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Complete Lock Down Coming?


DR FREUD

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An extremely intelligent and well read friend of mine has been conversing with me for the past month in regard to the CoVid-19 epidemic in the United States and both of us following the news closely. After watching our Government sit on their hands for over 6 weeks we were in disbelief of how gullible the public is. All you have to do is follow what is happening starting in China and spreading in our direction. Learned experts, doctors, researchers have been ignored and made fun of by our President and the testing debacle should be laid directly at Trump's feet for ignoring the existing problems heading our way.

Today my friend predicted by this Friday all travel by air will cease and the country will be in lock down. I agreed that I didn't feel it was far off after Italy, Spain and France enacted their own version of shutting down to force social distancing. When our testing starts to ramp up and be where it should have been 6 weeks ago the numbers will be staggering in my opinion.

Fauci has asked for people to self isolate and today pictures from all over the country came in showing huge crowds and lines to get in bars for Saint Patrick's day celebrations. This type of behavior puts MY health at risk and these are the people that will spread the virus to their families and beyond and boost community spread.

Now being reported on the news that governors of Ohio, Illinois and Massachusetts are closing all bars and restaurant. In the case of Mass they can be open for take out only.

The lock down of the US has begun in my opinion and i also believe it will progress at a very fast pace. Be prepared to shelter in place most likely for an extended period of time.

Another question for you, is Marshall Law coming?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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An extremely intelligent and well read friend of mine has been conversing with me for the past month in regard to the CoVid-19 epidemic in the United States and both of us following the news closely. After watching our Government sit on their hands for over 6 weeks we were in disbelief of how gullible the public is. All you have to do is follow what is happening starting in China and spreading in our direction. Learned experts, doctors, researchers have been ignored and made fun of by our President and the testing debacle should be laid directly at Trump's feet for ignoring the existing problems heading our way.

Today my friend predicted by this Friday all travel by air will cease and the country will be in lock down. I agreed that I didn't feel it was far off after Italy, Spain and France enacted their own version of shutting down to force social distancing. When our testing starts to ramp up and be where it should have been 6 weeks ago the numbers will be staggering in my opinion.

Fauci has asked for people to self isolate and today pictures from all over the country came in showing huge crowds and lines to get in bars for Saint Patrick's day celebrations. This type of behavior puts MY health at risk and these are the people that will spread the virus to their families and beyond and boost community spread.

Now being reported on the news that governors of Ohio, Illinois and Massachusetts are closing all bars and restaurant. In the case of Mass they can be open for take out only.

The lock down of the US has begun in my opinion and i also believe it will progress at a very fast pace. Be prepared to shelter in place most likely for an extended period of time.

Another question for you, is Marshall Law coming?

"

 

 

it feels a bit like the beginning of an end of the world movie. our mayor in LA essentially just declared marshal law. he has shut every business down except grocery stores and drive throughs. whats coming next? it is frightening to me only because our country is so polarized...we seem to be sitting in a bed of kindling and this feels like a match.

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We're probably going to see all non-essential businesses (exception of groceries and pharmacies) closed by the end of the week and all air travel suspended. I work for a school district and we're all staying home for three weeks but I wouldn't be surprised if it will be longer. The CDC recommends 8 weeks of closures to stem any pandemics.

 

I am not sure if it will go further than that. Probably depends on if people remain orderly or if they start to freak out and order needs to be restored. It's mostly going to be the call of every state's governor in whether or not the National Guard is called in to restore peace.

 

Also, I know this is a bit nit-picking but it's martial law not marshal law. Martial means related to anything military and comes from Mars, the Roman god of war. Marshal was originally related to organizing horse-ridden calvary and comes from the same word as mare. Anyway, they are different words.

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An extremely intelligent and well read friend of mine has been conversing with me for the past month in regard to the CoVid-19 epidemic in the United States and both of us following the news closely. After watching our Government sit on their hands for over 6 weeks we were in disbelief of how gullible the public is. All you have to do is follow what is happening starting in China and spreading in our direction. Learned experts, doctors, researchers have been ignored and made fun of by our President and the testing debacle should be laid directly at Trump's feet for ignoring the existing problems heading our way.

Today my friend predicted by this Friday all travel by air will cease and the country will be in lock down. I agreed that I didn't feel it was far off after Italy, Spain and France enacted their own version of shutting down to force social distancing. When our testing starts to ramp up and be where it should have been 6 weeks ago the numbers will be staggering in my opinion.

Fauci has asked for people to self isolate and today pictures from all over the country came in showing huge crowds and lines to get in bars for Saint Patrick's day celebrations. This type of behavior puts MY health at risk and these are the people that will spread the virus to their families and beyond and boost community spread.

Now being reported on the news that governors of Ohio, Illinois and Massachusetts are closing all bars and restaurant. In the case of Mass they can be open for take out only.

The lock down of the US has begun in my opinion and i also believe it will progress at a very fast pace. Be prepared to shelter in place most likely for an extended period of time.

Another question for you, is Marshall Law coming?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

"

Martial law.

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A commentator on local Fox news this eve was complaining that sporting events were not canceled during prior pandemics, such as SARS and H1N1, and that the economic hit due to canceling sporting events for Coronavirus will be huge. The sports anchor then shrugged her shoulders and asked what would become of her show. ??

 

Mayor Garcetti and Governor Newsome are making important choices to mitigate risk against some frightening odds. Sad to hear how people are hitting the bars. That will hurt us overall, based on what's already known about the spread of the virus in Korea.

 

The rest of us will need to be most vigilant.

??

Edited by E.T.Bass
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A commentator on local Fox news this eve was complaining that sporting events were not canceled during prior pandemics, such as SARS and H1N1, and that the economic hit due to canceling sporting events for Coronavirus will be huge. The sports anchor then shrugged her shoulders and asked what would become of her show. ??

 

Mayor Garcetti and Governor Newsome are making important choices to mitigate risk against some frightening odds. Sad to hear how people are hitting the bars. That will hurt us overall, based on what's already known about the spread of the virus in Korea.

 

The rest of us will need to be most vigilant.

??

 

I saw the same news cast. Not having sports Didn’t stop her from rambling on though. Next few weeks are going to be interesting

 

I feel for the folks that have to continue business as usual. Service jobs. Police fire and of course all of the hospital staff doctors nurses janitors etc.

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I saw the same news cast. Not having sports Didn’t stop her from rambling on though. Next few weeks are going to be interesting

 

I feel for the folks that have to continue business as usual. Service jobs. Police fire and of course all of the hospital staff doctors nurses janitors etc.

I anticipate my commute will be slightly better tomorrow. I'm scheduled to report for work. Will be washing my hands a lot.

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NEWT GINGRICH: I AM IN ITALY AMID THE CORONAVIRUS CRISIS. AMERICA MUST ACT NOW—AND ACT BIG

 

I have watched first-hand as the Italian government has worked hard to contain the coronavirus by imposing strong public health measures to try to get the epidemic under control. These measures will lead to significant economic challenges.

 

As I write:

  • All schools are closed in all of Italy.
  • All churches are closed (including St. Peter's Basilica).
  • All weddings and funerals are postponed.
  • All restaurants are closed.
  • In fact, all stores except grocery stores and pharmacies are closed.
  • People are urged to work from home unless they work in special designated factories

The streets are almost empty.

 

These steps are not an overreaction. The coronavirus is out of control of in Northern Italy. As of 6 p.m. local/1 p.m. EST on March 10, there were 15,113 total cases in Italy, with 12,839 active cases, 1,016 deaths and 1,258 recoveries. And there were 162 total cases here in Rome.

 

The hardest-hit region around Milan has had to improvise as its health system has been deeply stressed by the sheer number of patients. In Milan and Brescia, field hospitals have been set up in the fairgrounds as the local hospitals have been drowned in patients.

 

Because the demand for respirators and intensive care has been beyond any previous planning, doctors have been forced into the kind of triage thinking developed for intense battlefield casualty situations. There are reports that emergency room doctors are allotting respirators to those with higher life expectancy due to the limited equipment in the hardest hit areas of the province. If you are older or have other illnesses, you may simply not be eligible for treatment.

 

 

 

I really, really, really appreciate what the author of this warning is doing here.

 

I'm making my openly partisan or "political" statements in the Politics Forum. But in this forum the issue is preparedness. That is not a political thing. Facts are facts. And if the fact is that you are sick and then you die, that is a fact. There is no bullshitting around that one.

 

So I think this will help move the needle in terms of underscoring the urgency of this. Particularly for older people that tend to have more conservative ideas and are less trustworthy of the efficacy of government action. This is a time when the government needs to act, and needs to act big. The author of this article is obviously in a position to understand that government is capable of doing big things - like fighting a war. And he is saying we need to act big, and act now. He is 100 % right.

 

I'll add a point which is meant as a nonpartisan "facts, facts, and only the facts" observation about really dangerous ignorance.

 

Back in February, Rush Limbaugh said this: “The coronavirus is the common cold, folks. The drive-by media hype up this thing as a pandemic."

 

About 4 days ago, he said this about the 2009 swine flu: "Sixty million Americans infected, 300,000 hospitalized. I don’t know what the death toll was." His point was that we are overreacting, and this doesn't even begin to compare to the swine flu. We haven't even had 100 deaths in the US.

 

Both statements are incredibly dangerous. He's right that it doesn't compare to the swine flu. It's worse. It's like standing in Pearl Harbor or being in The World Trade Center the day before the attacks and saying, "Beautiful location. All is calm. What could possibly go wrong?"

 

The difference of course is that unlike Pearl Harbor or 9/11, this is not a sneak attack. So we should use the time to prepare. That is what every Governor and hospital in America is now doing, urgently.

 

There is a factual error in the second statement that is worth noting. The number of hospitalizations was 265,000. The reason I point it out is that 35,000 hospitalizations in a situation like this is a very big thing, and could be a matter of life and death. Italy has about 25,000 cases, and reports say about 10 % of them involve hospital care. Do the math. Maybe 2500 sick people is creating the kind of capacity and triage situation in some provinces that Gingrich describes above. He doesn't want that in America. None of us should.

 

The really scary words Limbaugh said are: "I don't know what the death toll is." Literally, that kind of thinking - or ignorance - will get a lot of people killed. Isn't that a fact we should all want to know?

 

The death toll in the US of swine flu was 12,000 people. The swine flu was very contagious, like COVID-19. But unlike COVID-19, it had a very low death rate of about 0.02 %. The best guess is that once we have an accurate picture the death rate if COVID-19 will be 1 %. (WHO is saying 3.4 % now mostly based on China's experience.) In other words, it could be 50 or 100 or 150 times bigger than swine flu. So if we let 60 million people get sick, like what happened with swine flu, and 1 % of them die (and maybe 10 % of them need hospitalization) it is actually on the order of a World War III.

 

We should be running toward "abnormal" as fast as we can, much as we'd run to a bomb shelter if bombs were dropping. In very different ways, South Korea and China have shown the world how we can fight and contain this virus, even if we can't eradicate it. We need to embrace "abnormal".

 

The great news is that while you may end up eating food out of a can once in a while for a month or two, if there are supply problems, it is way better than the shit you will get fed in a hospital, if you get sick.

Edited by stevenkesslar
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An extremely intelligent and well read friend of mine has been conversing with me for the past month in regard to the CoVid-19 epidemic in the United States and both of us following the news closely. After watching our Government sit on their hands for over 6 weeks we were in disbelief of how gullible the public is. All you have to do is follow what is happening starting in China and spreading in our direction. Learned experts, doctors, researchers have been ignored and made fun of by our President and the testing debacle should be laid directly at Trump's feet for ignoring the existing problems heading our way.

Today my friend predicted by this Friday all travel by air will cease and the country will be in lock down. I agreed that I didn't feel it was far off after Italy, Spain and France enacted their own version of shutting down to force social distancing. When our testing starts to ramp up and be where it should have been 6 weeks ago the numbers will be staggering in my opinion.

Fauci has asked for people to self isolate and today pictures from all over the country came in showing huge crowds and lines to get in bars for Saint Patrick's day celebrations. This type of behavior puts MY health at risk and these are the people that will spread the virus to their families and beyond and boost community spread.

Now being reported on the news that governors of Ohio, Illinois and Massachusetts are closing all bars and restaurant. In the case of Mass they can be open for take out only.

The lock down of the US has begun in my opinion and i also believe it will progress at a very fast pace. Be prepared to shelter in place most likely for an extended period of time.

Another question for you, is Marshall Law coming?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

"

All of Europe was unprepared as well. There’s no way to “plan” for these circumstances despite what governments, politicians, or media try to claim. Look at history, nothing has changed in the way humans deal with these situations in over 2000 years.

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To the OP question, I think the level of lockdown will vary. In a super-dense area like NYC I’d expect there would be some type of restrictions. Ideally businesses that are considered necessary - like drug stores - would be encouraged to remain open 24x7 to spread out the congregation of customers. I would think that the initial reaction for things like mass transit would be to curtail service but doing that would tend to force more people together into a shorter period of time. Keep the infrastructure that people need as available as possible when it doesn’t promote the virus spread.

 

I’d guess that in suburban areas that the same occurs with take-out/delivery constraints to restaurants.

(Side note: I heard a piece of what Andrew Cuomo had to say about steps they are taking and expectations of what is coming and was really impressed. Suspending rules like those restricting alcohol sales to on-premises is a wise move. )

 

Rural areas would be minimally affected, I would think.

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Today a friend who is doctor gave me some hope. HIV drug Kaletra has shown great success in eradicating COVID-19 from infected people after few doses in experimental trials in China, Thailand, Italy and India. Probably the undisclosed reason of the curve flatening. China and South Korea can say they have contained the spread and China is actually starting to deploy a plan to progressively getting their population back to work. HIV and Covid are both RNA viruses, hence they thought of trying it and it worked! Also, HIV positive people taking retrovirals have shown infection rates dramatically lower than the rest of the population. Hopefully this means we won’t have a travel ban and imposed self-isolation for too long.

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Today a friend who is doctor gave me some hope. HIV drug Kaletra has shown great success in eradicating COVID-19 from infected people after few doses in experimental trials in China, Thailand, Italy and India. Probably the undisclosed reason of the curve flatening. China and South Korea can say they have contained the spread and China is actually starting to deploy a plan to progressively getting their population back to work. HIV and Covid are both RNA viruses, hence they thought of trying it and it worked! Also, HIV positive people taking retrovirals have shown infection rates dramatically lower than the rest of the population. Hopefully this means we won’t have a travel ban and imposed self-isolation for too long.

 

Finally some promising news!!! Thanks for sharing this!!!

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To the OP question, I think the level of lockdown will vary. In a super-dense area like NYC I’d expect there would be some type of restrictions. Ideally businesses that are considered necessary - like drug stores - would be encouraged to remain open 24x7 to spread out the congregation of customers. I would think that the initial reaction for things like mass transit would be to curtail service but doing that would tend to force more people together into a shorter period of time. Keep the infrastructure that people need as available as possible when it doesn’t promote the virus spread.

 

I’d guess that in suburban areas that the same occurs with take-out/delivery constraints to restaurants.

(Side note: I heard a piece of what Andrew Cuomo had to say about steps they are taking and expectations of what is coming and was really impressed. Suspending rules like those restricting alcohol sales to on-premises is a wise move. )

 

Rural areas would be minimally affected, I would think.

NYC and Long Island would be easy to seal off at the bridges and tunnels, if it comes to that. I’d hate to be stuck there, though.

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All of Europe was unprepared as well. There’s no way to “plan” for these circumstances despite what governments, politicians, or media try to claim. Look at history, nothing has changed in the way humans deal with these situations in over 2000 years.

 

I think it's important to counter this idea that "government sucks, government has always sucked, and we know that government sucks because we ignore them because we think they suck. They are basically hysterical dipshits." That's not a verbatim quote. But it captures some of the rhetoric and thinking.

 

Right now, New Gingrich is saying the US need to plan big, and plan now. Is he a dipshit?

 

If your point is that you can't "plan" for a specific virus that never existed before, you are obviously right.

 

That said, you can "plan" for broad global pandemics. South Korea, in fact, did. That is why they have one of the lowest infection rates and death rates in the world. Meanwhile, other countries got rid of global pandemic planning teams.

 

This crisis will make it absolutely clear that "preparedness" requires two things: individual action, and collective action through government. If Gingrich can embrace the idea that we need government to urgently plan big and plan now, we all ought to be able to agree.

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1102777/south-korea-covid-19-daily-new-cases/

 

That South Korea chart right there is a huge reason to be hopeful. They got on top of it. So the government is aggressively practicing "test, trace, treat". And it is working. New daily cases are down something like 90 % or 95 % from the daily peak - at least for now. And they seem to have some of the best protocols in the world for keeping people who do get sick alive. The most important part of that is planning to not have their hospital and ICU systems pushed beyond capacity by controlling the flow of sick patients through aggressive testing and tracing.

 

South Korea has the benefit of having had to learn from their mistakes on past outbreaks. So I suppose you could argue it proves your point. At some point in the past, they could not plan for something nobody could have expected. But it also proves my point. They are doing their best to plan based on the information they actually have.

 

If "nothing has changed in the way humans deal with these situations in over 2000 years", South Korea's infection rate would be going through the roof right now, rather than going down. The Spanish flu, the worst pandemic on record, had a death rate of 2.5 %. COVID-19 appears to have a death rate of about 10 % in Italy right now, which is the global outlier. So this could be just as deadly as the Spanish flu in some places. Unless we use everything we have learned and plan to contain it and treat it in a way we simply didn't know how to 100 years ago.

 

Sorry, but this notion that "nothing has changed" is just transparently wrong. If nothing had changed, we'd both probably be dead by now. Back when the Spanish flu hit, the average person died at 53, anyway. Partly because nobody knew how to save 30 year olds who got the Spanish flu.

 

Right now the global chart is looking exactly the opposite of South Korea. Cases are going up exponentially. The world (the yellow line) has now exceeded the number of total cases in Wuhan, which necessitated a draconian government crackdown. And the crackdown did save a countless number of lives. What is happening right now in Italy is what would have happened all over China if the government had not aggressively planned, mitigated, and contained. Global leaders have clearly now gotten the memo, and similarly draconian measures are now ramping up worldwide. Tha

 

Governments that plan stop you and me from dying. Governments that do not plan are essentially saying to you and me: "Go ahead and get sick. Go ahead and die. Go ahead and infect as many people as you want. Go ahead and get doctors and nurses trying to treat you sick. Who gives a shit? We can't plan, anyways." Even in South Korea, one "super spreader" affiliated with the church that was at the center of a mass outbreak got a whole bunch of people sick by assuming this was just the flu, and it would go away.

 

If you and I get sick, we actually don't have to worry about government planning. We have to worry about a government employee deciding whether we live or die. And that is not a hypothetical. That is reality in some provinces in Italy right now. They don't have ICU capacity for all the patients who are sick. So doctors are deciding that the 40 year old gets life-saving care, and the 60 year old doesn't. And that doctor is a government employee, because it is a single-payer government system.

 

You can argue it makes your point. Italy did not plan well enough. South Korea planned better. And that actually is my point. The governments that plan better reduce infections, and actually save the lives of people like you and me.

 

South Korea has not contained the virus. But South Korea and a few other countries have demonstrated great models for fighting this and saving many lives.

 

That said, we don't have a clue how long this goes on, and when things can get back to normal. And even if South Korea could gradually get the number of new infections to 15, or 5, or 3, does that mean things can go back to normal? Probably not. Because not to long ago somebody said that we only have 15 infections in the US, and pretty soon it will just magically go away. Which was a splendid example of the tragic human cost of just dismissing the need for government and science to work together, and plan to save lives.

 

My hope is that once people get past denial and ignorance, in part because everyone will see with their own eyes how the death toll rises, we can all agree that some level of "semi-normal" is possible. This virus will either die on its own, after it takes a horrific number of people with it, or we will find a vaccine - which, by the way, will be the result of massive government planning and coordination, just like it was with AIDS.

 

What seems likely to happen in South Korea and China is some kind of gradual return to normal. And there will be government plans in place to very aggressively jump on and contain any future outbreak before it can spread out, like it did from Wuhan. Until we have a vaccine, that will more likely than not be the "new normal".

 

Right now governments around the world (like through their government-run CDCs and public universities) are also racing to find out which drugs developed to treat which past contagions, including AIDS, are most effective in keeping seriously ill people alive.

 

Optimism grows that drugs from past outbreaks may treat coronavirus

 

So before you trash the efficacy of "government planning", you might want to pay some respect to this government planner, who almost died recently thanks to COVID-19. His name is Wang Guangfu.

 

Chinese expert who came down with Wuhan coronavirus after saying it was controllable thinks he was infected through his eyes

 

 

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He's a leading expert at Peking University, one of the best public research universities in China. He was one of the heroes in the fight to successfully contain SARS. Like countless scientists and medical professionals, he is all in on this, and putting his own life on the line to saves lives.

 

He contracted COVID-19 because it is very contagious. Despite his best efforts to protect himself, the virus got inside him. That right there is a scary story about what we are up against. Even the smartest people are vulnerable, due to undetectable minor errors.

 

He is alive today in part because of the drug Kaletra, one of the experimental drugs which appears to be effective in treatment. The UK has banned the export of Kaletra. They want to stockpile it for its own citizens. So the fact that these drugs exists, and that the UK is stockpiling to treat their own sick citizens, is all a function of government planning to save lives.

 

100 years ago, none of this existed. Wang Guangfa would more likely than not have been dead by 53, anyway.

 

I think this story is a nice parable about what we face. Government is far from perfect. Like any organization of humans, they fuck up all the time. Just like an expert and Chinese hero for helping to defeat SARS could fuck up when he forgot to wear protective eye wear, or something like that.

 

The fact that he survived a severe illness was at least in part thanks to the fruits of 100 years of government-led research and planning. Now is the worst time in the world, literally, to be arguing that nothing has changed, and the governments can't plan their way out of a paper bag. These are the people that will keep us from getting sick, and may save our lives if we do get sick.

Edited by stevenkesslar
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Today a friend who is doctor gave me some hope. HIV drug Kaletra has shown great success in eradicating COVID-19 from infected people after few doses in experimental trials in China, Thailand, Italy and India.

 

I posted it directly above, but here is the excerpt from an article on Kaletra. It's not the only drug that appears to be working.

 

Optimism grows that drugs from past outbreaks may treat coronavirus

Drugs developed in the past to treat malaria, AIDS and other respiratory syndromes are showing promise against coronavirus.

 

China’s National Health Commission recently began recommending lopinavir and ritonavir, which is sold by Illinois-based AbbVie, which also donated about $1.5 million worth of Kaletra to China after its outbreak.

 

China News reported that when Wang Guangfa, the leader of Peking University First Hospital’s pulmonary and critical care medicine department, contracted COVID-19, he was cured after he was administered Kaletra.

 

 

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-01/30/138743848_15803911196371n.jpg

 

Wang Guangfa (R, front), head of the Department of Pulmonary Medicine at Peking University First Hospital, poses for a photo with a medical worker from Beijing Ditan Hospital in Beijing, capital of China, Jan. 30, 2020. Wang has been cured and discharged from the hospital. He was the fifth coronavirus-infected patient that was cured in Beijing.

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As pandemic spreads, China's ex-epicenter down to 1 new case

 

As the pandemic expanded its reach, China and South Korea were trying to hold their hard-fought gains. China is quarantining new arrivals, who in recent days have accounted for an increasing number of cases, and South Korea starting Thursday will increase screenings of all travelers arriving from overseas.

 

China on Tuesday reported 21 new cases of the virus, 20 of them imported. Just one new case was confirmed in Wuhan, the Hubei provincial capital where the illness was first detected in late December. The update raised China’s totals to 80,881 cases and 3,226 deaths.

 

China this week relaxed travel restrictions in Hubei, sending thousands of workers back to long-shuttered factories.

 

Most of the world’s 78,000 recovered patients are in China. The virus causes only mild or moderate symptoms, such as fever and cough, for most people, but severe illness is more likely in the elderly and people with existing health problems.

 

 

 

This was predictable. As the West shuts down, China and South Korea and Singapore will have to put travel restrictions and quarantines on anyone coming in.

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