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How deep a hole?


AdamSmith
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Could W be too far in the bucket to recover by November?

 

"The latest Washington Post/ABC News survey offers a distinctly gloomy prospect for Mr Bush in his battle to secure a second term...

 

"The President now trails Mr Kerry by 45 per cent to 53 per cent, one of the widest margins yet recorded.

 

"...by a 52 to 47 majority, Americans feel the war was not worth fighting.

 

"A similar majority disapproves of Mr Bush's job performance. Although more than four months remain until the election on 2 November, not since Harry Truman in 1948 has an incumbent president has been so low in the polls at this stage and still won a second term."

 

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/americas/story.jsp?story=534286

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>Could W be too far in the bucket to recover by November?

>

 

Hope springs eternal! Of course, there's still plenty of time for Bush to unleash some sort of surprise....like producing the body of Osama bin Laden, living or dead.

 

For a lot of folks, Bush's credibility is in the crapper. Then you have those true believers who think anything Bush does or sanctions is right purely because Bush says so. No matter what happens, they will vote for Bush.

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>Hope springs eternal! Of course, there's still plenty of time

>for Bush to unleash some sort of surprise....like producing

>the body of Osama bin Laden, living or dead.

>

>For a lot of folks, Bush's credibility is in the crapper.

>Then you have those true believers who think anything Bush

>does or sanctions is right purely because Bush says so. No

>matter what happens, they will vote for Bush.

 

Never forget that despite Bush's shortcomings in office, he's a formidable campaigner. The bulk of the campaign is in the future. Polls indicate that a large percentage of the nation believes we're heading in the wrong direction as a nation, which, I think is good.

 

As others have pointed out, the opera isn't over until the singing of the obese soprano.

 

--EBG

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Absolutely Bush is a fierce campaigner who hates to lose. Fortunately so is Kerry, even if it's not entirely visible in this campaign yet. Pollster John Zogby recounted this aspect of Kerry in a piece he published in April:

 

...if history is any guide, Senator Kerry is a good closer. Something happens to him in the closing weeks of campaigns (that obviously is not happening now!). We have clearly seen that pattern in his 1996 victory over Governor Bill Weld for the Senate in Massachusetts and more recently in the 2004 Democratic primaries. All through 2003, Kerry's campaign lacked a focused message. He tends to be a nuanced candidate: thoughtful, briefed, and too willing to discuss a range of possibly positions on every issue. It is often hard to determine where he actually stands. In a presidential campaign, if a candidate can't spell it out in a bumper sticker, he will have trouble grabbing the attention of voters. By early 2004, as Democratic voters in Iowa and elsewhere concluded that President Bush could be defeated, they found Governor Howard Dean's message to be too hot and began to give Kerry another look. Kerry came on strong with the simplest messages: "I'm a veteran", "I have the experience", and "I can win". His timing caused him to come on strong at the perfect time. As one former his Vietnam War colleague of told a television correspondent in Iowa: "John always knows when his homework is due."

 

http://www.zogby.com/news/051004.html

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> Of course, there's still plenty of time

>for Bush to unleash some sort of surprise....like producing

>the body of Osama bin Laden, living or dead.

 

 

You're probably right, but I'm trying to figure out the thinking of dumb-shit Republicans to whom this would make a difference.

 

Is it that the war on terrorism is a war only on one man, so if we catch him, we can declare it over, and say that we won, and hope the next attack comes after the first Tuesday in November?

 

Or is it that all of the terrorists in the world are being guided and directed by one man in a Pakistani cave, and getting rid of him will turn everyone pro-American overnight?

 

If bin Laden is so successful at directing his end of the war from his location, maybe Bush's best hope is to find his own cave and run the campaign and the country from there for the next four months.

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Guest coololdguy

Don't underestimate George W. Bush. He still has millions to unleash negatives ads against Kerry and unfortunately negative ads do work. Forget national polls.... Gore won the popular vote by a 1/4 million votes..... rather, check the battleground states. A poll today in New Jersey shows Kerry barely in the lead. Gore carried New Jersey by 16%. A similar poll in Pa. showed it dead even. Gore carried Pa. by 6 %. Expect the economy to continue improving and if Iraq settles even slightly before the election the economy will be pushed to the front burner. A terroist attack in the states before the election assures "4 more years" and don't forget Ralph Nader.........he is hurting big time in states like Penn.(7%) and Oregon (5%). Also, if Bush looks in big trouble before the G.O.P. Convention expect Cheney to suddenly seek retirement and expect a replacement such as Mayor Rudy who would also assure "4 more years". Osama is probably dead from liver disease but if he is alive and suddenly captured late summer or fall... "four more years". Another danger is massive "out of control" demonstrations at the G.O.P. convention as this will help Bush among those in the middle who decide most elections.

 

Never forget that this administration is ruthless and will do anything to win ........the gay marriage amendment being a good example. Having said all of this I still think Kerry has a good chance but there is a long way to go and so if you had been thinking about sending the Kerry campaign $$$$$, please do....God, will love you :-)

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Guest rohale

I was watching the Charlie Rose program last night. The guest for the entire hour happened to be former President Bill Clinton. As always he has some very interesting things to say. One of the matters he talked about was the 2000 presidential campaign and how the Gore campaign underestimated George W. Bush, not only his campaign but his ability to captivate an audience. Mr Clinton feels that the current president has great charisma, simply on the fact that he sticks to his guns. Especially on tax cuts, he made these fantastic promises and he singly handedly made the general public forget about the word " National Debt ". These were Bill Clinton's words. He also believes that the Republicans are desperate to win at all costs. He believes that they can easily achieve this by running negative campaign ads. So far, they seemed to have worked. Kerry and Bush by all accounts are in a tight horse for the presidency.

 

I was reading the Chicago Tribune Times this morning, in the editorial page was a column by conservative commmentator Robert Novak. He quite rightly points out that for the last four months the Bush Administration has taken quite a wallup in the media reporting ranging from the troubles in Iraq, Mr Cheney stonewalling on the secret meetings that he conducted over the energy task force. He still refuses to make public his papers. The 9/11 commission, the blame game between the Clinton officials and the Bush officials. Throughout all of this one would think that Senator Kerry by now would have gained points by hammering on the Bush Administration failures. The problem is he is unable to get his message across because he can't charm an audience. As one previous post pointed out that as the economy continues to grow, the issue is becoming less of a concern within the press. The question is what will Mr Kerry have to talk about that will resonate with the voters. His options appear to be less and less. All he ever talks about are affordable health care, the fiasco in Iraq, and the loss of jobs. Good topics to talk about, but now the media are somewhat getting tired of hearing the same speeches day in and day out. The problem is being pessimistic normally goes nowhere in presidential politics. In 1992, James Carville came up with two unique themes " It's The Economy Stupid " and the other to much smaller effect " We Can Do Better ". Mr Kerry better come up with a theme that sticks and he's better make it fast. The election maybe just over five months away, but time is still ticking away. It'll be interesting to see who is running mate on the ticket will turn out to be next month before the Democratic Convention.

 

Rohale

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>Gore won the popular vote by a 1/4 million votes..... rather,

>check the battleground states. A poll today in New Jersey

>shows Kerry barely in the lead. Gore carried New Jersey by

>16%. A similar poll in Pa. showed it dead even. Gore carried

>Pa. by 6 %.

 

I thought it had been decided here that the popular-vote margin was half a million votes in Gore's favor. In any case, the polls you cite point to the possibility that Kerry will win the election, even if losing the popular vote.

 

Millions in special-interest campaign funds will be spent by both sides in the 15 to 20 battleground states. The undecided vote in New York, Texas and California is irrelevant, and Bush may pick up more of those than Kerry. That's why the national polls are largely irrelevant (although some of the undecided voters are the kind who will bet on the favorite).

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Guest coololdguy

>

>I thought it had been decided here that the popular-vote

>margin was half a million votes in Gore's favor.

 

I stand corrected.......549,000 votes to be exact

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