mike carey

I've had three since I logged on this morning. I just denied them access to my non-existent private gallery.

Thanks for that little message of hope! 😉 The thought that being a certain age as I am, travel abroad may never be possible again is there, but I remain optimistic, perhaps pollyanna-ish. My spell checker suggested I meant polyandry, but I digress. The messaging from our political leaders (with varying degrees of believability) and public health officials is hopeful. For a long time I had been looking at the accumulation of my FF and hotel reward points more to see what the various programs were doing to help preserve them and extend elite status rather than to see what I might do with them. At present I am in the ACT and can't leave, every other state has closed its borders to travellers from here, or requires a permit to go there. Even so, lately I have started to look at how flight availability is opening up and what prices are. I have been looking at premium economy and business class seats rather than start at economy. I guess that reflects a change in my attitude, from travelling economically to ensure I could continue to do so for longer, to 'use it while you can'. As I have mentioned before in other threads, my last planned travel was for the PS weekend last year, and I still have a QF credit for the cancelled airfare (validity now extended until 31 Dec 23). I had a flurry of trips to Sydney before the Delta outbreak happened in June (yes I did hire once) but that's a faint memory now. In all that, I haven't had an attack of ennui. I can walk around the suburb, shop easily within walking distance of my home and live a pleasant, if sequestered life. Today is the first day of spring, it's a brilliant cloud-free day and 23°, what's not to like. I remain optimistic that the new normal (or is that new abnormal?) will include travel. We've been shut, but I've seen (constrained) travel happening in Europe and North America, and the narrative here is shifting towards that. I actually bought some Amtrak miles to stop my small balance from expiring. Now, if you'll forgive me, I must be off to check on that cheap JAL business class ticket to Palm Springs I saw on Amex Travel, my new favourite, for next April. Not ready to buy it yet, but I now entertain the possibility I may be able to.

I seem to remember reading that in Vermont there are two seasons, winter and 15 August.

OK, I'll bite! With everything in the news and in private conversations now on the internet, everyone can read everyone else's mail. So if we complain about our lock downs or whatever else from our gilded cage, you get to read about it and understandably ask WTF. Victorians are in their sixth period of lock down and those of them in Melbourne have had 200 days of staying at home or within 5km, Sydneysiders are in about week nine of their first real lock down. Some are complaining but most are not, but all of us only have our own experience as a reference point. Sights on the television are abstract, even now, but we recognise that we are really lucky by comparison. That doesn't stop us from griping about whatever restrictions we face. I'm really sorry that you don't like to read about it, but we'll keep talking about it amongst ourselves. (I'm in Canberra, two weeks into a lock down, the first we've had, and still count myself lucky that I'm not in the same boat as my sister in Melbourne. I've been to the grocery shop twice and that's it, I've been at home for the rest of the time.) Of course it cuts both ways. Those of us paying any attention have been watching in hushed amazement at the whining of certain Americans about why they should face any restrictions or *shock horror* wear a mask when their compatriots are dropping like flies around them. A weekly program here on US politics is called 'Planet America', the validity of the title as a comment the whiners serve only to confirm.

A guy spitting into my mouth makes me gag. It's not my thing.

HI @ScottMichaelsgreat first post in the forum. Welcome aboard!

Qantas has announced its plan for resuming international flights from December. It's optimisiic, some would say unrealistic, but unlike previous plans that didn't happen, it is linked to government plans to reopen when certain vaccination milestones are reached. They relate to the percentages of the population that are fully vaccinated (and percentages of those 16 and over rather than of the whole population), so it's not based just on the airline's hopes about the easing of border restrictions. Qantas flew one of its A380s from LAX to Dresden a few days ago, and from all accounts that is to have the cabin refurbished, and today's announcement seems to confirm that, They are planning to bring five of these aircraft back into service next July, 12 months ahead of schedule, and use them for SYD-LAX and SYD-SIN-LHR. They will be bringing back 10 of their 12 A380s and retiring the other two. Qantas has written off the value of these aircraft in their losses over the last two fiscal years, so there are only the operational costs to fly them. My take on this is that they think the plan is feasible, but they are also putting pressure on the federal and state governments to carry through on the reopening schedule. Being vaccinated is part of the Qantas plan for the future of international air travel, and I think they are also signalling to the travelling public that they will need to have their jabs if they want to fly. The mood in some states is shifting, and by December most of them could be happy for the amount of opening that the Qantas plan involves, although WA and perhaps Qld may not. Ben at OMAAT is one of the 'unrealistic' voices out there, here's his take on it. https://onemileatatime.com/news/qantas-unrealistic-plan-restart-international-flights/

I haven't heard anything like that, but if she did, it wouldn't be in that sort of context. Most likely it would have bee avoid close contact with people outside your household, including your neighbours, not don't speak over your back fence.

It was a good exercise in marshalling my thoughts, and as you would have seen from my later comments on that podcast I continue to think about it. Zero Covid was always going to work until it didn't, and the hope was that the 'didn't' wouldn't happen until there was a vaccine or treatment. That plan worked, except we hadn't done enough of the vaccine roll out, but they are being rolled out quickly now. But we haven't caught that 8 ball yet. I don't think people think Covid isn't serious, it's more that they haven't thought that it was an urgent problem, although most do now. There remain sceptics, and 'we must open to save the economy' zealots but they are few. Twitter was brutal to the demonstrators and the police were inundated with the general public sending information and video to Crime Stoppers. I share your pain on not being able to make what had been a regular trip. I had started to travel regularly, mainly to the US, and today I can't even go to Sydney.

This tweet has a clip from last night's ACT version of the ABC news. It's a great video but the news reader should stop writing his own material. https://twitter.com/Dan_Bourchier/status/1430336168684494848?s=20

A good analysis of the current situation in Australia in Josh Szeps' monologue at the start of this podcast. You may remember him as one of the presenters on HuffPost TV a couple of years ago. He's since come home and works on ABC radio in Sydney. When I was writing my earlier post about when we might open our borders, I was musing about whether the likely divergence between NSW and the other states was a good or bad thing but decided to describe it without commenting on it. He makes a reasonable case that we haven't had a first wave if a 'wave' is what the US and European countries have had, so we are in a fundamentally different position of having zero background immunity from prior infection. Now that vaccinations are here we have to have an objective to underpin whatever containment measures we take, and elimination is not a realistic one, at some stage we have to have a strategy for how we emerge into a 'vaccinated' world. His commentary is in the first 25 or so minutes. https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/are-psychedelics-the-answer-with-james-mathison/id1002920114?i=1000532295035

From what I've read (and heard), a bit of both. The immediate reason for boosters has been a decline in efficacy of the vaccines in vaccinated people over time, which has been noted in Israel. Longer term, it's not clear how much modification is needed as some of the vaccines rely on characteristics of the virus that haven't changed. Australia has contracts with one of the mRNA vaccine companies for a modified version for next year, so there must be some scope for tweaks to make them more effective.

It was an existing thread.

It's not clear that we are, although it is being mitigated. Within a couple of days the NZ Health Minister conceded that the elimination strategy may have become unrealistic with Delta, and the public narrative here is much the same although not explicit. There are cases in NSW, Victoria and the ACT, and yesterday one in Queensland. The other jurisdictions are not affected and have few internal restrictions. Victoria and the ACT seem to have it under control but with some continuing spread, NSW less so and with still worrying levels of cases from unknown sources. People (and governments) are sort of holding their breath as they watch what happens as our vaccination rates start to catch up with the rest of the developed world.

Long winded answer (well, sort of) offered

I'll answer this here rather than continue in the Palm Springs Weekend thread. My immediate answer is, 'How long is a piece of string?', but that's not all that useful. The answer offered in the title of this thread is probably pessimistic now (and I thought when the thread started that it was the worst case scenario), but while pessimistic late 2022 is not out of the question. This month the government commissioned modelling on how different levels of vaccination would affect the opening of the economy and that hit on 70% and 80% of the >16yo population as gates for implementing the reduction of restrictions (not specifically the external border, but that is implied). (I heard a scientist on TV tonight say that all modelling is wrong, but some is useful.) Since then the Federal and NSW have been talking of those levels of vaccination being sufficient in themselves for phased easing of restrictions irrespective of what levels of disease there are at the time. All other state and territory governments have been saying, with increasing stridency in QLD, WA and the ACT, that those percentages of fully vaccinated people will only be one consideration in what restrictions are retained. Most of the states and territories have not said they would commit to ceasing interstate border closures, and some have said that if NSW eases its restrictions 'prematurely' they will harden their border closures to NSW. The federal government wants to open the external border, but if many of the states persist with internal border closures we could have an open Australian external border but for it to be in effect only an open NSW external border. Will that actually happen? I really don't know, and I suspect if state governments hold to the view that it's not safe to allow travel from NSW without quarantine that might delay opening the external border but it won't stop it. As to what all that means, I don't think there will be a meaningful reopening of Australia's borders before Q2 2022. I may be able to attend the Palm Springs weekend but I'll have to make last minute bookings to do so. Conversations here about lockdowns have been binary seemingly between locked down and no restrictions, but are becoming more nuanced. Even if states or cities are not locked down, there will still be mandatory isolation for positive cases and quarantine for close contacts (like being 'pinged' in the UK?). Once somewhere hits 70% then 80% (NSW and the ACT on current rates of vaccination) what that means to the levels of restrictions will become clearer as will the border debate. Depending on how that pans out over the next month or two, we should see some movement on borders by the end of the year, perhaps easing restrictions on vaccinated Australians returning to the country and then on that group being permitted to leave, with one or both those classes of travel in early 2022. It will be a pyrrhic victory if only Australians who want to go to NSW can come home. After all of that, by mid-2022 we will probably have international travel that looks broadly like the rest of the world with vaccination required and quarantine for some travellers. Recent travel to some countries may prevent travel here. What I have said above is more about the twists and diversions that could happen on the way there. One of the reasons that Australians were happy to comply, even if reluctantly in some cases, was that we could see how much worse it could be. Acceptance will drop as the rest of the world starts to appear to have returned to an apparently normal life. Our state and territory leaders are politicians, they will be able to read the room.

Yes, I am. The best bet is that we will be closed until mid-2022, but we may be open earlier. Who knows? I don't know if Amex will give you better options, it may have just been a one-off occurrence when I was looking. No harm in looking at what they offer.

This may be a really left field suggestion. I had been doing speculative searches on flight aggregator sites for flights to PSP for the April weekend (in the forlorn hope that borders will be open and I can go there), and on the Qantas site. Nothing worth considering. Amex travel on line came up with much better options, although you need to have access to it. I haven't booked anything as I don't know if the border will be open.

The Α has already passed, the Ω is yet to come. I hope the Δ is done by then.

People who have been in or transited the US (and several other countries) in the previous 21 days cannot enter Hong Kong.

I just can't wait... ... to sit in Canberra and read all the accounts of the fun you guys are having. Then again, maybe I will be able to make it, but I'm not booking just yet.

I think there is something in that (or it's in there somewhere when one puts on a little weight - extra mass, I should have said), but if it is so, I'm not sure what the conversions factor is. And what are these 'pounds' of which you speak. I should conduct an experiment to see what the rate is between inches and kilograms. It may take rather more time than I have to devote to in.

Leaving aside the minor point that 'democracy' and 'South Vietnam' were in no way related.

One more reason to visit the UK, when I can!

Well, the next variant probably won't be Delta, this guy seems to be very hard to catch.