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Post convention bounce?


Rick Munroe
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Of course, you've all heard that the Time poll has Bush up by 11% -- they're all calling it "the bounce":

http://www.time.com/time/press_releases/article/0,8599,692562,00.html

 

Interesting that (to my knowlege) none of the media outlets that have been reporting about the Time poll haven't also shared the results of these polls taken about the same time:

 

Zogby - Bush 46%, Kerry 44%

American Research Group - Bush 48% Kerry 47%

 

Shouldn't they be responsible to voters to show general trends, not a snapshot of the poll of their choosing?

 

And why do they consider a poll taken DURING the convention a "post convention bounce"? No one who took the poll had seen all the convention; many had not seen much of it.

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I call this The Notebook Effect.

 

"Fahrenheit 9/11" and "Notebook" were both released the same weekend. Both had box-office legs, with Fahrenheit usually placing just ahead of Notebook. Fahrenheit, obviously, is the kind of movie that appeals to Democrats, while Notebook is the kind of movie that probably appeals more to Republicans.

 

The week of the Democratic convention was the first time that Notebook grossed more than Fahrenheit. Democrats weren't going to pay for what they could watch for free, and Republicans weren't going to watch the Infomercial from Boston so they were more likely to go see a good movie.

 

Last week, when the pollsters (restricted to land-line residential phone numbers) were calling people to ask how they plan to vote, who do you think they were reaching?

 

The people who were predisposed to watch the GOP Convention, or the younger Kerry voters who were spending the last week before Labor Day, going places and doing things?

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Newsweek has just released their new poll, which shows a similar Bush-Kerry spread - 11%. A 13% bounce. And after all the hoohah, only 27% think the GOP is behind the Swift Boat Veterans. The Newsweek poll usually skews left, to the Democrats.

 

 

Bush/Cheney Lead Kerry/Edwards 54 to 43 Percent; in a Three-Way Trial Heat,

Bush/Cheney Receive 13-Point Margin Bounce

 

Bush Approval Rating Rises to 52 Percent; First Time Above 50 Since January;

Majority (53%) Wants to See Him Re-Elected-Highest Since May 2003

27 Percent of Registered Voters Think Bush/Cheney Campaign Is Behind Swift Boat Ads

 

NEW YORK, Sept. 4 /PRNewswire/ -- Immediately following the Republican National Convention in New York, the latest Newsweek Poll shows that, in a two-way presidential trial heat, the Bush/Cheney ticket would win over a Kerry/Edwards ticket by 54 percent vs. 43 percent among registered voters. In a three-way trial heat, including Green Party Candidate Ralph Nader, the Bush/Cheney ticket would still win 52 percent to 41 percent for Kerry/Edwards and 3 percent for Nader/Camejo among registered voters. That represents a

13-point margin bounce for Bush/Cheney since an August 5-10 poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International for the Pew Research Center.

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i am surprised at the figures as for weeks everyone has said that the "undecided" was less than ten percent and that the others were fairly firm and fixed. the bounce seems to say that kerry supporters are shifting to bush; otherwise, i do not know how you can explain it.

 

however, as al gore can tell you, what is important is not the totals but where the voters are and the electorial college counts. that should be out this week for a better picture of where the candidates stand.

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Guest coololdguy

Ignoto.....nothing personal but you are living in lala land. The polls coming out this week are going to be devastating and you are going to want to close your eyes when you see the numbers from battleground states. Can Kerry "bounce" back?........doubtful but possible if he gets new speech writers and can some way get the American people to once again focus on how pathetic and corrupt this administration is. He also needs luck but unfortunately the Gods have always shined on GW. Bush won Florida by 193 votes out of over 6 million cast and lost the nation-wide popular vote by 539,947 votes. If the truth be known he probably did not win Florida but Lady Luck put him in the White House and everything once again seems to be falling his way.

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> Ignoto.....nothing personal but you are living in lala

>land. The polls coming out this week are going to be

>devastating and you are going to want to close your eyes when

>you see the numbers from battleground states.

 

Better close your eyes before you look at the latest poll. The people who live in lala land are the ones who think that a night with the Bush twins on reality TV is enough to change the vote of 10% of the electorate.

 

 

Polling Data

 

If the 2004 presidential election were held today, would you vote for George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicans, John Kerry and John Edwards, the Democrats, or Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo, the independents?

 

Kerry / Edwards 51%

Bush / Cheney 47%

Nader / Camejo 1%

 

Source: Léger Marketing / Le Devoir

Methodology: Telephone interviews with 796 likely American voters, conducted on Aug. 30 and Aug. 31, 2004. Margin of error is 3.5 per cent.

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> 27 Percent of Registered Voters Think Bush/Cheney

>Campaign Is Behind Swift Boat Ads

 

 

 

That's the part I loved the most.

 

Based on that single line, they could have also said: "73 Percent of Registered Voters Think Bush/Cheney Campaign Is NOT Behind Swift Boat Ads".

 

But they didn't do it that way, did they?

 

Nope, no bias in the mainstream media. No sirree bob.

 

Blatantly yours,

 

FFF

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