In response to posting 1012

[Guest Mikel]

The "use of statistics" is being "misused" here.

 

The unfortunate death rate for SARS started at 4% and has increased to its current rate of almost 6%. Where it will eventually lead, no one knows for sure. It is on the increase.

 

All the examples listed in Tony's posting have death rates much, much smaller than 1% - some even smaller than .1%! (Except casual sex, I have no idea what the percent is) For example, the number of people dying from car accidents today is much less than .1%. Because so many people will drive today, this may seem like a large number, but it is actually a very small percent of the actual people getting into cars. Therefore, it is deemed a "relatively" safe activity.

 

However, if 6% of people driving cars were killed today, no one would get in their car tomorrow! If 6% of people crossing Times Square were killed today, it would be roped off by midnight! This is why the almighty percent is needed and not merely the numbers of casualities. The percent levels the playing field.

 

At this point we just know that 6% of the people who contract SARS die from the infection. That is a high rate. Unfortunately, we do not know how many people have been exposed. It is a new infection, and we are trying to get a grip on those numbers.

 

It is also known that a couple of suspected cases of SARS in Toronto were traced back to someone other than a Health Care Facility. This has caused the warning from the WHO. In three weeks (the safe limit of incubation) we will know better if the infection is contained to the Health Care Facilities in Toronto or if it is out in the general community. Let's hope it is contained. The truth is, today we just do not know for sure.

 

The CDC disagrees a little with the WHO and lists only an advisory for travel to Toronto and lists precautions to be taken. Of course, those more interested in economical impact and not health and safety will emphasize how safe things are.

 

There is no comparison to the early days of the AIDS virus. Then, we knew little of the virus. Ignorance breeds fear. Here, we know a lot about the virus early in the game. Relative to the AIDS virus, the SARS virus is spread very easily - more like the common cold.

 

People will make their own decisions. But, in the decision making process, if you are going to rely on statistics, please use them properly.

[+ Lucky]

Excellent post. Thanks for the information.

[DallasTony]

I was not refering to the percent of people with the Disease dying, I was refering to the percentage to the Population. Of course all statistics can be misused like the classical:

 

The Majority of the worlds population Drives on the Left Side of the Road.

and Yet:

 

The Majority of the Worlds Car Owners Drive on the Right side of the Road.

 

Whilst they seem to contradict, both are correct.

[Guest Mikel]

Of course, the problem with SARS is that we simply just do not know exactly how many people in the community have the infection. We can only hope it is contained, but only time will tell. The CDC and WHO both admit, "It's too early to tell where this will go".

 

6% mortality rate is, relatively speaking, very high. Then, even the survivors contend that the illness itself was brutal. Caution is only prudent.

 

My message, bottom line, is do not over-react, but also, do not belittle the potential impact and seriousness of this infection. Let's revisit this topic in a month and hope...it is contained.

 

By the way... a news conference in Western New York (Niagar County)today at noon, confirmed a "highly probable" SARS case by a 33 year old man who travels to Toronto for business. Western New York borders Ontario as is only 90 miles from Toronto. This latest case raises the seriousness of the question as to whether SARS in Toronto is contained to Health Care Facilities or is out in the community.

 

And as a post script, let's remember that the most likely to succomb to the SARS virus are the elderly, those with congestive heart problems, and those with compromised immune systems. The gay community just doesn't need this virus!

[Paul Revere]

RE:Twisting Statistics

 

I don't know where you get the 4% or 6% fatality rates for SARS, but I will accept them as true.

 

What you don't have any statistics on (nor does anyone) is how many people exposed to SARS actually contract the disease. If it was as contagious and as deadly as folks want to make us think, then half of the population of Hong Kong would be wiped out by now. What is not known is how many people are exposed to SARS, but don't get it, or get very mild cases. In addition most of the deaths reported were among the elderly or otherwsise inform who already had weakened ammune systems. All of the U.S. cases have recovered. The number of cases in Toronto is decreasing, and most were related to the original main carrier who returned from Hong Kong.

 

Many peole are traveling to and from Hong Kong, China and Toronto, and the SARS disease is not spreading like the common cold, the flu or the plague. I think we are all over-reacting to this scare.

I'm not a doctor or an expert, but I think people in the U.S. and Canada are over-reacting to SARS.

[+ Lucky]

RE:Twisting Statistics

 

It is hard to know just how to react, but I wouldn't want our health officials to underreact.

The 6% stat is coming from the CDC.

[Guest Mikel]

RE:Twisting Statistics

 

I'm with you, Lucky. I would not want health officials to underreact. I think they are being prudent. I don't sense they are deliberately trying to scare anyone. If someone does panic, I don't think it is fair to blame the CDC or WHO. Panic is just sometimes the nature of the beast.

 

The truth is, at this point, none of us knows where this is going to go. We can only hope for the best. It seems two critical questions remain unanswered. The first; "Is the virus in Toronto successfully contained in their Health Care Facilities or is it out in the general population?". The second; "How long can the virus live on a surface?" The CDC is redoing a test to answer the second question because some conflicting pieces of information have it from 3 hours to 24 hours. 24 hours would obviously be very bad.

 

We will have more information in a month.

 

By the way, there is a crucial distinction between the rate of "new" cases declining in Toronto and the number of cases declining. The latter would indicate the infection is coming to an end. The former is the reality and demonstrates the Canadians have done a commendable job in trying to contain the illness but leaves a lot of questions unanswered.

[Guest Merlin]

Keep in mind that a relatively high percentage of those who contract the flu or pneumonia die, because they are very serious diseases for the elderly or others in poor health. I dont know the actual percentages but one commentator on TV stated that the mortality rate, among those, who contract the disease appears to be similar to the flu, although in the US no one has yet died of it. It is complicated by the fact that no definitive test has been available, so it is not clear that all those thought to have had the disease did in the fact have the disease, as opposed to the flu or something else.