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Boston Guy
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I've been watching CNN for the last hour or so and the various commentators are keeping to the party line of not announcing results until the polls close, which seems quite a reasonable policy to me. However, the phrasing of their questions and statements, particularly as they converse with each other, seem to me the kinds of things they would say if they already believe that Kerry is headed to victory.


At one point, they seemed to be straying farther down this road and one of the commentators said "Well, enough of this; people are still voting out there." A while later, Robert Novack said "If Kerry has won this election, he owes it to ..."


It's nothing hard and fast that I can point to. But I'd sure love to see the exit polling data that they've been seeing.


Cautiously optimistic and still hoping,


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Traditionally, very large turnouts have been thought to favor the Democrats. So that's one clue.


It looks like turnout is high in Missouri, a belwether state that has been leaning towards Bush. If MO goes for Kerry tonight (and there's a massive Democratic get-out-the-vote effort going on) you can be sure Kerry won!


Predictions of an unusually large youth vote seem to be coming true, also, and that's expected to favor Kerry.


Some exit polls this a.m. appear to have favored Kerry, and that led to a drop in stock prices.


Stay tuned; we'll know soon!

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Zogby predicted a Kerry victory last week.


At this moment, when some of the eastern standard states have closed their polls, at least in the south east, and Mr. Bush is ahead in the popular vote and electoral vote, the trend does not look good when you view the exit polls for the states where Bush won. For example, in many of the southern states which Bush is winning by healthy margins, he won because of the independent voters in this state and very high republican margins (over 90 percent). However, he is losing women to Kerry by a good margin, democrats are voting in near record or record numbers and the democrats are also voting in overwhelming margins for Kerry.


Kerry is also carrying African Americans by these margins. Where Kerry may be hurt is that the latino vote is splitting, while still in his favor by a good margin, more evenly between he and Bush.


Finally, the youth vote is turning out for Kerry. Even in these states which have gone by health margins for Bush, the percentage for Kerry is still 56/43, and Kerry leads in all other age groups, even if by small margins in some cases, except for those over 65, which Bush is barely carrying by one percentage point.


Bush only had healthy leads in a few catagories: those making over $100,000 a year, rural voters, conservatives (obviously he is losing self-identified liberals but he is also losing self-identified moderates), military, weekly (or better) church-goers, the south (all other regions are going for Kerry) and a very few others.


Most significantly, the voters who decided whom to vote for today, within the last three days, within the last week, are all breaking for Kerry by a decent margin. Finally, voters who did not vote in 2000 (59%) as well as new voters who have never voted before (56%) are going for Kerry.


I still predict a substantial electoral vote victory and a margin of at least 53 percent of the popular vote for the winner, as I stated last week.



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