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Red Moon In October


FrancoDiSantisxxx
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Hell has frozen over and, on the night that a full lunar eclipse shown a red moon over the nation, the Red Sox won a World Series, after being down three games to nothing in the league championship.

 

This entire presidential election has been, for better or worse, impacted by any number of events outside the control of either candidate, most notably Iraq. The capture and beheading of foreigners a few months ago, the death total reaching one thousand, Bill Clinton's surgery as well as his re-emergence on the campaign a week before election day, most particular the first, but as well the second and third debate, the missing high grade explosives and a video tape from Osama bin Laden and many others. Some of these incidents have been minor road bumps on the way to this coming Tuesday, such as Mary Cheney's lesbianism to what Sandy Berger shoved down his pants. Others were of genuine significance, such as the final WMD report which conclusively disproved the pre-war intelligence and the 9-11 Commission Report. However, polls have shown that a majority, or well close to it, of the supporters of Mr. Bush still believe what his administration originally not merely implied but stated, and these supporters continue to belive this incorrectly, in spite of the fact that he, himself, finally refuted both his statement that there was a connection between Hussein and Al Quida and his statement that there were nuclear, biological and other WMDs in Iraq, which Hussein was prepared to use, making him an "imminent threat."

 

The list of events outside the control of the candidates includes events that some have suggested they manipulated, such as the Swift Boat ads, or Dan Rather's apparently inability to fact check, or Michael Moore's inability to say no to deep fried food OR opportunities for relentless self-promotion. But, in fact, it was not just any spin or indirect effect that Karl Rove may have had with those Swift Boat Vets, but rather Kerry's inability to respond, intelligently refute and react or otherwise provide character references for his candidacy that hurt him in August, as conversely Bush's inability to keep from repeating himself, including the fact that the presidency was hard work or to grimmace, smirk and frown, that hurt him in the first debate.

 

At this point, it is hard to say what may happen, four days out. Many political reporters and commentators felt that the new Bin Laden videotape would help Mr. Bush, that it would inspire his base. His base is already inspired. The republicans will be mounting the largest get out the vote effort that the party has ever put together. Karl Rove believes that the several million evangelical voters who stayed home in 2000 cost Bush his mandate and he intends to bring them out. On the other hand, the California Secretary of State has predicted that some 74% of the registered voters of this state will vote by Tuesday and more than one million new registrations were turned in the thirty days before the deadline. One in seven Florida voters have already voted. Rock the Vote was attempting to registrar two million new voters but had easily exceeded this goal, in combination with other groups attempting to registar this age group.

 

Many analysts are expecting a record turnout.

 

So here is a prediction: 122 million votes cast. The winner will have at least 53 percent of the popular vote and the electoral college variance will be significant (i.e, not just a few votes difference). While I would like to think this should suggest a mandate, sadly I think due to the polarization that has existed of recent, this is not the case, but I definitely predict a new president will be elected come Wednesday morning:

 

Kerry 53.4

Bush 45.1

others 1.5 .

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Well said.

 

>At this point, it is hard to say what may happen, four days

>out. Many political reporters and commentators felt that the

>new Bin Laden videotape would help Mr. Bush, that it would

>inspire his base. His base is already inspired.

 

Not sure I agree with this analysis. Anyone paying attention will be reminded by Bin Laden's own words that he is the architect of 9/11, that he planned it for years and that he is still at large. Clearly, he's not hiding in a cave. The video was shot with good production values. Note the backdrop, studio lighting and so on. Interesting that he apparently watched Fahrenheit 9/11? Wonder if W did?

 

>So here is a prediction: 122 million votes cast. The winner

>will have at least 53 percent of the popular vote and the

>electoral college variance will be significant (i.e, not just

>a few votes difference). While I would like to think this

>should suggest a mandate, sadly I think due to the

>polarization that has existed of recent, this is not the case,

>but I definitely predict a new president will be elected come

>Wednesday morning:

>

>Kerry 53.4

>Bush 45.1

>others 1.5 .

 

Gosh, I hope you're right. Earlier this week, I chanced to have a conversation with one of the wheels in the AZ State Democratic Party. While not out and out saying "in the bag" he was very confident that the trends were aligning for Kerry.

 

Anecdotal evidence points to a Kerry win as well. Hardly anyone I know well is for Bush. An Aunt of mine back in Kansas insists she's voting for Bush because Theresa Heinz doesn't do her hair properly for a first lady. (No, I'm not making this up.) A few others. A CEO I know well of a major corporation who is as Republican as they get has been holding Kerry fund-raisers. The talk everywhere you go lately is that "it is time for a change". I just road-tripped back to Kansas. Very few people you talk to in roadside restaurants and so forth seem to be backing Bush.

 

I'll be happy when this one is over. Has been a painful and long election season. I hope the Republicans wake up, smell the coffee and begin realizing what's been done to the G. O. P. and who has done it. Let them get their house in order.

 

Wednesday will be an interesting day!

 

--EBG

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RE: What is this Rough Beast?"

 

You boys are being a bit naive if you think that "it's all going to be over" this coming tuesday. It's going to be a messy election, the lawsuits have already begun,and regardless who wins the other side will immediately begin contesting the results. It will be loud and hateful and sickening. There will have to be a very clear majority to avoid this, and I don't envision that happening.

Again, regardless who takes (or keeps) office this year, the polarization of the country is going to make it extremely difficult for much to be done the next four years. Civil disobedience may well reach an all time high, and the country is going to become much more violent (not hardly from outside terrorists, but from our own citizenry) as people on both sides try to find ways to exercise their frustrations.

It's going to be savage, this future...

 

Miss Trix, gazing into her crystal ball on the night of the Red Moon.

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RE: What is this Rough Beast?"

 

Turnout is likely to be huge, everywhere. Here in the Kansas suburbs of Kansas City, where the presidential race isn't remotely tight (KS is guaranteed to go Republican by a big margin) at least 100,000 people have already voted in advance! In states where the race is being fought more aggressively, the interest in the election will be even higher.

 

Just came from an America Coming Together organizing meeting this morning to plan the final details of the GOTV effort on the Missouri side of the metro area. ACT has registered more than 100,000 new voters in MO in the past few months. In the more densely populated inner city in K.C. they've got 800 paid workers for Tuesday who'll be calling, walking precincts, driving people to the polls, etc. This morning's meeting was for unpaid volunteers who will be doing the same thing in the outlying suburban areas, where there are some significant pockets of Democratic voters who need to be gotten to the polls. Replicate this effort across the state of Missouri and in other battleground states and you can see that for the first time in years the Democrats have finally gotten their act together to deliver their voters to the polls. (The organizing effort has worked. ACT tested their procedures in numerous MO precincts during the primary. In the test precincts, turnout was TRIPLED! Of course, more people normally vote in general elections than in primaries, but this means that turnout can be significantly increased through a concerted GOTV effort.)

 

Needless to say, if the belwether state of MO goes for Kerry on election night, you can bet that he's the winner! MO has picked the losing candidate (Adlai Stevenson) only once in the past 100 years!

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