same time. Such an event could be fatal.
 
 
FYI: 2019/2020 flu season killed roughly 22,000 Americans. 370,000 Americans were hospitalized (not visited the ER, hospitalized)!

So many wrong things being brought up here.....again. Let me break it down for you.
 

Screening body temp at the door and asking questions won't help. Not everyone has a fever or two other symptoms.
Of course the science changes as we know more about the virus and how it spreads. This is not inconsistency. Recommendations change because there are new data to support them. Politics occasionally influences what the CDC says, but not by much.
The disease is deadly, or can make you really miserable for a long time or even leave permanent damage. Some of us will get more sick than others and there isn't always an explanation. People are still out and about because we all need to do stuff outside once in a while. It is a risk. There is no way the government can disinfect all public places.
There is no way a masseuse can keep his studio clean enough to not spread the virus form one client or from themselves to another client, or vice versa.
Testing before and after a session doesn't necessarily help. If you've had a session, just self-isolate for 10 days. The world welcomes you back if you're still not sick by then.
When you decide to take a risk, you automatically bring those around you for the ride.
People still travel because they have to. Airlines still operate so they can pay their staff. And apparently they still have lay off a crap ton of people. Traveling is still a huge risk and yes travel really should have been shut down. In some Asian countries with almost no new cases nowadays you can't fly in without facing a 2-week state quarantine.
Don't talk about how "COVID deaths aren't really COVID deaths" if you don't have a basic concept of how people get sick and die. A great analogy I found on Twitter "I have Type 1 diabetes. I am healthy enough to run ultramarathons. If I get attacked by a bear & the ICU has trouble managing my blood sugar while caring for my bear attack wounds...and I die... the bear is the cause of my death."
If you just need to get tested so you can feel better before or after a session, please stay away from public health clinics and go to your own doctors. Save those tests for people who truly need them but cannot afford to get them.

So many wrong things being brought up here.....again. Let me break it down for you.
 

Screening body temp at the door and asking questions won't help. Not everyone has a fever or two other symptoms.
Of course the science changes as we know more about the virus and how it spreads. This is not inconsistency. Recommendations change because there are new data to support them. Politics occasionally influences what the CDC says, but not by much.
The disease is deadly, or can make you really miserable for a long time or even leave permanent damage. Some of us will get more sick than others and there isn't always an explanation. People are still out and about because we all need to do stuff outside once in a while. It is a risk. There is no way the government can disinfect all public places.
There is no way a masseuse can keep his studio clean enough to not spread the virus form one client or from themselves to another client, or vice versa.
Testing before and after a session doesn't necessarily help. If you've had a session, just self-isolate for 10 days. The world welcomes you back if you're still not sick by then.
When you decide to take a risk, you automatically bring those around you for the ride.
People still travel because they have to. Airlines still operate so they can pay their staff. And apparently they still have lay off a crap ton of people. Traveling is still a huge risk and yes travel really should have been shut down. In some Asian countries with almost no new cases nowadays you can't fly in without facing a 2-week state quarantine.
Don't talk about how "COVID deaths aren't really COVID deaths" if you don't have a basic concept of how people get sick and die. A great analogy I found on Twitter "I have Type 1 diabetes. I am healthy enough to run ultramarathons. If I get attacked by a bear & the ICU has trouble managing my blood sugar while caring for my bear attack wounds...and I die... the bear is the cause of my death."
If you just need to get tested so you can feel better before or after a session, please stay away from public health clinics and go to your own doctors. Save those tests for people who truly need them but cannot afford to get them.

The discussion here shows 2 things about Covid: that public opinion about it, and understanding the scientific aspects of it, are in different places.
Business operations will resume in full, including massage, at some point in the future. Businesses that can do so, have found a way to take into account the public health boundaries, and there are some service businesses that cannot, as the degree of social distance is incompatible with the service they provide.
The virus does not change its behavior (finding any host it can) to accommodate human needs, let alone wants.
The need for financial normalcy (and physical intimacy) has the power to negate, in public discourse, the scientific fact that the world is still struggling to stop spread, treat the illness, and save lives.
As you think about hiring, act responsibly afterwards -plan to isolate yourself as much as possible and mask up always in the 14 days after - this is the way that the impact of your decision to take personal risk stops with you. Tell people you had contact with someone who tested positive afterwards and you are acting with an abundance of caution. (Or tell them that you really just broke down and had to have a rub-n-tug...)
 
Get the massage. But be a decent person, and make the sacrifice after to not spread what might have spread to you in spite of best efforts. if you live alone and work from home it’s really easy. If there are others in your home from whom you don’t distance, change that for 14 days. The spread thrives on the notion of “it was just the one time”
 
I have to abstain, so I do.

So many wrong things being brought up here.....again. Let me break it down for you.
 

Screening body temp at the door and asking questions won't help. Not everyone has a fever or two other symptoms.
Of course the science changes as we know more about the virus and how it spreads. This is not inconsistency. Recommendations change because there are new data to support them. Politics occasionally influences what the CDC says, but not by much.
The disease is deadly, or can make you really miserable for a long time or even leave permanent damage. Some of us will get more sick than others and there isn't always an explanation. People are still out and about because we all need to do stuff outside once in a while. It is a risk. There is no way the government can disinfect all public places.
There is no way a masseuse can keep his studio clean enough to not spread the virus form one client or from themselves to another client, or vice versa.
Testing before and after a session doesn't necessarily help. If you've had a session, just self-isolate for 10 days. The world welcomes you back if you're still not sick by then.
When you decide to take a risk, you automatically bring those around you for the ride.
People still travel because they have to. Airlines still operate so they can pay their staff. And apparently they still have lay off a crap ton of people. Traveling is still a huge risk and yes travel really should have been shut down. In some Asian countries with almost no new cases nowadays you can't fly in without facing a 2-week state quarantine.
Don't talk about how "COVID deaths aren't really COVID deaths" if you don't have a basic concept of how people get sick and die. A great analogy I found on Twitter "I have Type 1 diabetes. I am healthy enough to run ultramarathons. If I get attacked by a bear & the ICU has trouble managing my blood sugar while caring for my bear attack wounds...and I die... the bear is the cause of my death."
If you just need to get tested so you can feel better before or after a session, please stay away from public health clinics and go to your own doctors. Save those tests for people who truly need them but cannot afford to get them.

Looks like he got himself banned - and good riddance. Two way conversations and teachable moments good, but you can't fix that level of blind ignorance.
People have different comfort zones in choosing to get a massage or dining or airplanes based on their circumstance and judgement Whatever the circumstance be safe out there. We're fighting the virus, not each other.

Fomite transmission is felt to be extremely rare as well. The danger in restaurants is NOT from the food but rather from asymptomatic infected individuals eating and talking unmasked and nearby.

Getting a massage is optional, eating is not.

Keep your fake news current. There had not been a single case of food borne covid infection reported in ANY country with pandemic yet.

Thank you so much. I can sense by your comments that you truly understand how I felt. It's not been easy for you either. I'm sure you have enough stories to write a book. I'd like to believe that a compassionate doctor like you may have comforted Mom before she was taken away from us.

So many wrong things being brought up here.....again. Let me break it down for you.
 

Screening body temp at the door and asking questions won't help. Not everyone has a fever or two other symptoms.
Of course the science changes as we know more about the virus and how it spreads. This is not inconsistency. Recommendations change because there are new data to support them. Politics occasionally influences what the CDC says, but not by much.
The disease is deadly, or can make you really miserable for a long time or even leave permanent damage. Some of us will get more sick than others and there isn't always an explanation. People are still out and about because we all need to do stuff outside once in a while. It is a risk. There is no way the government can disinfect all public places.
There is no way a masseuse can keep his studio clean enough to not spread the virus form one client or from themselves to another client, or vice versa.
Testing before and after a session doesn't necessarily help. If you've had a session, just self-isolate for 10 days. The world welcomes you back if you're still not sick by then.
When you decide to take a risk, you automatically bring those around you for the ride.
People still travel because they have to. Airlines still operate so they can pay their staff. And apparently they still have lay off a crap ton of people. Traveling is still a huge risk and yes travel really should have been shut down. In some Asian countries with almost no new cases nowadays you can't fly in without facing a 2-week state quarantine.
Don't talk about how "COVID deaths aren't really COVID deaths" if you don't have a basic concept of how people get sick and die. A great analogy I found on Twitter "I have Type 1 diabetes. I am healthy enough to run ultramarathons. If I get attacked by a bear & the ICU has trouble managing my blood sugar while caring for my bear attack wounds...and I die... the bear is the cause of my death."
If you just need to get tested so you can feel better before or after a session, please stay away from public health clinics and go to your own doctors. Save those tests for people who truly need them but cannot afford to get them.

Hi Redwine56, I'm genuinely sorry for your loss. I can only imagine having to die in pain and completely alone, and in a sedated state does not really understand why nobody was there for them. These beloved elderly have done so much for us and survived all the hardships in life.....they did not deserve to die this way. We have tested a lot of skilled nursing facilities, and at least 40-50% of the residents always test positive, and it's always somebody from the outside world that has brought the virus in with them. Each time I hear a story like yours, I cry. You and your mother have experienced the absolute worst, and unfortunately there have been at least 200,000 more stories that are pretty much similar to yours. As a healthcare professional I know how devastating this disease can be, but my experience is nothing compared to that of people whose loved ones were taken away due to COVID-19. All I can do is to try to do my job well and educate the public so people know how to keep themselves and those around them safe until we have a better tool to control this infection.

I respect your opinion especially after seeing your later post that you a real doctor. I definitely know this virus is real and a killer. I never doubted it. The only people who are non-believers are those fortunate enough to not have been touched by it. I lost my mother in April at the height of the pandemic. The poor woman was taken away never to be seen again. I was her main caretaker and we were very close. Her health took a turn at the worst possible time and as she went from hospital to rehab, she caught the virus and passed away. She begged for me to visit her and when I tried my damndest, the security guards threatened to arrest me. I never saw Mom again. She was left to die all alone for the last weeks of her time here on earth. It still breaks my heart when I think about it. I know all too well what the famiies of the COVID victims endured.

You are most welcome, Mr. Kyle_paul11. However, you are still wrong about a few things. I have literally been living and breathing all things COVID-19 and working 80-hour weeks trying to save lives of the millions of people I serve since this whole damn thing began. With that, I think it's fair to say that what I pull out of my brain is much more than hearsay. And it's all about health. Not sure why you don't think it has not been. If it had not been about health I wouldn't have had to work this hard to keep my people COVID-19 free. Anyway, it does not seem though that any reasoning could convince you otherwise. I'll just focus on providing my professional recommendation here for those who are interested in what I have to share.
 
Edited to add some more info: Mr. Kyle or Paul or whatever this name is, mentioned on the next page that if COVID-19 is so bad why did schools open? Welp, if he had read any news at all he would have known that quite a few schools and large universities that initially opened had to switch back to doing everything online after only a few days due to the explosion of cases among students and staff. I would have created another post, but do not wish to continue on and on with this lovely banter with him.

So many wrong things being brought up here.....again. Let me break it down for you.
 

Screening body temp at the door and asking questions won't help. Not everyone has a fever or two other symptoms.
Of course the science changes as we know more about the virus and how it spreads. This is not inconsistency. Recommendations change because there are new data to support them. Politics occasionally influences what the CDC says, but not by much.
The disease is deadly, or can make you really miserable for a long time or even leave permanent damage. Some of us will get more sick than others and there isn't always an explanation. People are still out and about because we all need to do stuff outside once in a while. It is a risk. There is no way the government can disinfect all public places.
There is no way a masseuse can keep his studio clean enough to not spread the virus form one client or from themselves to another client, or vice versa.
Testing before and after a session doesn't necessarily help. If you've had a session, just self-isolate for 10 days. The world welcomes you back if you're still not sick by then.
When you decide to take a risk, you automatically bring those around you for the ride.
People still travel because they have to. Airlines still operate so they can pay their staff. And apparently they still have lay off a crap ton of people. Traveling is still a huge risk and yes travel really should have been shut down. In some Asian countries with almost no new cases nowadays you can't fly in without facing a 2-week state quarantine.
Don't talk about how "COVID deaths aren't really COVID deaths" if you don't have a basic concept of how people get sick and die. A great analogy I found on Twitter "I have Type 1 diabetes. I am healthy enough to run ultramarathons. If I get attacked by a bear & the ICU has trouble managing my blood sugar while caring for my bear attack wounds...and I die... the bear is the cause of my death."
If you just need to get tested so you can feel better before or after a session, please stay away from public health clinics and go to your own doctors. Save those tests for people who truly need them but cannot afford to get them.

This has been asked an answered a few times in this forum already. You're going to get a multitude of responses. Mine is this: is that massage worth exposing yourself, your friends and family, and other members of your community to a deadly virus? There's no massage where someone can stay six feet away from you, and even if you both wear masks (unlikely) there's no certainty that the practitioner is doing a thorough job of cleaning the space. It just seems super reckless and somewhat selfish to ignore all the science and press on in this reality.

At this point the science is pretty clear. The death rate is known.
Masks have proven to be effective in limiting the spread.
Most air purifiers off the shelf are not HEPA compliant so wont help you much. Those that are, are expensive and require frequent maintenance.
You are not just making the judgement for yourself but also those around you that you could infect.
The masseur could be infected, regardless of how clean he is.

As a masseur I may be shooting my own foot by saying this, but we can rely too heavily on massages to bring us back to fighting shape. We need to stretch more. All of us. I don't mean 1 minute of stretching before or after an activity, but 20-30 minutes (or more) of stretching or yoga 2 or 3 times a week. Believe me I find stretching very boring. I much prefer to have someone else rub and stretch me. However, you will stay on top of, not just injuries, but general discomfort and malaise if you stretch properly and, just as importantly, regularly.
 
There are thousands of very good stretching and/or yoga youtube videos for all abilities.
 
Stay safe. Stay limber

It's not surprising that's your most clever remark, but while you go ahead and joke, people are dying and you could very well end up contributing directly to the death of someone you know and love. COVIDiot.

Oh dear, please tell you me you were not implying that it was ok for you to not worry about getting it again. Long term protective immunity has not been demonstrated, while there are many reports of reinfection or relapse. @musclvr did a great job of explaining that not everyone develops neutralizing antibodies, which are the antibodies that can render the virus non-infectious. Only about 10% of people who've had COVID-19 become what they call "elite neutralizer" See below screen cap from this presentation:
 
width=554pxhttps://i.ibb.co/wpxTJDV/Screen-Shot-2020-07-20-at-9-40-42-PM.png[/img]
Basically, they tested blood collected from >350 patients who recovered from COVID-19 in NY for the presence of neutralizing antibodies. As you can see above, the neutralizing capabilities of over 300 patients were so low (in the red line) it may not have been protective, while elite neutralizers have clearly developed protective immunity that actually reduced rates of infection in a cell culture model. Patients in the non-elite group did develop antibodies, but not necessarily neutralizing or protective. This is basically to show you that you really cannot believe you would be protected simply because you have previously been infected. Also, most of the evidence now suggests that even these neutralizing antibodies wane over time, sometime falling below putative protective levels within a few months.
 
From my opinion, the vaccines are not going to be silver bullets. Experience from SARS-CoV and other CoV suggested that it is not going to be easy.
 
Another point I'd like to make is when I see people say "I have tested negative, and so did my provider" I do worry about the type of testing done on them. There are a ton of tests out there that have been approved through Emergency Use Authorization by the FDA. Do you know what that means? The EUA tests are not as well vetted/tested and the manufacturers do not have to submit extensive data on test performance in order to be able to start selling their tests. The FDA website has all the package inserts for these tests, and if you read some of them you'd be surprised how little is known about the performance of some of these tests. Basically, right now there are 3 types of tests you can get:
 
1. Molecular tests: These are tests that detect the presence of viral RNA. They are generally considered more sensitive than other types of test. If you got your test done in a hospital or a large reference lab and you had to wait a few days, there's a good chance that they used a molecular test. Again, not all molecular tests were made equal. Do you remember the Abbott ID NOW that the POTUS was a poster child for a few months ago where he got tested with this instrument? Although it is a molecular test, the technology they use for amplification of signal to indicate the presence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA is significantly inferior to other methods like PCR. It is so bad that they had to change the package insert to say something along the line of "if you test negative on this test you should get tested again with another molecular method". It's silly, but that's the truth.
2. Antigen tests: These are mostly rapid tests performed at health fairs, some field testing units, or smaller clinics. The advantages of these tests is that they are fast and not terribly expensive, and they are considered "waived" tests that are low-complexity and can be performed anywhere. However, the sensitivity is so appallingly low that, again, if you test negative on these tests you need to get retested with a molecular test.
3. Antibody tests: These are blood tests that would detect if you have developed IgM and/or IgG antibodies agains SARS-CoV-2. Literally, all we know now is that if you're positive for IgM, or IgM, or both, you've been infected in the past. Typically, for other infectious diseases the presence of IgM indicates a recent infection while IgG indicates past infections. Unfortunately, in COVID-19 IgM and IgG antibodies come up almost simultaneously so there is no use trying to distinguish between the two. The clinical utility of these antibody tests has not yet been established. Our lab performs the testing, but provides no interpretation because we simply do not know what it means!
 
I brought up all of these because when people say "I have been tested", they really need to know what kind of test was done. YOU NEED TO ASK! Was it a sensitive molecular test? Or did you just go a tent and got an antigen test? Or did you get an antibody test which is largely useless? The media tend to oversimplify the nuances of clinical testing and this results in the the public thinking they know better than lab professionals.
 
@big dale wrote really nice key points on the infection and transmission that really help some of us understand the epidemiology of the disease. Great job!
 
Just adding another terrifying news I heard today. A report from Belgium demonstrated a few strains of SARS-CoV-2 that had a mutation in the E gene, which is used as a target of detection for one of the biggest automated tests out there and this mutation led to the assay not being able to detect the presence of the virus. This is one of the first reports of mutations that could result in false negative results, and I imagine we will hear more and more about other variants that can escape detection by different platforms of diagnostic tests. Fun times.

Sorry, bud- but that attitude is part of the problem. While YOUR outcome may be OK, what about the various sundry people you spread it to? What about the mom with kids you infect at the grocery store? What about your own parents or grandparents? What about your best friend? Sure- you may only get sick, others will die and that will be directly caused by your behavior and laissez-faire attitude.
 
Grow the fuck up.

Oh dear, please tell you me you were not implying that it was ok for you to not worry about getting it again. Long term protective immunity has not been demonstrated, while there are many reports of reinfection or relapse. @musclvr did a great job of explaining that not everyone develops neutralizing antibodies, which are the antibodies that can render the virus non-infectious. Only about 10% of people who've had COVID-19 become what they call "elite neutralizer" See below screen cap from this presentation:
 
width=554pxhttps://i.ibb.co/wpxTJDV/Screen-Shot-2020-07-20-at-9-40-42-PM.png[/img]
Basically, they tested blood collected from >350 patients who recovered from COVID-19 in NY for the presence of neutralizing antibodies. As you can see above, the neutralizing capabilities of over 300 patients were so low (in the red line) it may not have been protective, while elite neutralizers have clearly developed protective immunity that actually reduced rates of infection in a cell culture model. Patients in the non-elite group did develop antibodies, but not necessarily neutralizing or protective. This is basically to show you that you really cannot believe you would be protected simply because you have previously been infected. Also, most of the evidence now suggests that even these neutralizing antibodies wane over time, sometime falling below putative protective levels within a few months.
 
From my opinion, the vaccines are not going to be silver bullets. Experience from SARS-CoV and other CoV suggested that it is not going to be easy.
 
Another point I'd like to make is when I see people say "I have tested negative, and so did my provider" I do worry about the type of testing done on them. There are a ton of tests out there that have been approved through Emergency Use Authorization by the FDA. Do you know what that means? The EUA tests are not as well vetted/tested and the manufacturers do not have to submit extensive data on test performance in order to be able to start selling their tests. The FDA website has all the package inserts for these tests, and if you read some of them you'd be surprised how little is known about the performance of some of these tests. Basically, right now there are 3 types of tests you can get:
 
1. Molecular tests: These are tests that detect the presence of viral RNA. They are generally considered more sensitive than other types of test. If you got your test done in a hospital or a large reference lab and you had to wait a few days, there's a good chance that they used a molecular test. Again, not all molecular tests were made equal. Do you remember the Abbott ID NOW that the POTUS was a poster child for a few months ago where he got tested with this instrument? Although it is a molecular test, the technology they use for amplification of signal to indicate the presence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA is significantly inferior to other methods like PCR. It is so bad that they had to change the package insert to say something along the line of "if you test negative on this test you should get tested again with another molecular method". It's silly, but that's the truth.
2. Antigen tests: These are mostly rapid tests performed at health fairs, some field testing units, or smaller clinics. The advantages of these tests is that they are fast and not terribly expensive, and they are considered "waived" tests that are low-complexity and can be performed anywhere. However, the sensitivity is so appallingly low that, again, if you test negative on these tests you need to get retested with a molecular test.
3. Antibody tests: These are blood tests that would detect if you have developed IgM and/or IgG antibodies agains SARS-CoV-2. Literally, all we know now is that if you're positive for IgM, or IgM, or both, you've been infected in the past. Typically, for other infectious diseases the presence of IgM indicates a recent infection while IgG indicates past infections. Unfortunately, in COVID-19 IgM and IgG antibodies come up almost simultaneously so there is no use trying to distinguish between the two. The clinical utility of these antibody tests has not yet been established. Our lab performs the testing, but provides no interpretation because we simply do not know what it means!
 
I brought up all of these because when people say "I have been tested", they really need to know what kind of test was done. YOU NEED TO ASK! Was it a sensitive molecular test? Or did you just go a tent and got an antigen test? Or did you get an antibody test which is largely useless? The media tend to oversimplify the nuances of clinical testing and this results in the the public thinking they know better than lab professionals.
 
@big dale wrote really nice key points on the infection and transmission that really help some of us understand the epidemiology of the disease. Great job!
 
Just adding another terrifying news I heard today. A report from Belgium demonstrated a few strains of SARS-CoV-2 that had a mutation in the E gene, which is used as a target of detection for one of the biggest automated tests out there and this mutation led to the assay not being able to detect the presence of the virus. This is one of the first reports of mutations that could result in false negative results, and I imagine we will hear more and more about other variants that can escape detection by different platforms of diagnostic tests. Fun times.

I know a couple of us on here on bombarding the rest of you with SCIENCE and REASON!... somehow conversations about molecular biology rarely helped me get a hot guy into bed back in the 1990s.
 
Published today in the New England Journal of Medicine, Ibarrondo et al. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2025179?query=featured_home
 
"Our findings raise concern that humoral immunity against SARS-CoV-2 may not be long lasting in persons with mild illness, who compose the majority of persons with Covid-19. It is difficult to extrapolate beyond our observation period of approximately 90 days because it is likely that the decay will decelerate.3 Still, the results call for caution regarding antibody-based “immunity passports,” herd immunity, and perhaps vaccine durability, especially in light of short-lived immunity against common human coronaviruses. Further studies will be needed to define a quantitative protection threshold and rate of decline of antiviral antibodies beyond 90 days."
 
This does not bode well for protective/prophylactic immunity, at least from the antibody ("humoral") response that may result from vaccines or previous infections. A "memory response" may reduce the severity of disease but not prevent infection and onset of symptoms. Longevity of T-cell responses probably won't be any better, IMO.

Oh dear, please tell you me you were not implying that it was ok for you to not worry about getting it again. Long term protective immunity has not been demonstrated, while there are many reports of reinfection or relapse. @musclvr did a great job of explaining that not everyone develops neutralizing antibodies, which are the antibodies that can render the virus non-infectious. Only about 10% of people who've had COVID-19 become what they call "elite neutralizer" See below screen cap from this presentation:
 
width=554pxhttps://i.ibb.co/wpxTJDV/Screen-Shot-2020-07-20-at-9-40-42-PM.png[/img]
Basically, they tested blood collected from >350 patients who recovered from COVID-19 in NY for the presence of neutralizing antibodies. As you can see above, the neutralizing capabilities of over 300 patients were so low (in the red line) it may not have been protective, while elite neutralizers have clearly developed protective immunity that actually reduced rates of infection in a cell culture model. Patients in the non-elite group did develop antibodies, but not necessarily neutralizing or protective. This is basically to show you that you really cannot believe you would be protected simply because you have previously been infected. Also, most of the evidence now suggests that even these neutralizing antibodies wane over time, sometime falling below putative protective levels within a few months.
 
From my opinion, the vaccines are not going to be silver bullets. Experience from SARS-CoV and other CoV suggested that it is not going to be easy.
 
Another point I'd like to make is when I see people say "I have tested negative, and so did my provider" I do worry about the type of testing done on them. There are a ton of tests out there that have been approved through Emergency Use Authorization by the FDA. Do you know what that means? The EUA tests are not as well vetted/tested and the manufacturers do not have to submit extensive data on test performance in order to be able to start selling their tests. The FDA website has all the package inserts for these tests, and if you read some of them you'd be surprised how little is known about the performance of some of these tests. Basically, right now there are 3 types of tests you can get:
 
1. Molecular tests: These are tests that detect the presence of viral RNA. They are generally considered more sensitive than other types of test. If you got your test done in a hospital or a large reference lab and you had to wait a few days, there's a good chance that they used a molecular test. Again, not all molecular tests were made equal. Do you remember the Abbott ID NOW that the POTUS was a poster child for a few months ago where he got tested with this instrument? Although it is a molecular test, the technology they use for amplification of signal to indicate the presence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA is significantly inferior to other methods like PCR. It is so bad that they had to change the package insert to say something along the line of "if you test negative on this test you should get tested again with another molecular method". It's silly, but that's the truth.
2. Antigen tests: These are mostly rapid tests performed at health fairs, some field testing units, or smaller clinics. The advantages of these tests is that they are fast and not terribly expensive, and they are considered "waived" tests that are low-complexity and can be performed anywhere. However, the sensitivity is so appallingly low that, again, if you test negative on these tests you need to get retested with a molecular test.
3. Antibody tests: These are blood tests that would detect if you have developed IgM and/or IgG antibodies agains SARS-CoV-2. Literally, all we know now is that if you're positive for IgM, or IgM, or both, you've been infected in the past. Typically, for other infectious diseases the presence of IgM indicates a recent infection while IgG indicates past infections. Unfortunately, in COVID-19 IgM and IgG antibodies come up almost simultaneously so there is no use trying to distinguish between the two. The clinical utility of these antibody tests has not yet been established. Our lab performs the testing, but provides no interpretation because we simply do not know what it means!
 
I brought up all of these because when people say "I have been tested", they really need to know what kind of test was done. YOU NEED TO ASK! Was it a sensitive molecular test? Or did you just go a tent and got an antigen test? Or did you get an antibody test which is largely useless? The media tend to oversimplify the nuances of clinical testing and this results in the the public thinking they know better than lab professionals.
 
@big dale wrote really nice key points on the infection and transmission that really help some of us understand the epidemiology of the disease. Great job!
 
Just adding another terrifying news I heard today. A report from Belgium demonstrated a few strains of SARS-CoV-2 that had a mutation in the E gene, which is used as a target of detection for one of the biggest automated tests out there and this mutation led to the assay not being able to detect the presence of the virus. This is one of the first reports of mutations that could result in false negative results, and I imagine we will hear more and more about other variants that can escape detection by different platforms of diagnostic tests. Fun times.