keroscenefire

Maybe the bugs have been worked out for earlier, but everything looks fine to me. Nice upgrade!

I'm considering hiring a regular when he travels down from Montana for Memorial Day weekend. He has essentially been isolated in his rural area (only going our for groceries and things) for the last few months and we have a good enough relationship where we'd both would be honest about potential risks.

COVID could truly end up becoming like the flu with limited herd immunity, yearly vaccines, treatments and the ebb and flow of social distancing keeping the disease somewhat in check but never eliminated. It's deadlier now because both the medical system and our individual immune systems have never seen this virus before and so we don't know really what to do with it. As we understand this virus more and more people have been exposed to it, it likely will become a lot more treatable. But like with the flu, we could still see tens of thousands of deaths per year, especially among the most vulnerable populations. We might need to put in social distancing protocols periodically as outbreaks happen in certain areas. I like what they are doing in New Zealand, having everyone think of their lives as a "bubble" that shrinks or expands depending on the severity of the disease outbreak in an area. When things are really bad, the bubble shrinks to just your immediate household and then expands to close friends and family, entire communities and eventually the rest of the world as the threat of the virus lessens.

MERS is actually still around, it's just not very transmittable..most cases are from camel to human transmission (human to human has been recorded but only in hospitals). There actually were 15 cases in Saudi Arabia in March. http://outbreaknewstoday.com/saudi-arabia-reports-15-mers-cases-in-march-2020/

The article doesn't say that because there is coronavirus in semen, that the disease can be sexually transmitted. But like with everything with this disease, we may not know until we do more research.

Most scientists who have studied this suggest that neutralizing antibodies for COVID-19 do provide some protection against the virus. That is certainly what the doctors quoted in this article are saying. “It really shows that most people do develop antibodies, and that there’s very good correlation between those antibodies and their capability to neutralize virus,” Dr. Rasmussen said. Furthermore, the study presented in this article does suggest that the presence of antibodies does mean they have fought off the COVID virus. All the donors who participated in the study had to initially test positive for Coronavirus, recover, return for the donation and then take another COVID test. While some still tested positive for COVID (possibly from some dead virus remaining in their system that is likely non-contagious), those that donated their blood tested negative for active COVID infection AND tested positive for neutralizing antibodies. This means that their body did indeed clear the virus and developed neutralizing antibodies as a result. Of course the big unknown is how long these neutralizing antibodies last. In the coronaviruses that cause the common cold, it's often only months (though they did find that memory B immune cells do respond to these cold viruses and quickly develop antibodies). While more serious coronaviruses like SARS and MERS create immune responses that last a few years. Unfortunately, we probably don't know until time passes and scientists can follow those with antibodies to see how they do over time. Fortunately there are actually many studies doing that very thing, so we'll know eventually.

It's easy enough to take a Clorox wipe on the gas pump. I do that and then clean off my hands with sanitizer after and wash my hands of course when I get home. At my local Target, the put tape over every other urinal and on the toilet in the middle so I guess there is some social distancing there. I'm assuming they clean it regularly, though it wasn't obviously clean when I went in to tinkle. I wore my mask and washed my hands right after doing my business. Opened the door with a paper towel. Faucets and soap had those laser things on them that only work after you put your hand next to them a dozen times or so. I think it worked ok.

Some good news: Most recovered COVID patients do have antibodies. The test was done in hard-hit New York with recovered patients donating their convalescent plasma for those still battling COVID. Researchers tested 1,343 people, the largest antibody study so far with a test that produces less than a 1 percent false positive rate. One promising development was that nearly everyone who recovered from COVID had antibodies regardless if their symptoms were mild, moderate or severe. And doctors do believe these antibodies offer some protection to reinfection from COVID with antibody levels in most patients being high enough to neutralize the virus. Though of course they also cautioned that we still don't know how long these antibodies last and the only way to know is through time. But it's looking more and more clear that many of those who have been sickened once by COVID are at least temporarily resistant to a second infection. That may mean many people could soon people able to return to their lives and also offers encouraging hope that convalescent plasma could be used as a successful treatment for those still suffering from the disease.

Yeah it's hard. I had a regular contact me recently who travels down from Montana. He said he has also been on hiatus and mostly self-isolating in his fairly rural home since March so he likely is pretty safe. So I was tempted. I ultimately said that Denver is still a bit too hot right now and I'd like to wait til in calms down a bit more. I think it's possible that he didn't get enough clients because he ultimately decided to wait until Memorial day before coming down. If he contacts me again then...it may happen. Really have to see how the local situation is here before I make any decisions.

Honestly, maybe never. Some are saying COVID could become a seasonal illness. And some are saying that even with a vaccine, the antibodies from it could only last a year or so. This very well could become like the flu, something you might not get every year but definitely always around. But I am also hopeful that a strong vaccine program and herd immunity could nearly eliminate it or better treatments mean many fewer will be at risk of dying from this. Viruses are unpredictable..sometimes they fade away on their own, sometimes they rage on for centuries.

Probably not lifelong...based on other coronaviruses, immunity will probably last a year, maybe two. Even some of the top scientists working on the vaccine believe it may need to be a yearly or biennial vaccine to keep the immunity going.

There actually has been some recent analysis that suggests hospitals should use ventilators less for COVID-19 patients even those with hypoxia (low-oxygen in tissues and blood). For some reason, many COVID-19 patients are able to handle some hypoxia much more than patients with other forms of pneumonia. Intubating patients causes inflammation, poor reactions to sedatives and can even cause damage and death in some cases. They are finding that simply providing oxygen through nose-prongs and supporting breathing through body positioning and other techniques might be the better course of treatment for many patients. Keep the ventilators to only the ones with dangerously low oxygen levels and those obviously struggling to breath.

There actually has been some recent analysis that suggests hospitals should use ventilators less for COVID-19 patients even those with hypoxia (low-oxygen in tissues and blood). For some reason, many COVID-19 patients are able to handle some hypoxia much more than patients with other forms of pneumonia. Intubating patients causes inflammation, poor reactions to sedatives and can even cause damage and death in some cases. They are finding that simply providing oxygen through nose-prongs and supporting breathing through body positioning and other techniques might be the better course of treatment for many patients. Keep the ventilators to only the ones with dangerously low oxygen levels and those obviously struggling to breath.

I think the restaurant case is interesting too because on average these diners at the tables with infections were eating with each other for an hour or longer. A lot of the places where we see outbreaks: Nursing homes, churches, cruise ships, jails, meatpacking plants, etc., have both close contact and long periods of time with contact. Short, passing contact with an infected individual is likely a lower-risk for infection than a longer time especially in areas with poor ventilation or when the ventilation brings the virus to you.

We have to realize there is no such thing as no risk when it comes to sex. Anyone who at the height of the HIV epidemic who said, "I'm not going to have sex again until there is no risk that I will contract this disease," would still be celibate today. Even if we have a stable partner, you are still trusting him to be monogamous to you, which is no guarantee. In the case of COVID, it's even more true. So all we can do it try to assess the risk the best we can and decide when we feel comfortable with putting ourselves out there again. In my opinion, the risk is fairly low if there is A)solid testing b) low COVID-transmission for the last 2 weeks in your community C) you meet with someone who is fairly low risk and trusted (no random hook ups, hasn't travelled recently, and hasn't been in any larger groups). Obviously it'll be best when there is a vaccine, but we don't know when that will be. Even if there is, some scientists have been saying it could be more like flu vaccines where it only offers immunity for a year or so and you will have to get revaccinated or risk reinfection. This is going to be with us for a while....hopefully our celibacy won't have to be.

Like maybe if you lived in a place like New Zealand or South Korea where the number of new cases has been very low (single or low double digits) for at least a couple of weeks. Those places have a very very small rate of local transmission currently and if your FB was someone who had been working from home and otherwise is low-risk (no recent travel), it might be okay. These countries also have high rates of testing so I think they have a good idea of what is happening in their country. But I don't think that is anywhere in the US or Europe currently and probably won't be for a long time. Keep your dick in your pants and out of the mouths of anyone for the time being.

Thanks...I was thinking it was something around that. This is why I don't teach math..haha. Hopefully things stay well with you.

Sorry to hear about your paycuts gentlemen. Hopefully it won't last long. We just got word that we will have to do unpaid furlough days next year...one a month. Not sure exactly what that means in percent less pay, but I think it's a couple percentages off. Annoyingly, they are mostly just taking formerly paid holidays and turning them into unpaid furlough days so I don't really get many more days off work. But I understand why they need to do this and am grateful that I still have a job as well.

I work for a school district and while I believe I should have a job for at least the next school year, after that I am not so sure. The district is already projecting a $30-60 million dollar deficit for the next school year and while they said they can use their "rainy-day fund" and do things like hiring freezes, they may only be able to staunch the bleeding for a while. I don't want to be too political, but this is why it's really important that the federal government help state and local governments during this time. Local governments usually don't have job losses immediately after an economic crisis, but develop them a year or two later once tax revenues plummet. The exact same thing happened in 2010 as millions of people lost their state and local jobs causing the recession to go on for even longer. Hopefully we don't make the same mistake again.

I think the WHO is cautioning that we don't know enough about COVID-19 to say whether reinfection is possible. They also are a bit skeptical of the antibody tests that are currently out because many have pretty high error rates. But actually I think a lot of scientists are saying reinfection is probably unlikely at least for most who have recovered and for a certain amount of time. This Vox explainer I thought did a good job of laying it out. I think as we start to understand more about COVID-19, we will have better antibody tests and a better understanding about how they protect against the virus. I feel like we're kinda in the early ages of when HIV first broke out, but maybe in a better position because COVID-19 effects everyone, not just those at the margins of society that can easily be ignored like gay men and drug users.

Do you think you're going to wait to start up again until you get sick and develop antibodies? Or is that part of the decision maybe?

Denver has a few hour glasses as well. Though interestingly two guys who had them previously took them off. In some ways I am kinda surprised, while cases have "plateaued" here, they haven't really gone down and have only started to build our testing capacity. Denver and its suburbs just expanded shelter-at-home orders until May 8th, which I think is a great idea (they were originally going to expire at the end of the month).

I came down with a pretty bad illness in March that even my primary care physician suspected was COVID. Unfortunately they weren't testing then unless you basically were in the hospital with critical symptoms. They just started doing antibody testing at one site in Denver for $100 a pop. Unfortunately, they already booked up the appointments for the next two weeks before I could get one. I definitely would like to see if I was exposed and possibly have some level of immunity to the illness.

And of course with hiring (or having sex at all really) there is also no such thing as "no risk." I once got gonorrhea from an escort, who called me a week after our session to let me know about his own positive test (He's one of the guys I would hire again). In some ways, a COVID test isn't very different from an HIV test. Someone could still test as "negative" or possibly even having antibodies, but there is no guarantee that they haven't caught something more recently. But yeah I agree that we need to follow the science and hopefully with more testing, we'll have more of an understanding so we can make more informed choices.

I hear you on the trustworthy provider. When I hire again, it will definitely be with a trusted regular (probably one of two guys), who I know genuinely would not want anything to bad to happen to me and vice versa. Of course, you could still unintentially infect someone, but with these guys I know they would be honest if they had gotten antibody tests, etc. Some new guy (or a guy who is kind of sketchy) who knows.