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Looking back from 2009


londonbear
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What will the USA be like if Bush wins? A few suggestions that might not be entirely fanciful.

 

Under Bush the rapid decline of the US economy and effective military power will become obvious by the end of his second term. At that point the further decline in the industural economy will be inevitable and the debt cruch will be hitting.

 

The Dow will still be stuck below 9,000 The Dollar will be heading towards 2 Euro. OPEC forcing the world price of oil to be expressed in that currency means the US price will be around $100 a barrel. House prices will have declined by over 30% as more default on the mortgages they can no longer afford. Lending to the Treasury to service the debt will only be sustained by high rates and overseas investors will have a crisis of confidence.. The jobs market is starting to polarise between a lot fewer high paid jobs and an explosion of those paid at minimum wage in service industries.. Medicare and Medicaid benefits are now restricted to exclude diseases and only accident victims receive treatment. Fortunately Social Security costs are starting to stabilise as life expectancy has declined by three years over the course of the second Bush Presidency. The flu crisis of 2005 and the severe winter of 2006/7 killed off more elderly than joined the ranks of pensioners. The drugs companies are still grumbling that they were forced to reduce prices after Canada banned exports to retain the stocks that were flooding accross the border.

 

The last US bulk steel mill closed in 2007 although some specialist plants survive reprocessing imported bulk. The Harley Davidsons trickling out of the Milwalkee plant are assembled from parts manufactured in China which exports complete machines to the rest of the world. After it abandoned plans for the Dreamliner in 2006, Boeing is scrambling to design a competitior to the Airbus "Superjumbo". Military and on-going deliveries are keeping the factories open but new orders have all but dried up as its aging designs cannot be stretched further. Agriculture has still not recovered from the combined effects of the El Nino and super-hurricanes of 2005 through 2007. The mid-term Wall Street crisis means the opening of the 1776 Tower has been put back a year to September 2009. One bright spot is Hollywood which is thriving now it is cheaper for the Mumbai film producers to make movies there than in India.

 

After President Karsai of Afghanistan was assassinated by drugs warlords in early 2006, his successor is struggling to maintain power. With the ignominous pull-out from Iraq at the demand of a passively hostile government there and the insistence of Britain's Prime Minister Brown, the wisdom of having a hugely expensive high tech defense system is being openly questioned by the military. Unfortunately the orders for the radars and rockets cannot be withdrawn.as the cancellation cost would be greater than carrying on thanks to some clever contract negotiations. The protests from the victims of "Baghdad War Syndrome" and the encampment of disabled veterans without pensions on the Mall are undermining further military morale. Vice President McCain's demanded that the military pay freeze was abandoned iat the end of 2005 so the contingency plans for a draft were put on hold. His appointment, after the FBI's swoop on the Halliburton executive in the Nigeria bribe scandal and Cheney's subsequent resignation and fatal heart attack, is still popular. The Iraq withdrawal does at least mean that the National Guards are able to provide armed support for the industrial chemicals convoys. These were initiated after the attacks with conventional explosives on road and rail tankers in Washington, Chicago and Los Angeles killed 25,000.

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