Colombia in May 2021?

[MRB43]

Hi guys....I've made plans to spend 10 days in Medellin, Colombia beginning May 18th.

I've had both my COVID vaccines (Moderna).

Based on facts that you know, would you go? Postpone?

Thanks for your suggestions.

[SirBillybob]

In terms of practical disruptions, watch for spontaneous flash quarantines. For example, Bogotá just announced a very strict stay-at-home edict for 3 days this coming weekend. So if you had arrived for a 10-day visit recently you’d have been subject to it yet not likely have been aware of it prior to departure. Seems somewhat a compensation for Easter laxity.

 

Often the best way to stay up to speed is to follow city hall accounts for municipalities on Instagram ... for Medellín it is ‘alcadiademed’. At this point, the reproduction number is lower compared to the capital district but things can change quickly. Surges often follow relaxation of measures.

 

As far as SARS-CoV-2 infection exposure risk, I have an algorithm that adjusts for your mRNA-1273 vaccination efficacy, state (ie, Antioquia) rolling case incidence, and cumulative regional immunity estimate. If you tell me approximately how many individuals you plan to interact with closely (ie, a good chance of exposure based on, for example, intimacy that you would have likely avoided pre-vaccination) I CAN ESTIMATE the probability at least one of the individuals within the arbitrary quantity of persons is contagious and could transmit to you a breakthrough infection in spite of your vaccination status. Similarly/alternatively if you identify your exact exposure risk tolerance (0-100% range) for breakthrough infection during the trip I can estimate the upper limit of number of people with whom you can interact to maintain that level of risk.

 

The P1 Amazonas variant may proliferate more by the time of your trip and there are distinctive emerging variants in Colombia alone that share elements of the more predominant and worrisome mutations referenced in the news. The implications are greater contagion and more likelihood of re-infection in spite of natural immunity to original wild-type, as well as antibody escape potential for those inoculated. Thus far, it is possible if not probable that mRNA-1273 would protect from serious illness viz the variants but might scupper any needed negative viral test requirements to get back home.

 

My personal take, having held together for 13 months and counting, is that waiting patiently for high levels of vaccination both where I live and my travel destination(s) is the better course of action. That said, the near future may offer a window for travel to certain regions that begins to slide closed if the spectre of immunity-escape variants worsens and vaccination protective coverage does not keep pace. A tough call to make.

Edited April 6, 2021 by SirBIllybob

[SirBillybob]

Medellín’s health care system is collapsing and out of ICU beds. It is among the municipalities in Colombia that are progressively adopting the cedula rotation for essential service use, that is, identity card number dictates days of the week permitted for shopping ... hotels and restaurants so far are exempt. I have no idea whether tourists can just waltz in to grocery stores, pharmacies, etc without a hassle. It’s one thing to wait in line due to reduced capacity, another to rely on the randomness of your social security number.

 

Why anybody not a crisis-theme journalist would want to currently visit Brazil or Colombia for tourism prior to widespread community CoV immunity is beyond me when, for example, a place such as Dominican Republic is much less affected and is very focused and bent on integrating the tourism economy into its pandemic containment strategy, with local adherence motivation also somewhat more heavily tied to gainful employment renewal.

 

Chacun son goût.

Edited April 7, 2021 by SirBIllybob

[EZEtoGRU]

Hi guys....I've made plans to spend 10 days in Medellin, Colombia beginning May 18th.

I've had both my COVID vaccines (Moderna).

Based on facts that you know, would you go? Postpone?

Thanks for your suggestions.

To be honest, I wouldn't be visiting anywhere outside of the US right now. It just isn't a good time. Save it for a later date.

[SirBillybob]

To be honest, I wouldn't be visiting anywhere outside of the US right now. It just isn't a good time. Save it for a later date.

I agree. Travel if you must, but be aware of all the rapidly moving parts and what is occurring locally. Probably plan close to departure. But, by all means, postpone if you can tolerate the deprivation.

 

Background case incidence is everything in terms of infection risk, notwithstanding inoculation. Right now being vaccinated in Michigan and New Jersey is not much better than pre-vaccination risk in California, Mississippi, Kansas, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and a few other areas ... outside of case severity. If one’s local exposure risk equivalizes to actual destination risk metrics, and behavioural risk is held constant when visiting elsewhere, travel may be more legit.

Edited April 7, 2021 by SirBIllybob

[marylander1940]

Hi guys....I've made plans to spend 10 days in Medellin, Colombia beginning May 18th.

I've had both my COVID vaccines (Moderna).

Based on facts that you know, would you go? Postpone?

Thanks for your suggestions.

 

You (and most of us) but what about Colombians?

 

As tempting as it is going anywhere where dollars are loved and appreciated I'd save my money and wait till they got vaccinated too.

[Doe Be Doe]

I was hoping to travel to Medellin soon to meet a specific person. I really want to see that area but I am hesitant to go. Also it is difficult for Colombians to come here.

 

Perhaps the answer is to arrange to meet him in Mexico or some third country that is still open? I know people who have recently traveled to Mexico or Aruba or someplace like that without trouble.

[shadowcatzxxx]

People who are fully vaccinated are most certainly traveling now. And there can be issues unrelated to whether they themselves get COVID. Two friends of mine took off for their favorite vacation spot in Africa a few weeks ago ... and after being there for most of their allotted time, discovered that the entire country was being placed on lockdown. (And still is.) Happily, they are content (and able) to stay where they are for the time being ... and not everyone has that kind of easy flexibility. The COVID situation in Columbia and Ecuador is not good right now. Quito, for example, has nightrly curfew, beginning @ 8pm.

[+ Axiom2001]

 

You (and most of us) but what about Colombians?

As tempting as it is going anywhere where dollars are loved and appreciated I'd save my money and wait till they got vaccinated too.

 

 

This is no time to be traveling out of the States. Many of us have received the vaccination, but that is far from what's happening in other countries, especially in many of the major cities in South America. I want to travel again to Brazil but cannot....

 

If you can cancel without incurring a penalty and can rebook for a later time, that is what I would do if I were in your shoes.

 

[My mother celebrated her 100th birthday last year (May); I missed it due to the pandemic. Since travel is permissible in the States, I decided to be there this year since I've received my vaccination, and she, along with my sister and brother-in-law who reside with her, have gotten theirs as well. I feel comfortable in making this journey.

 

Because I did not want to board a plane where the middle seat is now being booked for passengers, I decided to fly first class for this very special trip during these tenuous times. Currently, I feel optimistic and will definitely continue to wear my mask, keep my distance, and practice the other necessary protocols.]

Edited May 10, 2021 by Axiom2001

[Bootybuilder]

I’ve been in Medellin Colombia for the last month. Currently there’s an 8pm curfew Monday to Thursday and restrictions on where you can go during the day. And full lockdown 8pm Thursday night to 5pm Monday morning.

Might want to see how that develops. I’m ending my trip early. Big COVID issue in Colombia.

[Bootybuilder]

Edit — lockdown until 5am Monday morning.

 

They started doing curfews at 5/6pm nearly 2 weeks ago. Definitely put a big damper on my trip. A good place to go otherwise.

[vaguyD]

Yea I wouldn’t go. Despite your vaccinating they are not at 100% in Colombia with constant lockdowns, curfews and still high infection rates. It wouldn’t be fun

[shadowcatzxxx]

Latest reports of major civil unrest in several cities, in the middle of the pandemic. Caseloads out of control, and lockdowns everytwhere. In brief: Chaos. I wouldn't recommend heading there right now ... as much as I would love to visit there myself!!!

[Stormy]

I was hoping to travel to Medellin in August. Are there any updates?

[shadowcatzxxx]

I was hoping to travel to Medellin in August. Are there any updates?

The situation continues to deteriorate. The issue is not "just" covid" - which is running rampant, but also social unrest triggered by regressive tax policies recently enacted by the government. Heavy on middle- and working- class, very light on the very wealthy. (Sound familiar?) Stay tuned ... and for now ... stay away - if a pleasure trip is what you're planning. Our English-language news sources aren't covering this situation well at all.

[Stormy]

The situation continues to deteriorate. The issue is not "just" covid" - which is running rampant, but also social unrest triggered by regressive tax policies recently enacted by the government. Heavy on middle- and working- class, very light on the very wealthy. (Sound familiar?) Stay tuned ... and for now ... stay away - if a pleasure trip is what you're planning. Our English-language news sources aren't covering this situation well at all.

Thanks. Very helpful response.

[Doe Be Doe]

Does anyone know of a good English language source for up to date Colombian news?

[shadowcatzxxx]

Does anyone know of a good English language source for up to date Colombian news?

My best source? My Colombian BF.

Seriously though, if you don't know Spanish, look around for news from strongly bi-lingual countries like Costa Rica. As hesitant as I am to say it, FaceBook can help. Costa Rican journalist Glenda Umaña does a good job, and a click auto-translates her postings on FB can into passable English. (https://www.facebook.com/search/top?q=Glenda%20Umaña).

One recent post of hers, translated:

My niece asks me... what's going on in Colombia?

It's hard to report clearly.

We do know that at least 19 families are mourning because one of their own has died, during protests and clashes that have left us open from the pain of hearing and clearly seeing shots and attacks.

What began with the fury of the population over the government's tax-raising initiative has been maintained for days despite the resignation of the Minister of Finance and the announcement to backtrack tax reform.

The United Nations denounces violations of human rights by the armed forces.

In the middle of the pandemic and increasing contagion, the different groups are agglomerating. Some desperately imploring ceasefire from this torment that has had as the main epicenter, the city of Cali.

While at the same time spreading false news that confuse the population... one wonders from a sociological point of view how it has come to this point and what impact mental health, lockdown, unemployment, economic pressures can have Covid-19 provoked that has all changed our lives.

We join in prayer for the return to peace in beloved Colombia, for the 800 injured, for those who have passed away...

[Doe Be Doe]

Thanks shadow.

[shadowcatzxxx]

You are most welcome, DbD!

Your idea about meeting your guy in Mexico sounds interesting. There, you would "only" need to deal with the pandemic.

[MscleLovr]

Does anyone know of a good English language source for up to date Colombian news?

 

I don’t know where you’re based, but if you can get the TV station…Al Jazeera TV News has carried excellent filmed reports of the situation in Colombia. They have local correspondents speaking from Bogota.

[Doe Be Doe]

I think Al Jazeera is on my cable.

 

Thanks!

[mike carey]

I think Al Jazeera is on my cable.

If it's not, you can stream it live from their web site (button top right). You may also be able to find a story about Colombia that had aired previously.

 

https://www.aljazeera.com/

 

I miss it not being aired here on the ABC News channel in the middle of the night. Their News Grid program that aired at 1500UTC was very good.

Edited May 13, 2021 by mike carey

[shadowcatzxxx]

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/12/opinion/international-world/colombia-protests-biden.html

[Doe Be Doe]

Assuming I travel to Medellin at some point - when stability returns - what is the best travel plan? It seems that the flights from NYC to Medellin all leave either very very early in the morning or late in the afternoon. I would hate having to awake at 3 am on the one hand or getting into Medellin at 11pm on the other.

 

Anyone with experience have any flight suggestions?