Another recession indicator: furniture sales
I was at a poker table where one of the players owned a furniture store, a business started by his grandfather and where he had worked all his life (he was mid-50s). He claimed that furniture sales were the first sign of a recession because new furniture has the most elastic demand of just about all goods. Sure, you can put off buying a new pair of shoes for a while when times are tough, but at some point they are completely spent and you have to buy a new pair. The same is true of cars, clothes, etc., whereas even the well-to-do can put up with their old couch at least a little bit longer.