https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2009040
This study is a bit concerning considering how the WHO and CDC and other PH officials have handled this so far. What we do know according to the 2018 NEJM study where 34 were infected and 11 died the R0 is 2.12 before isolation measures were put in place. This in an area without high population density mad the qurantine was government enforced. Researchers also concluded the virus spread primarily via aerosols and droplets and people are most contagious for a day or 2 when symptoms first appear. All the suggestions that this requires prolonged intimate close contact are not correct as patient 0 spread this to 5 other people within relatively short time frame at a bday party he attended for only 90 min. He spread it to others sitting at the same table and a table next to him at least 4 feet away. Another person spread it to 10 other people at a wake.
If we start seeing secondary infections from people in the flight with the Dutch woman who died it should be next week sometime.
A few positives:
-None of the Health Care Workers became ill even those without proper ppe suggesting a relatively short period someone is contagious and that people arent as contagious in severe stages.
- the majority of the spread occurred by 3 people which could mean certain people are much more contagious than others.
- The average incubation time was 23-28 days which would cause a much longer time for this to get out of control. Again if secondary infections start showing up it will be impossible to contact trace everyone who the Dutch wan encountered at the airport.