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SWING STATE TRACKING POLL


trilingual
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Here's the link to the Zogby swing state tracking poll, updated every two weeks. If you're interested in this, I suggest you bookmark the site, because it's the only free way into it that I've found! As of 8/23, Kerry was ahead in all but two of the swing states, although in most cases within the margin of error and in some of those by very narrow margins. The election will be decided in these states. If you live in one of them, it should motivate you to become active in the campaign, because this is one election in which every vote will make a difference!

 

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04.html

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Zogby screwed up when they selected the states to track -- in the last Colorado poll, Bush and Kerry were tied, but Zogby does not include it in their "battleground" list.

 

Zogby relies on online polls. I signed up and have answered a couple lengthy questionnaires. Presumably they massage the numbers so that they get a sample that reflects voter registration and 2000 results. I think the Internet may become more reliable than the telephone, for political polling -- but 2004 may still be too early for it to work.

 

Zogby poll results, and those from dozens of other sources, show up on the CPOD website

 

http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm

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Thanks for posting this site. Very interesting!

 

They're reporting some other Zogby results today, including that Arkansas (which went for Bush in 2000) has now tipped into the Kerry column. It's still very tight; it's within the margin of error. I don't know how accurate Zogby has been previously, but it's an interesting tool to watch. I didn't know Colorado had become such a horse race, though. What's that about?

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> I didn't

>know Colorado had become such a horse race, though. What's

>that about?

 

I don't follow Colorado politics, just Colorado polls. I suspect it has something to do with increasing Hispanic population, and general disillusionment with Bush miscalculations.

 

Here's another good link for checking electoral-vote status based on most recent poll. The L.A. Times website has a similar map, but half the country is in white because they don't "call" states that are within margin of error.

 

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

 

Point to any state and it will tell you date and results of most recent poll, along with 2000 results.

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Another interesting poll site is from RealClearPolitics.com. It lists the major national polls with links to each for further details. They also have an interesting selection of opinion -- from both sides -- every day on the home page. This is a generally right-leaning site but has a lot of useful information for all persuasions.

 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_hth.html

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>Zogby screwed up when they selected the states to track -- in

>the last Colorado poll, Bush and Kerry were tied, but Zogby

>does not include it in their "battleground" list.

>

I follow the Zogby site, and I bleeive that they announced that they are adding four more battleground states to future polls: Colorado, Arizona, Virginia and North Carolina.

 

>Zogby relies on online polls.

 

Zogby does online polling, but the polls they publish are regular old-fashioned polling. The Zogby Polls are paid for by the Wall Street Journal, so I think they demand some reliability. (As releiable as any poll can be this year.)

 

I signed up and have answered a

>couple lengthy questionnaires. Presumably they massage the

>numbers so that they get a sample that reflects voter

>registration and 2000 results. I think the Internet may

>become more reliable than the telephone, for political polling

>-- but 2004 may still be too early for it to work.

>

>Zogby poll results, and those from dozens of other sources,

>show up on the CPOD website

>

>http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm

>

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>Zogby does online polling, but the polls they publish are

>regular old-fashioned polling.

 

That's not what the WSJ website says:

 

The polls were conducted by Zogby Interactive, a division of Zogby International, which is conducting online polls twice a month through Election Day in states selected with The Wall Street Journal Online. Demographic information submitted by participants in the polls is spot-checked to help prevent fraud, and the results are weighted to make them representative of each state's overall voting population.

 

 

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04-0802print.html

 

 

 

>The Zogby Polls are paid for

>by the Wall Street Journal, so I think they demand some

>reliability. (As reliable as any poll can be this year.)

 

 

They're apparently not reliable enough for the WSJ to be publishing them in the print edition. But I agree, they're probably no less unreliable than the Literary Digest, or the "call land-line residential numbers only" method.

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